Isaac Nielsen’s Final 2023 NFL Mock Draft (With Trades)
On Thursday night, dozens of prospects will descend on Kansas City in hopes of being selected in the first round. Image: NFL
The wait is almost over! Fans of all 32 NFL teams have undoubtedly been counting down the days to the 2023 NFL Draft, scheduled to take place on April 27-29. The draft represents an opportunity for bad teams to get better, and for good teams to retool and continue to compete for championships. Meanwhile, for fans, it serves as a metaphorical desert oasis, offering a break in the six to seven months without football. It’s a chance to get excited about the future, and offers hope.
The predominant way in this era that fans get excited for the festivities is with mock drafts. We all like to believe that we could easily do the job of any NFL general manager, and like to prove as much with mock drafts and pre-draft speculation.
That being said, below is my final simulation of the first round of the 2023 draft. Much has changed since PSF Mock Draft 1.0 in mid-February, including a trade for the first overall pick. Thus, this mock draft has been significantly adjusted. Plus, for the sake of accuracy, this version includes hypothetical trades. Without further ado, here is the final version of my 2023 NFL Mock Draft.
1. Carolina Panthers
Pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
On March 10, the Panthers moved up eight spots in a blockbuster trade that sent a huge package, including DJ Moore and two first-round picks, to Chicago. It was unclear for around a month who the team would target as a result of the move, but the QB seemed to answer that question himself. He announced last week that he was canceling his remaining pre-draft visits, leading experts to assume he’ll be taken with the first pick.
2. Houston Texans
Pick: Will Anderson, Jr., EDGE, Alabama
In a somewhat shocking turn of events, the Texans could look to fill a need other than quarterback this year. Believed to be sold on Bryce Young, the brass in Houston “isn’t sold” on the other quarterbacks, including CJ Stroud. Meanwhile, sources close to the Texans have reported that the team has Anderson ranked number one on their draft board. They’ll attempt to solve the QB problem elsewhere, and take the second Crimson Tide prospect and top defender in the draft.
TRADE
Arizona Cardinals receive: No. 11 Pick, 2023 2nd Rd (#41 OVR), 2024 1st Rd, 2025 2nd Rd
Tennessee Titans receive: No. 3 Pick
In the first blockbuster trade on draft night, the Titans give up a haul to move up eight spots and grab their quarterback of the future. The Cardinals move just outside the top ten but are still able to grab an elite prospect while stockpiling multiple firsts and seconds.
3. Tennessee Titans
Pick: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
With a QB room currently occupied by the aging Ryan Tannehill (who’s a free agent after this season) and Malik Willis (who looked terrible in his rookie year), the Titans are thrilled to find an elite prospect like Stroud at third overall. They flocked to Ohio State’s pro day a few weeks ago to watch him, and seem to be sold. Plus, head coach Mike Vrabel is a former Buckeye himself.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The price to move up to #3 seemed more than reasonable for the Colts to have the opportunity to nab Stroud. Reasonable, that is, for everyone but GM Chris Ballard. They reportedly have Levis ranked higher than Richardson on their draft board, as they need someone who has the ability to start right away. While he’s a big, strong prospect that possesses an impressive arm, he sometimes fails to progress from his first read and there are some questions about his accuracy. Nevertheless, Levis has the upside the management in Indianapolis is looking for in its top draft selection.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The fourth quarterback taken in the top five, Richardson has the highest upside of any prospect. The Seahawks just signed Geno Smith to a three-year deal, but Richardson won’t be ready to start day one anyway. He’ll be able to learn under Smith, fleshing out the parts of his game that aren’t yet on par with his one-of-a-kind athletic ability. Geno, conveniently enough, has a contract that’s structured in a way that the Seahawks can move on if and when Richardson is ready to take the reins.
6. Detroit Lions
Pick: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Last year’s worst-ranked defense shores up its front seven for the second year in a row. Although they took Aidan Hutchinson at No. 2 overall last year, they reportedly “have a high grade” on Wilson and have looked into him with their first pick. Wilson can come in and contribute to a Lions defense that has trouble stopping the run with his ability to quickly shed would-be blockers and great straight-arm move.
TRADE
Las Vegas Raiders receive: No. 10 Pick, 2023 2nd Rd (#62 OVR)
Philadelphia Eagles receive: No. 7 Pick
If there’s one trait Eagles GM Howie Roseman exhibits during his drafts, it’s that he likes to move around the board. This year, he sees the best defensive lineman in the class still on the board at seventh overall and also sees the Bears sitting at ninth with the potential to take him. The Raiders see all four of the top QBs off the board and are more than willing to move down a few spots to stockpile a second-round pick.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Jumping up to seventh overall, the Eagles secure a player that many scouts believe could be the best prospect in the class. He’s had his share of off-field issues, leaving GMs with a few question marks. On the field, though, he’s a destructive force that can fortify an aging, high-powered defensive line. Philly doesn’t take long to replace Pro Bowl DT Javon Hargrave, who they let walk in free agency.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Falcons continue to flesh out their defense with the best corner in the draft. Gonzalez, who’s said by some to be a “nearly flawless” prospect, will be a great fit opposite A.J. Terrell, with Jessie Bates joining them in the defensive backfield. While there are concerns about his tackling ability, Gonzalez is a ball-hawking corner that should log plenty of picks right from the start.
9. Chicago Bears
Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
With Jalen Carter off the board, the Bears turn their attention to the offensive line and add another young piece to help flesh it out. Skoronski developed right in their backyard at Northwestern, and their scouts, as well as Poles himself, have attended several of his games. Despite concerns about his shorter arms, he’s considered by many to be the most polished blocker in the class. He may have to make the switch to guard, but Chicago should have an anchor in its offensive line for years to come.
10. Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
After moving down to tenth, the Raiders get to address the position they’re constantly in need of: cornerback. They added a few depth pieces in free agency like Duke Shelley and David Long, Jr., but are still in need of someone who can lock down the outside. Witherspoon is an NFL-ready ball hawk who can slide into that role and start on day one.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Cardinals already won the draft by stockpiling first and second-round picks, and they begin to use those picks by filling their corner spot, a major position of need. Banks is a bit of a reach for them at 11, but the team takes him, not looking to mess around and throw anything away. He’s a big, physical corner who can match up with any receiver on the field.
12. Houston Texans
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
It seems the Texans have missed out on their chance to take an elite QB prospect, so they try to flesh out their roster for Davis Mills, and whoever they end up with in the future. Smith-Njigba is the top wideout in the class, and clearly shined at his pro day. Despite missing almost all of the 2022 season, his production from 2021, on a team that also carried Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr., warrants a top selection.
13. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
After moving up to 13th in the Aaron Rodgers trade Monday, the Packers finally break a 21-year streak of avoiding WRs in the first round, getting Jordan Love some help at a position they truly need. Second-rounder Christian Watson had some big performances for them toward the end of last year, but they could use some help behind him. Addison is one of the best WR prospects in the draft, with great speed and route running. There are questions to be answered about his size, but if they can scheme him away from big hits, he can complement the vertically-oriented Watson with his terrific route tree.
14. New England Patriots
Pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Patriots acquired JuJu Smith-Schuster in the offseason, but there’s very little star power behind him. They had an “exciting” meeting with Johnston, who is a freak of nature at 6’4”, 215 lbs., with a 4.49 40-yard dash. His long strides mean he’s an explosive vertical threat and wins 50/50 balls with his height and wingspan.
15. New York Jets
Pick: Paris Johnson, Jr., OT, Ohio State
After two offensive linemen come off the board before the Jets’ selection, they will be thrilled to land Johnson, an athletic tackle that can also shift to guard if needed. There are concerns with his technique that can be fixed, but he could potentially beat out Duane Brown at left tackle to start opposite Mekhi Becton, protecting their new QB1, Aaron Rodgers.
16. Washington Commanders
Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Commanders have had problems on the offensive line for multiple years, and with QB Sam Howell finally getting his shot at the starting job, they’ll want to keep him upright. Jones is athletic, the fastest offensive lineman in the class, and has good size metrics. The Commanders have their left tackle for now in Charles Leno, Jr., but he’ll turn 32 during the season. Meanwhile, Jones has the athletic ability to contribute elsewhere.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Joey Porter, Jr., CB, Penn State
The Steelers have been closely linked to Porter since his time at Penn State. After all, they have a real need at corner, and black and gold runs in the Porter family (his father played eight seasons in Pittsburgh and served as their assistant coach from 2014-2019). Porter possesses great size, physicality, and speed, and should look great lined up opposite newly acquired Patrick Peterson.
18. Detroit Lions
Pick: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Bresee has overcome more than his fair share of adversity throughout his college career including the death of his sister, various injuries, and a kidney infection. Despite his average college production, he proved his athletic potential, and he’s a long-armed natural athlete. The Lions could use some help on their interior defensive line, and Bresee is a monster that can do just that.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
With left tackle Donovan Smith departing in free agency, the Buccaneers have indicated that Tristan Wirfs is likely to shift from RT to LT next season. To fill the hole on the right side, Tampa Bay takes Wright, who can start on day one while he continues to refine his skills, becoming a quality outside blocker early in his career. He has the skill set to do so, as he’s a huge prospect with freak athleticism.
20. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Seahawks are a team that often takes the best player available, and that’s the case here: Murphy has the traits of a top-five pick. His measureables, from height and weight to 40 and 3-cone times, are pretty much identical to that of Travon Walker, who went #1 overall last year. There’s work to do on his technique, but Murphy could fit perfectly in Seattle’s 3-4 scheme and become a superstar.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Chargers get their hands on the last wideout in the first tier at a position they desperately need. They’ve got Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but that’s about it. Allen is on the wrong side of 30, and Williams’ physical play style makes him incredibly prone to injury, so they grab an elite prospect and add some depth. Flowers is an undersized receiver but had huge production at the collegiate level that should carry over to the NFL.
TRADE
Baltimore Ravens receive: 2023 2nd Rd (#42 OVR), 2023 2nd Rd (#45 OVR), 2023 4th Rd (#116 OVR)
Green Bay Packers receive: No. 22 Pick, 2023 4th Rd (#124 OVR)
With Flowers going off the board one pick before the Ravens’ selection, they’ve run out of receivers with a first-round grade. They could fill other needs here, but instead elect to move back and amass a pretty big package, including two second-rounders and a move up in the fourth. Meanwhile, the Packers see every tight end still available and pounce, filling one of their most-needed positions.
22. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
After moving up 20 spots to make another first-round pick, the Packers take their highest-graded tight end prospect. Without a legitimate tight end on the roster, they get Mayer, who is the most game-ready starter in the class. He has good size, athleticism, and great hands, and has a great understanding of the game.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
If Hooker hadn’t torn his ACL in November, he would’ve been in contention for the Heisman Trophy and would’ve been in the conversation with the other four QBs. As it stands, his tests suggest he should be ready by training camp. There are plenty of concerns about his age (25) and ability to get through his progressions, but he has the talent to end up as the best QB in the class. It should take him a bit to adjust to both the injury and the faster-paced game, but if he can learn behind Kirk Cousins, who has one year left on his contract, then start in 2024, the Vikings could have their quarterback of the future.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
The Jaguars end up huge winners of the first round, as they sit at #24 and a presumed top-15 talent falls into their laps. Van Ness is a large, lengthy edge rusher with the flexibility to get around blockers. He doesn’t have much experience as a redshirt sophomore who was forced to play in a rotation, but he could help out a powerful edge-rushing attack that already contains Josh Allen and Travon Walker, rotating in to keep all three players fresh.
25. New York Giants
Pick: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
The Giants miss out on the last of the receivers by a few picks, so they turn their attention to the offensive line. Torrence isn’t mobile enough to play tackle for them, but he’s a massive guard that plays a clean, penalty-free game, having never given up a sack. He can contribute immediately as a swing guard, and they could even try him at center, which they desperately need, despite never playing the position.
26. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Jerry Jones gets his guy in the steal of the draft. The Cowboys let Ezekiel Elliott walk in the offseason, and Tony Pollard is returning from a fractured leg and is playing on the franchise tag. On an offense full of expensive contracts, Dallas grabs the most electric player in the draft for cheap. He has the ability to be a workhorse in both the passing game and running game and provides another weapon for QB Dak Prescott.
27. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Brian Branch, SS, Alabama
This pick doesn’t fill the Bills’ biggest defensive need at linebacker, but Buffalo sees Branch’s talent as too good to pass up. They’ve had an elite secondary for several years, but that “golden era” looks to be coming to a close with Micah Hyde’s contract expiring after this year and Jordan Poyer’s after next. They grab the best safety in the draft and hope he can be eased into the NFL, taking over the strong safety position in 2024.
28. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
The Bengals’ offense is one with virtually no holes, but one of the few is at tight end. Hayden Hurst led the group last year but signed with the Panthers in free agency. In his stead, they signed Irv Smith, Jr., but the group still needs improvement. Washington was the talk of the combine with his freakish size and athleticism, creating matchup nightmares for every defense. The Bengals’ offense was already terrifying last year, but with the addition of Washington, it could be completely unstoppable.
29. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Kincaid is right in the middle of the elite group of tight ends this year, but he’s the best pass catcher of the bunch. He’s shown inability as a blocker in the past, which can be fixed with time, but his big-play potential should prove him intriguing enough to warrant a first-round selection. The Saints franchise hasn’t ever really invested in the position in the draft, but Kincaid is a special prospect, as shown by his FBS-leading 70 receptions and 890 yards last year.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Many draft experts expect Bijan Robinson to go to the Eagles at #10 overall, but they used the pick to grab Jalen Carter. Philadelphia still gets its replacement at RB for Miles Sanders, who went to the Panthers after the season. Gibbs may be best served as a versatile, pass-catching back who could work great in tandem with workhorse rusher Rashaad Penny.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Smith is a high-profile prospect that falls in the lap of the Chiefs, who snatch him up and make their Super Bowl-winning roster even better. He’s undersized, but ran a 4.39 40-yard dash, and isn’t afraid to play the run. In a Kansas City defense starting to get younger, Smith could work well opposite George Karlaftis, offering a faster and bendier game that could complement him well.
