Changing of the Guard - Examining QB Saturation
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The NFL is incredibly fortunate to be blessed with so many young superstar quarterbacks. From 2017-21, some of the NFL’s most talented signal-callers entered the league: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, just to name a few. The youth movement is in full effect when it comes to quarterbacks, and it’s becoming harder and harder to win without an elite player under center.
Luckily for their teams, QBs like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are extending their playing careers into their late thirties and early forties, while still producing at an incredibly high level. Whether it’s the renowned TB12 fitness and health method, or advances in sports medicine through the years, or simply an unmatched competitive drive, older quarterbacks can no longer be counted out.
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The tidal wave of young quarterbacks is set to take over and dominate the 2020s. But when the legends of the 2010s extend their primes and remain competitive late in their careers, it creates a surplus of talent at the position. Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick just five years ago, is suddenly stranded, trapped on the Cleveland bench. Jimmy Garoppolo, who in the past three years led his team to a Super Bowl berth and an NFC Championship appearance, may never get the chance to start again.
When elite quarterbacks stay elite for longer, and young quarterbacks are making Pro Bowls as soon as they enter the league, NFL teams understand that they’re not going anywhere without an elite QB. This leads to aggressive signings and trades. Denver traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and three players for for Russell Wilson. San Francisco traded three first-round picks for the third overall pick and selected Trey Lance. Cleveland traded three first-round picks for Deshaun Watson and subsequently gave him a fully-guaranteed contract worth $230 million, all within the past two years. Teams know that taking those risks, and paying up for elite QBs, is worth it.
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This leaves quarterbacks like Garoppolo and Mayfield on the outs: solid options, who have won playoff games, but who aren’t quite elite. This offseason, we’ve seen QB-needy teams decide against bringing in those two, because it’s simply not worth it. Teams like Carolina, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh would rather entrust their franchise to a rookie in the hopes that their selection can become something special. Any veteran they sign or trade for would be nothing more than a “bridge quarterback”: a player who can start while the younger option learns the ropes. And if you’re going after a bridge quarterback, why pay twenty-five million dollars for Jimmy Garoppolo when you can pay seven million for Mitch Trubisky?
Either way, they aren’t going to be a long-term option. So there’s no point in spending the big bucks, and teams know that.
Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo are in an incredibly unique position in the NFL. They were unfortunately caught up in the most eventful QB carousel in the history of the league, and may need to wait an entire year on the bench as a result. For the rest of us, this is a great problem to have: the level of talent at the quarterback position this year is absolutely salivating, and should make for an incredible season.