Why the Bengals Aren’t A Surprise.
Ja’Marr Chase celebrates after a catch.
As of Week 7 of the 2021 NFL Regular Season, the Cincinnati Bengals sit at the top of the AFC North with a record of 5-2 after defeating a conference favorite in the Baltimore Ravens 41-17. Something that the media, analysts, as well as general audiences would have never predicted going into the regular season. However, this seemingly shocking success should come of no surprise, and this hot streak formed by the Bengals may continue to chart its way all the way into the playoffs.
According to ESPN, the Bengals were 28th of 32 teams in their preseason power rankings for the 2021 season, not far from TheRinger preseason rankings which had the Bengals at 29th. These rankings seem fair due to the Bengals abysmal 2020 regular season which saw them rank in the bottom 5 in OPPG (offensive points per game), and 25th of 32 in points allowed according to NFL’s official website. These stats led them to a 4-11-1 record at the bottom of the AFC North behind three teams with double digit wins. Knowing this, the preseason rankings may seem fair on the surface, but let’s dive into some context that should’ve been taken into account.
Joe Burrow, former #1 overall pick, tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee in November, not far into the 2020 regular season as a rookie. Before the season-ending injury, Joe Burrow was heavily favorited as the offensive rookie of the year, essentially drowning the Bengals hope for success going forward. However, there were other factors that contributed to the 2020 failure. Top Bengals receiver AJ Green had reportedly been “underutilized” according to SI in December 2020. Green’s down year was so bad that the Bengals chose not to resign him after the 2020 season, instead signing with the Arizona Cardinals on a one year deal. Green caught less than 50% of his passes for the first time in his career, was 3rd on the team in reception yards, catches, and targets, calling for a new star at the receiver position. On top of a quarterback injury, an underperforming Green, there was also catastrophe in the run game which ranked 24th in the NFL, and the offensive line which was ranked 29th. The defense was of no redemption, sitting at 23rd according to FoxSports.
However, heading into week 8 of the new 2021 season the Bengals have the 4th best defense in the NFL, and the 13th ranked offense. The defensive shift is largely due to not only a healthy roster, but young players heading into their prime. Chidobe Awuzie has been crowned as the Bengals #1 cornerback by their own defensive coordinator after missing most of the 2020 season. Sam Hubbard has established himself as a star defensive end after a wealthy extension this offseason and two years experience. Another key piece is the trading for defensive tackle B.J. Hill. Even more to add is the return of another star tackle in D.J. Reader, who played only four games in the 2020 season, and return of cornerback Trae Waynes who missed the entirety of 2020. The combination of offseason trades, blossoming youth, and returning stars should have been a factor in the the preseason power rankings.
It’s not just the defense though, the offense has a similar story with the return of #1 overall pick Joe Burrow. But Burrow isn’t just another top pick, he’s a 24-year old who was immediately making an impact for the Bengals even with an underperforming star receiver. And upon returning to the NFL he hasn’t missed a beat. Burrow is currently ranked as the 11th best QB in the league according to Sports Illustrated. This conversation isn’t over without addressing the 5th overall rookie Ja’Marr Chase. He’s currently #3 of 187 of qualified receivers in yards per game, #2 in total yards, #8 in yards per reception, and #4 in touchdowns, more than fulfilling AJ Green’s departure. Nobody could have predicted that Ja’Marr would become a historic player in less than a year, but anyone could’ve considered a massive offensive boost with QB Joe Burrow’s return alongside the drafting of his former LSU receiver.
Considering the innumerable players who missed 2020 and returned in 2021 including Joe Burrow, the youthful stars who are developing into their prime, as well as the drafting of the #1 receiver in the 2021 draft class, the 5-2 record the Bengals hold to lead the AFC North should come of no surprise. This isn’t a case of the 2021 San Francisco Giants of the MLB where this sudden reign of success came as a surprise, this is an easily predictable outcome that should’ve been addressed in the preseason power rankings. And if the Bengals continue their dominance going forward, then the sports world needs to consider just how accurate these power rankings really are.