How Kyle Dubas is Uniquely Qualified to Fix the Pittsburgh Penguins
Benjamin B. Braun/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
PITTSBURGH - It was the worst kept secret in the NHL when former General Manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs Kyle Dubas was announced last Friday as the Penguins' newest front office leader and ultimate decision maker. After months of whispers and a public falling out with his former organization and boss, the stars aligned to bring the wunderkind to the steel city as the President of Hockey Operations.
For those of you who don’t know much about the 37-year-old, here’s a quick rundown on how he came to be the top mind in the Penguins' front office. Having grown up in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, and having family ties to the town’s junior hockey team, the Soo Greyhounds, Dubas became involved with the team from a very young age. After spending time as a scout and proceeding to graduate from Brock University with a degree in sports management, Dubas was given the team’s General Manager job at just 25 years old.
After three years in that role, the Toronto Maple Leafs had seen enough to know they wanted to bring Dubas into their front office as an Assistant General Manager, as well as the GM of their AHL affiliate Toronto Marlies. Four years into that role, Dubas won the Calder Cup with his Marlies and proved himself enough to earn the keys to the car in 2018 after the team let go of then-GM and current Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello.
The success of his tenure at the helm of the Maple Leafs is up to interpretation. On one hand, his team averaged an impressive 108 points in non-COVID interrupted seasons, making the playoffs in all five of his seasons as full-time GM. On the other hand, they won just one playoff series in that time.
When failure occurs on the biggest stage in the biggest market, the finger gets pointed in every direction. Unfortunately for Dubas, a culmination of playoff failure as well as a publicized power struggle with his direct superior, the President of the Maple Leafs Brendan Shanahan, led to his departure from the center of the hockey universe.
In comes Fenway Sports Group, the ownership group of notable sports teams such as the Boston Red Sox, Liverpool FC, and as of late 2021, the Pittsburgh Penguins. FSG inherited the front office of Ron Hextall and Brian Burke, hired earlier that year after then-GM Jim Rutherford abruptly resigned from his post. FSG seemed poised to look to bring in their guys, as many new owners do. That, along with the team's poor performance during the 2022-23 season, led to the perfect opportunity for FSG to finally put their stamp on the organization they spent just under $1 billion for.
On April 14, the Penguins fired GM Ron Hextall, President of Hockey Ops Brian Burke, and Assistant GM Chris Pryor following the team’s first season without playoff hockey since Sidney Crosby’s rookie campaign in 2005-06.
It was long reported that FSG intended to hire someone who replicates their strategy with their other sports teams: a highly intelligent individual, who is analytically inclined and makes decisions with those tools. Back in February, I heard that if the situation arose, Dubas would be this ownership group’s top choice. Alas, it all came to be last Friday afternoon, just thirty minutes after the Maple Leafs introduced their replacement for Dubas, longtime Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving.
The straw that finally broke the camel’s back this time around for Dubas was that brutal series loss to the Florida Panthers in the second round of the playoffs. Year after year, Dubas would build around the core of young stars he had inherited of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and his biggest free agent signing as GM, captain John Tavares. Once that group was finally in place, Dubas’ job was to build around the edges of that dominant force of offense. Last season, those four players accounted for roughly 49% of the team’s cap hit, leaving Dubas with just around $42 million to fill out the rest of the 23-man roster. Granted, Dubas signed all four of those contracts while he was full-time GM.
Now, how does this affect the Penguins?
The Penguins this past season had a severe depth issue. Most of their scoring came from their top-six forwards (Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rakell, Rust). In fact, over 65 percent of Penguins’ goals this past season came from those six. The only other two forwards who hit double digit goals were Brock McGinn, who was dealt to Anahiem at the trade deadline along with a draft pick for Dmitry Kulikov, and Jeff Carter, whose play was heavily criticized all season long.
The core of the Penguins continues to perform well, even as the leaders start to reach ages in which players typically regress. In Toronto, Dubas’ core failed him often.
Against the Panthers in the second round, the team scored just two goals in each of the five games played. For reference, in the regular season, the Leafs scored nearly three and a half goals per game (3.4 G/GP). In that series, Nylander, the lowest paid of the four, led the way with three points, two of which were goals. Marner also had three points, only lighting the lamp himself once. Meanwhile, Tavares only could muster up one assist all series long, while Matthews one upped him with two apples.
While it’s worth mentioning they faced a potential future Hall of Fame goaltender, who was and is performing the best he has in his entire career in Sergei Bobrovsky, two goals per game is unacceptable from a core of players being compensated the way those guys in Toronto are. The good thing for the Penguins and their fans is that the core here has proven time and time again to perform in the spotlight.
In 180 playoff games played (40th most all time), Sidney Crosby has 201 points (T-5th most all time). Evgeni Malkin has played 177 games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (T-46th most all-time) while amassing 180 points (T-14th most all time). Even the younger Jake Guentzel, who has played just 58 playoff games has 58 career playoff points. The top three scorers for the Penguins are perennial playoff performers.
Dubas will have the job of finding complimenting pieces that can do the things the core of the Penguins shouldn’t need to do. Dubas had five seasons in Toronto where he would shake up the perimeter of the team but leave the core alone, but too often the core is what let him down. Each season, his ability to surround them with complimenting talent got better, and the single series victory in his final season with Toronto is proof of it. He became aggressive in his approach to the trade deadline and brought in pieces who were huge in the team’s first playoff series victory since 2004.
Ryan O’Reilly, Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, Noel Acciari, and Sam Lafferty all proved to be valuable additions from the trade deadline that helped push the Leafs past the three-time consecutive Eastern Conference champion, Tampa Bay Lightning. They were a huge part of the depth Dubas brought in around his core of stars, including past season additions Dubas had made, such as reigning Calder Trophy finalist Michael Bunting, former Flames and Kraken captain Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie, David Kampf, among many others.
Suffice it to say, the moves made by Dubas to support his core were never the issue. The problem was his core not supporting him and his additions in key moments. He shouldn’t have that problem in Pittsburgh. The only thing that one could legitimately criticize Dubas for was being too loyal to the group of players he gave half of his team’s salary cap. He joins a team whose captain is being severely underpaid at $8.7 million annually, as well as another future Hall of Fame center making under market value. His last five seasons of building depth in Toronto for the NHL team, as well as throughout the rest of the organization, have prepared him to be the perfect leader to take the Penguins to the playoffs and give the core one more shot at Lord Stanley. He’ll have more cap space and power than ever before. It will be a very interesting off-season for Dubas and his Penguins.
