A New Era or a Dynasty? What to Expect from Ravens vs. Chiefs
Photo Courtesy: Sports Illustrated
Elite quarterback matchups have become a theme in the AFC, a trend that will continue this weekend in the Championship matchup.
Lamar Jackson, the consensus favorite to win his second MVP award this season, had his best playoff performance to date when he led the Baltimore Ravens to a 34-10 blowout win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. Accounting for four total touchdowns (two through the air and two on the ground), the superstar had over a hundred yards rushing while registering an over 100.0 passer rating, a feat that no player had accomplished in both the regular and postseason until this weekend. This historic performance was much needed for the All-Pro, whose playoff history has left much to be desired.
On the contrary, Patrick Mahomes has consistently elevated his game come postseason time, with his most recent performance against the Buffalo Bills being yet another example. Heading into the locker room trailing 17-13, the two-time NFL MVP led the comeback, scoring on the opening drive of the third and fourth quarters, retaking the lead on both. The second scoring drive would prove to be enough, as a missed field goal by Bills kicker Tyler Bass with less than two minutes remaining in regulation would seal Kansas City’s 27-24, their third straight postseason victory over Buffalo.
Advancing to the AFC Championship for the sixth consecutive season, this will be the first time in which the Chiefs will be meeting the Ravens, who have not made it to this stage in the playoffs in just over a decade. While this may be their first playoff matchup, Sunday marks the fifth meeting between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. After losing the first three from 2018-2020, Jackson took matters into his own hands in their most recent game, scoring 12 unanswered in the fourth quarter to seal the 36-35 win.
From personnel, coaching, and everything in between, this week’s matchup will look a lot different from when we saw these teams last play in Week 3 of the 2021 season. Most notably, these will be the best defense that either quarterback has faced in the playoffs.
Fueled by the blitz-heavy scheme from Defensive Coordinator Steven Spagnulo, the Kansas City Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the league against the pass. Allowing just 167.7 passing yards, a league-best 28.8% pressure rate, and an average QB rating of only 83.7 since the return of Chris Jones in week 2, they have been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. There is room for improvement in the rushing department, with Kansas City being in the bottom half of the league in most statistics, including rushing yards allowed and yards per carry.
This bolds well for a Ravens offense that does most of its damage on the ground. Being the only NFL team to rush the ball more than they passed (50.3% run rate), Baltimore led the league with 156.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. Although not a prolific passing offense, they have been one of the best at creating explosive plays, as they are top 5 in the league with 7.3 big plays per game.
As impressive as the offense has been, the Raven’s defense has been even better. Top three in points allowed per game (16.5), yards allowed per play (4.6), and quarterback rating (74.6), this defense is one of the best against the pass thanks to their elite secondary. While their run defense is middle of the pack, they have been fantastic at forcing turnovers, tied with the Giants for the league lead with 31 total during the regular season. It doesn’t stop there, with this unit being the second-best red-zone defense in the league, allowing touchdowns on only 40.8% of trips.
On paper, this matchup doesn’t favor the defending champions, who are a top passing offense despite their overall lack of playmakers (thanks Mahomes!) and a statistically below-average rushing attack and red zone offense. The run game has been a strength in recent weeks, with Isiah Pacheco powering the offense with 90.4 yards per game in the last five weeks, a trend the Kansas City will need to continue if they want to make it to their fourth Super Bowl in five years.
There are a few key injuries that are worth noting in this matchup, starting with a few key pieces that may be returning for Baltimore. Practicing in a limited capacity, tight end Mark Andrews and cornerback Marlon Humphrey are trending towards playing this weekend, according to Head Coach John Harbaugh. Andrews, who has been out since November with an ankle injury, would be a huge addition to the offense, considering he has been Lamar’s favorite target (especially in the red zone) in recent years. Getting back a former All-Pro in Humphrey, who suffered a calf injury in Week 17, would have the Ravens at full strength defensively.
Kansas City also received positive news in the injury department, with an MRI this Monday revealing that first-team All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney only suffered a strain to his pectoral muscle and could be available this weekend. Defensively, the Chiefs are hoping that linebacker Willie Gay (neck) and safety Mike Edwards (concussion) will be able to return after both left Sunday’s game prematurely with injuries.
This game will come down to a few important factors. If Kansas City wants to win this Sunday, they are going to need to be aggressive offensively to jump out to an early lead, which in turn will force the Ravens to play from behind, a position their offense isn’t built for. Defensively, limiting the scrambling and rushing game of Jackson is going to be critical to their success.
Establishing the run game and working the play-action off of it will be crucial for Baltimore, as it will force the Chiefs to limit their aggressiveness and ability to send pressure. No one has an answer on how to stop Mahomes, but one way the Ravens can take steps towards doing so is by containing Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. It is no secret that there is a severe lack of receiving threats in this Chiefs offense, and forcing Mahomes elsewhere will make things difficult.
