The Sky is the Limit for Victor Wembanyama — And He May Surpass That Too
San Antonio, (TX) — Chances are, if you’ve been watching basketball this 2023-2024 season, you’re quite familiar with the 2023 No.1 Overall Pick Victor Wembanyama.
If for some reason, you’re not, here’s the deal:
He’s a 7’4” center with an 8-foot wingspan, who is already one of the best defenders in the league, as the Spurs’ defensive rating with him on the court sits just outside the top 10 at 112.9, and his post-all-star break defensive rating (102.0) would lead the league by a ridiculously-wide margin of over 6 points. His 7’4” frame and 8-foot wingspan make trying to attack the paint virtually impossible — especially for non-centers.
He also happens to have some of the most fluid and clean ball-handling out of anyone I’ve ever seen his size, with the basketball IQ to make the right pass when teams double or even triple-team him, and incredible athleticism with basketball instincts to use those physical tools effectively.
All of this cumulates to 21.2 ppg / 10.5 rpg / 3.6 apg / 1.3 spg / 3.4 bpg on 46.8/32.3/79.9 shooing splits.
Looking at those stats, it’s easy to tell he’s a superstar already. He does so many different things well, has an immense physical advantage over other NBA players, and had professional basketball experience pre-NBA and is not experiencing rookie struggles of adjusting to professional basketball.
What they crazy thing about Victor Wembanyama is: he can get better.
So, so much better.
For starters, he’s already starting to grow, and becoming consistent with each game.
His post-all-star break numbers have improved across the board: 22.7 ppg / 11.9 rpg / 5.3 apg / 4.3 bpg / 1.6 spg on 45.2/32.5/76.7 shooting splits.
The shooting splits have dipped slightly, but are likely a product of the increased offensive responsibility and loosened minutes and offensive restriction. His true shooting percentage is almost identical to his pre-all-star break percentage of 56.4% (56.3% post-break).
This increased offensive responsibility has seen Wembanyama’s turnover numbers inflate to slightly unsightly numbers— 3.6 turnovers per game, 4.4 per game per 36 minutes, and a 16% turnover rate. However, as the Spurs, who are 19-58 as of this moment, improve over time and possibly add a high-quality, starting-caliber ball handler (Trae Young?), Wembanyama’s ball-handling responsibility and overall offensive load should decrease, which will help both his turnover numbers, as well as efficiency.
Part of the process of introducing him to the league would be adjustments to American professional basketball, conditioning for an 82-game season, and staying healthy. After some struggles with all of those factors pre-all-star break, Wembanyama has found his footing in his development, clearly.
Even with the increased consistency (and dominance), Wembanyama still has plenty of room to grow, mainly in shooting and defensive technique.
He shoots just 26.9% on his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts (3.1 3PA per game), and 29.3% on his catch-and-shoot shot attempts overall. His jumper has seen some inconsistencies with form, and breaks down at times when he is fatigued.
On occasions, shot-selection creates inefficient shots as well. On 3-point shots with 2-6 dribbles, he shoots 34% — not bad by any means, and can make them like this:
However, these probably aren’t his most efficient form of scoring when he could get easier buckets inside.
Another aspect where Wembanyama can improve is defensively.
Now, I know you may be questioning that after seeing his block numbers and how quick and active his hands are for steals at his side. Yes, he is already a high level defender purely off his ability to use his elite size, athleticism, and instincts.
However, learning how to contest effectively without fouling, trying to overplay pump-fakes for blocks, not overcommitting for steals, and learning to time his contest for paint defense. He allows opponents to shoot 53.4% from opponents shots within 6 feet, and 51.8% of opponent shots from within 10 feet. These aren’t bad numbers per se — just numbers that can definitely improve as he learns the game more.
Essentially, the completely simplified version of this article is: Wembanyama is only 20. He’s still developing physically, mentally, and in his very first season in the NBA, he’s doing this:
Yes, the Spurs are Pick 1 contenders, and his team has struggled immensely. But for fans of basketball, and fans of jaw-dropping, awe-inspiring play — Victor Wembanyama is who to watch because the hype has never been greater than right now.
