Who can be overachievers come playoff time?

While the NBA All-Star break is just around the corner, the 2022-23 regular season is slowly coming to a close. Most teams have completed upwards of 58 games, leaving less than a third of the season to play.

Apart from some trade deadline winners, the same teams that were projected to be championship contenders sit comfortably at the top. The Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers, and Memphis Grizzlies all came into the season with a fighting chance and haven’t shown signs of slowing down.

But then there are the surprises.

The Phoenix Suns won the Kevin Durant trade deadline sweepstakes and now have seen their contention rise to a new level. The Dallas Mavericks sent shockwaves by adding superstar Kyrie Irving and now have arguably the best backcourt in the entire NBA. The Brooklyn Nets, who came into the season as one of the championship favorites, lost stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant and now have an outsider’s chance.

Apart from the top-tier contenders and surprise teams, these are the squads that have the potential to make noise come playoff time:

Cleveland Cavaliers

Ever since the Cavs traded for Donovan Mitchell in the offseason, they’ve ascended to the top tier in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they’re nearly as deep as the Celtics or Bucks, but they have the star power to make things interesting. In fact, the Cavs are 2-0 against Boston and 2-2 against Milwaukee this season, respectively.

After finishing as the ninth seed in the East last season, the Cavaliers sit comfortably at the four seed, on pace for over 50 wins. Mitchell has been superb this season, scoring the ball (27.2 points per game), guard Darius Garland is a perfect pass-first star (eight assists per game), and Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are the perfect pair of young, mobile bigs to patrol the paint. Plus, new addition Danny Green can provide some valuable playoff mentorship for his young teammates.

Fear the Sword

Floor: First-round exit

This team is too talented to miss the playoffs entirely or slip into the play-in race. They might not win a first-round series against a tough opponent, say the Miami Heat or Philadelphia 76ers (if they slip down the standings a bit), but they would certainly put up a fight.

Ceiling: Eastern Conference Finals

On the flip side, the Cavs are capable of beating any team on any given night. I don’t see them winning a conference finals series against a team like the Bucks or Celtics, but they could certainly get to the conference finals with relative ease.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been flat-out bad this year. After repeat seasons making playoffs, the Hawks sit just .500 on the season in the play-in race. This is all the more disappointing when considering their acquisition of guard Dejounte Murray in the offseason to pair alongside Trae Young.

Sports Illustrated

The core of Young, John Collins, and Clint Capela is still intact; Bogdan Bogdanovic is still wearing red and yellow. So what happened to this former Eastern Conference Finals team? It’s hard to tell how dangerous they can be come postseason time, but they are certainly a wild card should they steal a spot.

Floor: Eliminated in the Play-In tournament

As it stands right now, the Hawks would play the Toronto Raptors in the play-in tournament. While the Raptors have been just as disappointing, they are still capable of knocking off a team. So just as easily as the Hawks could win their play-in matchup, they could see themselves knocked out entirely.

Ceiling: Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

Even with Murray and the recent acquisition of Saddiq Bey, the Hawks are simply not good enough to win the East or even come within games of it. Top seeds Boston and Milwaukee are just too dominant. What they can do, however, is shock the world and win a first-round series. They have the shooting and talent to do so.

However, the chances are slim. This would likely only happen if they were to slide up in the standings to avoid a matchup with either of the aforementioned teams.

New Orleans Pelicans

Just weeks ago, the Pelicans sat atop the Western Conference standings. Zion Williamson looked unstoppable in the paint, and the Pelicans appeared to be a formidable opponent for everyone. However, the Pelicans have slid.

Williamson remains sidelined due to a hamstring injury. The team now sits at the seventh seed in the West and only two games above the 11th-place Trail Blazers.

The Western Conference playoff race is tight. The Pelicans are only two and a half games behind the three-seeded Kings. But with 22 or so games left to play, there could be massive shifts in the standings, especially for New Orleans. The Pels just have to get veteran C.J. McCollum back on the court every night and manage Williamson’s rehab with patience and care.

SBNation

Floor: Eliminated in the play-in tournament

While the Pelicans have the potential to advance further, so do their play-in foes. The Jazz and Timberwolves both sit behind them in the play-in seeds, and both of those teams made the playoffs last season. Then there’s the Warriors, also in the play-in, that won the NBA championship just last year. The Pelicans are good, sure, but few would be shocked to see them fall to any of these teams.

Ceiling: Western Conference Semi-Finals

For the Pelicans to make the second round of the playoffs, they’ll need more than just a will to win. They’ll need masterful performances from forward Brandon Ingram, a healthy Williamson, and some big games from McCollum and center Jonas Valanciunas. 

But, if they were to escape the play-in tournament (or even move up and forego it entirely) and play a team like the Sacramento Kings or Los Angeles Clippers, the Pelicans have more than just a long shot to win a first-round series.