Wait, Is There a Chance That It Is Actually the Cowboys’ Year?
Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images
Dallas, Texas (PSF) - When someone says “marco”, you say “polo”. When you see Grandma every year around the holidays, she’ll ask you if you’re doing anything with your life. When you drop a pen, it falls to the ground because of something we call “gravity”.
When another NFL season approaches, you’ll start to hear the rumblings. The rumblings have become almost axiomatic. They’ll happen whether you want them to or not. Even if they are an 0-17 team on paper, Dallas Cowboys fans will tell you “this is our year”!!
As a diehard fan of the team for over 15 years, I’ve never uttered those words. Why would I? My therapist had to treat me for something called “playoff trauma” after last year’s loss in Santa Clara. I guarantee they didn’t teach them how to treat that while getting their PHD!
In all seriousness, attempting to be an objective fan and tempering my expectations is a badge of honor for me, especially as a Dallas fan. The only way you’d be able to call me a “(H)omer” is if I develop severe jaundice and my hairline recedes even more. Unfortunately for you, I stopped drinking and I did the punnett squares for male pattern baldness — I’m safe y’all.
With that said, Cowboys fans have reason to be optimistic. In fact, I argue this year is the closest they’ve ever been to it being “their year” on paper in recent memory.
Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
Starting with the offense, Dak Prescott should be better. By most measures, last season was a “down” year for him. 2,860 yards (his lowest since he broke his ankle in 2020), a broken thumb that cost him five starts, and 23 TDs. The prevailing narrative and main bugaboo from Dak’s last season —interceptions. He led the league and had the most of his career with 15, but there are more reasons to view it as an outlier rather than a developing trend.
The receiving corps was simply not good enough for most of the year. Noah Brown and Michael Gallup were in the bottom third of separation among receivers, according to NextGenStats. Brown is now on the Texans, Gallup is looking to have the cliche “your second year after an ACL tear will be much better” season, and Brandin Cooks will don the star after being acquired in March.
Photo by Michael Ainsworth/AP
Cooks, in particular, brings a speed element and impressive production history given not-so-stellar quarterback play in his last few seasons with Houston. Jalen Tolbert had some good-looking snaps last season as a rookie. They were limited, there were some gaffes, and he only caught two balls, but hear me now and quote me later when I tell you to expect a noticeable step forward from him in his second season.
Prescott is a natural gambler at QB. He’s been that way since college and that likely won’t change as he turns 30. Combine that with a lack of separation and you will naturally put more passes in harm’s way. There’s no denying that some of the decision-making wasn’t up-to-snuff, but the tipped interceptions (or the “10”, depending on your ability to listen) shouldn’t be as frequent.
The offensive line is concerningly thin at a few positions, but the projected starting five looks excellent. Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, and a returning Terrence Steele are a top-10 line barring health issues or a severe regression from Tyron as he ages or Steele as he returns from major injury.
The running back room, despite the departure of a fan favorite in Zeke Elliot, suddenly looks like one of the deeper groups on the team. Tony Pollard leads the group after his best season as a Cowboy in 2022. Ronald Jones is a good bruiser comparable to what Elliot was providing during his last two seasons. Malik Davis is an underrated player whose limited snaps last year basically screamed “give this man more opportunities”.
Rookie Deuce Vaughn has the chance to be much more than a nice story. His size should be a question mark in the NFL, but his productivity and college tape is hard to argue with. The training camp battle at this position is one to keep an eye on. Somebody will be the odd man out, and my best guess is that it will be Davis.
Moving over to the other side of the ball, Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn helms the Cowboys defense for a third year. If the draft, free agency, and the addition of Stephon Gilmore tells us nothing else, it lets us know that this front office is hell bent on creating a juggernaut on defense. They want to make an already elite defense into a historical one.
Photo by Ron Jenkins/AP
Quinn's defenses have led the league in forced turnovers in both of his seasons with the Cowboys. Additionally, last year's defense was tied for fifth overall in scoring (20.1 ppg) and eighth overall against the pass.
After years of middling to flat-out bad secondaries in the 2010s, the Cowboys have an extremely good problem to have on the backend in 2023: the depth is out of this world. Trevon Diggs, Gilmore, Daron Bland, and Jourdan Lewis (coming off a Lisfranc injury) comprise a cornerback quartet with a combined 59 interceptions in their careers.
When you round out the CB room with college CB turned NFL safety turned NFL CB Izzy Mukuamu (who showed extreme flashes when deployed by Dan Quinn as a slot corner in the playoffs only last season), special teams aces CJ Goodwin and Kelvin Joseph, along with Nahshon Wright and sixth round rookie Eric Scott Jr., you begin to realize just how much this secondary is cooking with. We haven't even touched the safety group yet —which features a highly productive trio of Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker.
If there has been one weakness of Quinn's Cowboy defenses, it has been against the run. A prudent decision was made by the front office to 1) Resign their own guys who will aid in stopping the run (hello Leighton Vander-Esch, Jonathan Hankins, and Donovan Wilson!) and 2) Draft a position that they don't often touch with the selection of defensive tackle Mazi Smith at 26.
Say what you may about Smith and his current shortcomings or his value at 26, but you can't say the team didn't try to patch up one of its very obvious weaknesses. The wisdom of the draft strategy will be able to be fully litigated once we see an on field product, but the on paper logic is there.
Photo by Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
The defensive line is the second deepest position group on the team. Micah Parsons has established himself as an ultra-star edge rusher, while Demarcus Lawrence remains one of the best all-around defensive ends in the league.
The linebackers could start as the weakest link of the defense. Vander Esch is a steadying force, Damone Clark and Devin Harper will look to make sophomore jumps, and rookie DeMarvion Overshown looks like he will fit right in as a hybrid-type player (similar to the other de facto linebacker on the team, Jayron Kearse). I wouldn’t be surprised if mediocre or unnoticeable linebacker play turns into rock solid contributions by the middle of the season.
When you do a larger meta-analysis of the NFC, you soon realize that it is wide open. The departure of Aaron Rodgers and the retirement of Tom Brady (31-14 by the way) drains some QB star-power from the conference. Prescott is now the longest-tenured (with one team) QB left in the conference. This whole operation will come down to his play. Unless there is a cataclysmic amount of individual regression on the defense or an offensive line injury party, this team will go as #4 takes them.
Like Marlin to Nemo, I’m always telling my fellow Cowboys brethren and sistren not to touch the figurative butt as a season approaches and expectations rise. It is a surefire way to end your season in heartbreak. Something has changed this year…it’s fair to at least start swimming toward that thang, but don’t touch the peach emoji just yet! Wait, is that just my playoff trauma talking again?
