What Does Each Team Focus On As Their Series Drags?
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The 2022 NBA Playoffs have been incredible, quite frankly. Each series, whether it was close or not, was still very entertaining. I called some of my predictions wrong and some of mine right. However, I want to take a focus on what each team has to do, starting with the Western Conference.
Phoenix Suns:
Phoenix has had their way in this series so far against Dallas, and likely will close this series out in a maximum of 3 more games. Offensively, besides attacking a tired Luka in the 4th quarter, they are great when the ball is dumped to Ayton and teams are forced to surround him with multiple guys, creating extra opportunities for perimeter guys like Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Devin Booker. The CP3-Ayton pick and rolls have basically been un-guardable as well. Ayton is one of the best PnR finishers in the league, so combining that with a master PnR manipulator like Chris Paul makes Phoenix’s offense almost unstoppable against every team.
Defensively, they have to keep letting Luka be the scorer and shut down everyone else that is supposed to be his support. If Brunson and Dinwiddie are going to combine for 30% from the field for the remainder of this series then this series is over in 4.
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Memphis Grizzlies:
The Memphis Grizzlies need to be better defensively if they want to continue battling with Golden State. The actual 1-on-1 defense has not been bad, but the communication they’ve had has been atrocious. There have been multiple plays in this series where each player is pointing at someone on the Warriors telling a teammate to get after him, resulting in open looks for the Warriors because no one is closing out.
Offensively, continuing to get Ja Morant touches inside the paint is where he’s going to continue to be most effective. I have been saying all playoffs that if Bane, Brooks (when he returns), Melton, and Anderson can handle the ball more to get Ja catches on the run within 18 feet, Memphis is going to get a good shot every time down the floor.
Golden State Warriors:
Inversely, the Warriors need to cash in on the open looks they get from the Grizzlies defensive lapses. Also, the Grizzlies 1-on-1 defense has been solid, so when the Warriors are not playing ISO ball (Klay Thompson I’m talking to you), and actually make 3 or 4 passes before taking a shot, they get great looks. If the Warriors can get Steph better looks off the catch, his production will also increase, making it easier for others to score if more attention starts going to Steph Curry.
Defensively, they need to stop letting players on Memphis get into the paint with ease. If they would stop letting the paint get penetrated, it would make their closeouts way better as well. Simple stuff.
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Dallas Mavericks:
Look, this series is probably over. Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie have to convert the shots they were making against Utah. The looks have been similar, but the finishing has not been. Of course, it is better for the Mavs if Luka isn’t always involved in every play, but if they can’t get any real help from anyone else, he is going to stay involved in every play.
Defensively, they are also not likely to make any real improvement. Luka is going to keep being more tired as the game wears on, but the help from others can help that out. If they can fight better over screens, it’s less likely for the Suns to get better looks. If Luka hedges the screen instead of switching, the Suns ISO scoring seems less likely.
Miami Heat:
They play consistent team basketball, and that’s what they have to continue to do to win. Without Embiid, it’s way easier to attack the paint, and put any other big men in a pick and roll to attack. Attacking the slower, less skilled bigs on defense opens up the floor for the rest of Miami’s shooters like Herro, Strus, and Oladipo. If Embiid is back, they probably will have to rely more on jumpers, with Adebayo having to draw Embiid in. Or, if Bam can make those 15 footers, having Embiid playing out of the paint opens it up for cutters.
Defensively, this also depends on Embiid. With Embiid out, they can focus on letting Harden have to be the scorer on the perimeter without letting him get inside to create, which is when he is at his best as of recent. If Tobias Harris and Danny Green beat you, you live with it. Also, Tyrese Maxey is attacking Tyler Herro every chance he gets, so if you can get someone else in front of him, that’ll be better. With Embiid there, Harden needs to be worried about even more, as that screen option for him becomes quite useful. When Embiid gets his catches, Miami should double immediately, and since they are a very aggressive team, they’ll get away with hitting Embiid a little bit more, which is going to frustrate him as he is already injured.
Boston Celtics:
Defense, defense, defense.
That’s the name of the game for Boston. Every single player on their team can keep their matchup in front of them, and their size makes it so hard to score over. They sometimes use their hands a little too much, which can be costly against a team like Milwaukee. They have to keep building on what they did in game 2 which was making Giannis’ life very difficult by not letting him get inside but keeping out of the paint to the point where it’s easy to close out on their shooters. Without Middleton’s midrange shot creation, Boston has a great chance every night to slow Giannis and force difficult 3 point shots from the rest of the group.
Offensively, when Jaylen Brown is on, it’s like watching Kobe Bryant. The hands in his face do not matter, and he is locked in on defense. Jayson Tatum, as good as he has been in 2 games, can be even better. Multiple times in both games 1 and 2 he settled for isolation jumpers. While he is a great ISO scorer, he’s even better when he’s getting into the paint drawing fouls and kicking out to his teammates. He has made such a jump as a playmaker this year, that if he keeps taking strides like this there’s no reason he won’t be a top 3 player in a couple years. Grant Williams and Al Horford need to keep knocking down 3’s, and the rest will figure itself out.
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Milwaukee Bucks:
The shooters need to continue to be shooters. Jrue Holiday has been great at getting into the paint to create better offensive looks for the team as well. Giannis needs to stay in attack mode like he was in the second half of game 2. Simple stuff for them.
Defensively, they have to keep Tatum out of the paint and live with the contested jumpers that he makes. Also, continue to make Al Horford, Grant Williams, and co be the ones to have to beat you on the other end. If those guys are cold, Tatum and Brown will have to continue to take tough shots, and Milwaukee will have a great chance.
Philadelphia 76ers:
A lot of this analysis depends on Joel Embiid. Without him, offensively, Harden needs to get into the paint at will, Maxey needs to continue to be a shifty attacker, and Tobias Harris needs to knock down his open looks. With Embiid, they need to run pick and rolls every time down to get Harden and Embiid going. Conversions on that end will open up better looks for Maxey, Green, and Harris, making it hard for Miami to make defensive adjustments.
Defensively, it all depends on Embiid. It would be better if most shooters are forced into the paint to meet Embiid, but that plan does not work if he is not there. Without Embiid, the individual ability to keep a man in front of you needs be shown by the Sixers defense. Harden needs to get strips, Maxey needs to get strips, and forcing pressure on some of Miami’s weaker ball handlers, as well as trapping the mid-tier ball handlers, can get Philly possessions on the fastbreak.
We’ll see how the semis shake out.
