How Hot Really Is Arthur Smith’s Seat?

Photo Credit: Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are in year 3 of the Arthur Smith/Terry Fontenot Era and stand at 3-3 so far through six games this season. They are coming off of two years in which they finished with seven wins, due to inheriting a bad, cap strapped roster. This came from poor drafting and financial mismanagement by the previous regime (former head coach Dan Quinn and former general manager Thomas Dimitroff).

This past offseason, the Falcons spent a great deal of money to upgrade the defense on the likes of safety Jesse Bates III, defensive tackle David Onyemata, and defensive ends Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell, while trading for former first round pick cornerback Jeff Okudah. Offensively, the Falcons added tight end Jonnu Smith and wide receiver Mack Hollins to accompany second-year WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts, returning from an MCL tear in 2022. The Falcons also drafted Texas running back Bijan Robinson 8th overall and offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron this past year to solidify a run game that was already one of the league’s best.

So far, through three games, despite the 3-3 record and a chance at winning a weak NFC South division for the first time since 2016, the investment the Falcons have made into the offensive side of the ball have not come to fruition through six games. A team that’s drafted two pass catchers and a running back in the top 10 should not be averaging a mire 16.5 points per game. There is not reason for why it should take six weeks for Pitts to score his first TD of the year. Robinson should not have 0 rushing touchdowns six weeks in. Overall, Fontenot has given Smith the weapons necessary to have success offensively week in and week out and so far, Smith has failed to put forth consistent results.

A large part of it is due to Smith’s inconsistent play-calling. Anyone who follows the Falcons, or the NFL closely in general knows that Arthur Smith calls the plays offensively, while offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, simply sets the table. There are some head coaches who can call plays and succeed (Reid, McDaniel, Pederson, Shanahan, and McVay to name a few). Smith is not one of those guys. He has weeks where he calls a very good game (Packers game week 2 and the Texans game week 5) and others where his play calling almost singlehandedly holds the offense back (Lions game week 3 and the Commanders game this past week). The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402-193 in total yards, recorded five sacks on defense, Drake London had a career game, and Kyle Pitts caught his first touchdown of the year. There is no reason for the Falcons to not have won last week’s home game against Washington via blowout. Yes. Ridder threw three costly interceptions, including a back-breaking end zone interception on third and seven after a delay of game penalty. But Smith did his young QB no favors on three instances.

Scenario 1: It’s the second quarter, there’s 8:23 left, and your team is down by three. It’s fourth and three near the 50 yard-line. What would you do?

A. Punt the ball and trust your defense, who’s been very good this year, to make a stop and get you the ball back?

or

B. Go for it and risk giving the Commanders’ offense a short field, not doing your defense any favors, as Washington takes advantage and scores a touchdown, now resulting in your team down by 10. Take a guess at which one Arthur Smith chose.

Scenario 2: Alright. It’s 12:38 left in the fourth quarter. your team just scored a touchdown to cut a 24-10 deficit to a 24-16 deficit. What do you do next?

A. Kick the extra point and make it a 7 point game?

Or

B. Go for 2 and try to cut the lead to 6, but if you don’t convert, you put more pressure on your offense later in the game to convert a two-point conversion. Take a guess at which one Arthur Smith chose.

The Falcons are where many of their fans and pundits around the league predicted them to be after six weeks of play: 3-3 with a chance at winning a weak division. However, considering the investments they have made offensively, they should not be struggling to put points on the board and it starts with Smith. These are his players and his scheme. He and Fontenot chose to stick with Ridder when they potentially could have went another route. Jim Mora Jr. led the Falcons to an NFC Championship and was let go after two losing seasons. Mike Smith, the winningest coach in franchise history, had five consecutive winning seasons to began his tenure and was let go after two losing seasons. Dan Quinn, who led the Falcons to a Super Bowl in 2016 and a playoff victory on the road in 2017 was fired after two losing seasons and five games.

Conclusively, Arthur Smith’s seat is hotter than some who follow the team may think. When it comes to head coaches on the hot seat in the eyes of the national media, Smith’s name isn’t often mentioned with others, such as Josh McDaniels, Brandon Staley, and Ron Rivera. But nonetheless, if the struggles on offense continue and the Falcons end up with a sixth consecutive losing season, given how much the team has invested offensively, along with owner Arthur Blank’s track record with the leashes he provides coaches, the talks will heat up and there is a strong chance the Falcons move in a different direction come “Black Monday.”