Top 5 QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft: November Edition
Photo Credit: John McGillen, University of Southern California Athletics
November has arrived in the football world, which means the haves and have-nots of the league are starting to become clear. There are a few franchises whose fortunes unfortunately look rather bleak at the moment. The good news is that the 2024 NFL Draft class looks patently loaded, especially at the most important position in the game: Quarterback. The words historic and deep have already been thrown around this class, and there is a serious chance this class contains the most quarterbacks we’ve ever seen go in the first round. If you’re a fan of a struggling team, or your squad desperately needs a rebuild, that is fantastic news. Let’s start at the top, with the best quarterback of not only this class, but the last few classes.
Caleb WIlliams, Southern California
Photo Credit: Mark J. Terrill, AP Photo
We, as a community, have a terrible habit of throwing the “generational” label around too much when it comes to prospects. It seems that every year, we unfairly stamp very good prospects as generational talents, penning them as future Hall of Famers and MVPs when their ceilings may not quite be that high. To be generational is to be transcendent; To earn that label, you have to be more than a great player. You have to be born to do this.
Caleb Williams was born to play quarterback. He’s dominated from the moment he stepped on the field, all the way back to his pop warner days. He’s won everywhere he’s been, and collected the highest individual accolades possible throughout his career. However good you think this guy is, he’s probably better. Williams is the rare exception where the “generational” label is entirely fair. He’s in the Andrew Luck/Trevor Lawrence tier of QB prospects, where you can almost guarantee his success at the next level. They’ve been calling him “Superman” since high school, and he’s absolutely worthy of such a nickname.
Williams’ defining trait, and perhaps the reason he is head and shoulders above past QB prospects, is his downright ludicrous ability to make plays out of structure. Now, the NFL is no stranger to quarterback prospects that are good on the move; In fact, it’s practically a requirement for young quarterbacks these days. The difference is, even when you draft a quarterback who can make plays on the move, you expect the quality of play to go down outside of the pocket. You expect accuracy to dip, for the amount of possible throws he can make to decrease, and so on. This is not the case with Williams. Caleb Williams is an exceptionally rare player in that he’s the same guy in or outside of the pocket. He doesn’t lose accuracy on the run, and his asinine arm talent allows him to make any throw from anywhere. He has a tremendous feel for how to escape pass rushers, and his athleticism allows him to run away from anyone. The brightest minds in football have already started to compare Williams to players like Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. If you were building a quarterback in a lab to play in today’s NFL, he’d look pretty similar to Caleb Williams.
None of that is to say Caleb doesn’t have his warts. As of now, Williams greatest downfall is his habit of holding onto the ball too long. WIlliams can make any play at any time, and he knows that, But he does sometimes hunt too hard for the big play instead of taking short gains. That habit will have to die at some point, but he can get away with it now because he’s simply too good for college football. His necessity to make big plays also shows up on most of his turnovers, as his interceptions will often be as a result of trying to make crazy big plays instead of reasonable small ones. The good news? Those are two very, very correctable flaws, and it’s hard to find anything else really problematic in Williams’ game. For an NFL coach, for a player as good as Williams to have so few blemishes is a dream come true. Don’t overthink this- despite how many games USC ends up losing or how many media members attempt to nitpick his game for hot takes, Caleb Williams will be the number one pick in the 2024 NFL draft, and he should be.
2. Drake Maye, North Carolina
Photo Credit: Grant Halverson, Getty Images
I can’t sit here and tell you all that this draft class has two generational quarterbacks, because doing so would defeat the meaning of the word. What I am saying is that if Drake Maye was in the 2025 draft, we’d be talking about how crazy it is that we have generational QB talents in back-to-back drafts.
Drake Maye is no one’s consolation prize. He’s QB2 for me, as he is for practically everyone else, but that gap is very small in my view. In fact, I think the only thing that really separates Williams and Maye for me is how William’s play style perfectly suits the modern NFL, with his exceptionally rare ability outside the pocket. That said, Maye should not be mistaken for being a pocket statue. While he doesn’t have the Olympian-esque athleticism of Williams, Maye is plenty athletic for his size. He’s a bigger quarterback at 6’4 and 229 pounds, but he moves very well. He’s a genuine factor as a runner, and he’s a good scrambler as well. He doesn’t have Williams’ elite speed, but Maye moves as well as he needs to to create throwing opportunities on the run. Where Maye does the vast majority of his damage, however, is in the pocket. And boy, does this guy do a lot of damage. “Surgical” is perhaps the only accurate way to describe Maye’s ability as a passer. He’s deadly accurate, with touch, layering ability, and arm strength. He will destroy you from the pocket and there’s not much you can do about it. There is nothing- nothing- that Maye cannot do on the field.
Maye still has his weaknesses. He is a very good processor for his age, but he’s not immune to misreads. He has room to go in that regard, and if he is going to reach his ceiling as a quarterback, he has to get better there. Furthermore, for as many good plays as Maye makes on the run, his accuracy dips on the move. And for negatives…that’s about it. Like Williams, beyond one to two flaws, attempting to find other negatives in Maye’s game feels more like nitpicking than proper analysis. This is a franchise talent. This is a future all-pro. This is what a quarterback looks like. He won’t make it past pick two come April; And depending on who you ask, he shouldn’t make it past pick one.
3. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Photo Credit: Lindsey Wasson, AP Photo
It’s not very often you see truly unique prospects in the draft. We get elite talents every year, but so many players have come and gone throughout the history of this league that almost every player has a solid comparison by the time draft day rolls around.
Almost.
Michael Penix’s combination of skills and unique physical profile make him something that we haven’t really seen in this league before. But what makes Penix truly unique is his story. As most know by now, Penix started his career at Indiana, where he displayed exciting talent and played in some big games. But his tenure as a hoosier was defined instead by his inability to stay on the field. Penix suffered injury after injury at Indiana, including multiple ACL tears on the same knee and a serious shoulder injury. After four years as a Hoosier, Penix opted for a change of scenery, looking for any school that would clear him medically, much less give him playing time. He landed at Washington, and what followed was one of the single most impressive transformations we’ve seen in the history of this game.
Penix isn’t the same player we saw at Indiana. The injuries have clearly changed how he plays quarterback, from both a physical and mental standpoint. His playstyle is much less run-oriented, both due to his decrease in athleticism and need to protect his body. But the player that Penix has become is not a shell of himself, or a lesser quarterback in any way; Instead, he’s emerged as one of the best players in the country, and a premier draft prospect. Penix has forced himself to become a quarterback who wins from the pocket, and he’s now a Heisman contender because of it. Penix is a truly brilliant passer of the football. His accuracy is top notch, with the ability to make pinpoint passes to any area of the field. Some guys have rocket launchers for arms; Penix’s is more akin to a blaster from Star Wars. It feels like all his throws are lasers, with low arcs and exceptional speed. Adding to Penix’s uniqueness is his unorthodox throwing motion. It’s tight and whip-like, with very little lower-body motion to go with it. Him being left-handed doesn’t help the aesthetic, either. And yet, it works. The ball absolutely explodes out of Penix’s hand, and he’ll routinely wait until the very last minute to throw the ball, because he can. He’s a gunslinger, through and through. Some will refer to Penix as a “statue” because of how often he remains in the pocket, likely to protect his lower body. I disagree with this assessment. I don’t see Penix as a player who’s reluctant to leave the pocket if the situation calls for it. Washington’s staff will trust him to run some play action and once in a blue moon, they’ll call a designed run for him. Penix’s best work simply comes from the pocket these days, and his best work is better than just about everyone else’s.
The negatives with Penix are pretty clear and pretty straightforward: His medical history is terrifying, to say the least. The fact of the matter is, there will be a lot of NFL team doctors who will not clear their teams to draft Michael Penix. There are teams who are going to need quarterbacks on draft day that will not draft him because of his injury history. That isn’t just because of the laundry list of ailments from Indiana; A long history of injuries is one thing, but injuries that distinctly change how a player plays the game are large red flags.
But Michael Penix is no stranger to beating the odds. He’s no stranger to overcoming critics, or silencing doubters, or making something out of nothing. He does it every single time he steps on the field. He has the talent, toughness, and willpower to do it again, and make his wildest dreams come true in the process. All he needs is one team to believe in him.
4. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Photo Credit: Isaiah Hole, Yahoo
Quarterbacks come in all different shapes and sizes. In this league, we have tall quarterbacks, short quarterbacks, fast quarterbacks, slow quarterbacks, and everything in between. But every year, in every quarterback class, there’s one specific kind of guy: One with every tool you could ask for from a signal-caller, with a need for development and NFL coaching. This year’s edition is the uber-talented JJ McCarthy. Michigan’s signal caller is a former 5 star prospect, and his scouting report certainly matches the recruiting profile. Mccarthy’s most prominent tool is his golden arm; The definition of “arm talent” fluctuates from person to person, but whatever you think it is, McCarthy has it. Crazy arm strength, funky arm sloths, on the move, the whole nine yards. This guy puts some downright psychotic throws on tape, and as a result, the highlights are a joy to watch.
The lowlights are, well, less fun.
Since JJ is this year’s raw, hyper-talented QB prospect, that means that the negatives are about what you’d expect them to be. For all the electrifying raw talent he has, Mccarthy definitely needs a fair amount of seasoning. His footwork is inconsistent, and will definitely need to get cleaned up at the next level. In addition, for every brilliant throw he makes, there are definitely some egregious misses. Said misses can sometimes be attributed to his inconsistent footwork. There are also valid concerns about McCarthy’s processing, and how he reads the field when his first read isn’t open.
That might sound like McCarthy is a worrisome prospect, or someone with too many flaws to gamble on. I don’t believe this case. He, like any college quarterback, has his downsides. But the potential reward to go with the risk is tantalizing. WIth his elite arm talent, paired with his fantastic rushing ability, McCarthy absolutely has the ability to be the NFL’s next big thing if put in the right situation. As long as he puts the work in- and given how those at Michigan rave about him, that seems like a given- I fully believe he can be a star at the next level.
5. Bo Nix, Oregon
Photo Credit: Troy Wayrynen, USA Today Sports
What a long, long way we’ve come. Everyone knows the Bo Nix story by now: 5-star prospect, goes to the school where his dad played QB, starts really hot, hits a wall, plays poorly for 3 years, transfers to Oregon… and the rest is history. It’s truly one of the most fascinating stories we’ve seen in recent CFB history. So how exactly does a guy go from prized recruit and future of Auburn football to one of the biggest busts in program history, and back to being a Heisman front-runner on the other side of the country?
Well, to put it simply, you get him to chill the hell out and throw some checkdowns. Oh, and get him to have a baby, apparently?
Jokes aside, the best way to describe Nix’s new playstyle- and the reason he’s now a first-round player- is mature. Nix grew up, literally and metaphorically, when he got to Eugene. On the field, he’s more composed and in control than he ever was at Auburn. The 5-star talent and the ability to make some crazy plays is still there, but Nix’s game is no longer predicated on the wild stuff. Instead, his playstyle is methodical, with a focus on moving the chains and moderate gains. He still uncorks the deep ball when the moment calls for it, but they aren’t the center of his game. He simply is a much smarter quarterback than he was at Auburn, and his future is much brighter as a result.
The downside with Nix is that, because of his complicated past, there isn’t certainty that the player that is dominating at Oregon will be the same player at the nxt level. The fear is that Nix, once he leaves the cozy confines of Autzen Stadium, will turn back into a pumpkin. It’s hard to imagine him unlearning all he’s learnt once he’s not in college anymore, but it’s not a given. The other big concern about Nix is that perhaps his playstyle has swung too far in the opposite direction. Nix throws an awful lot of short passes these days, and the “checkdown merchant” moniker has started to follow him around. I don’t think he’s quite dependant enough on checkdowns to earn that title, but his conservative style won’t be for everybody. But for teams who run a run-heavy system that focuses on getting the ball to talented playmakers quickly, Nix will make a fine fit. Nix is a great lesson in perseverance, determination, and reinventing yourself without erasing the old you completely. He’s a unique player and person whom I cannot wait to watch on Sundays.
