Deandre Ayton is Good, but Max Good?
The Phoenix Suns were the surprise team in the NBA last year. Many expected then to make the playoffs, but they bumped their success up a notch as they were two games away from winning the NBA finals… and Deandre Ayton was the rising star in their run. He shot a playoff best 65.8% from the floor, and his instincts as a roller and his versatility defensively made him a foundational piece in Phoenix’s playoff run. He also, arguably, had the play of the year when he caught a game-winning-lob in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals against the Clippers.
Deandre Ayton began to blossom at the right time, this was the first summer in which he was ellgible to get an extension. Notable players in his draft class, such as: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and Michael Porter Jr. all got max extensions. Because Ayton has gotten further in the postseason, he felt like he was worth the money those other young stars were getting, but the Suns disagreed, as they weren’t willing to pay him for the price he wanted, and that was a polarizing decision. As good of a player Ayton is, Suns’ Owner Robert Sarver and the organization, I believe, made the right decision to not give him a max right now. Here’s why:
Skillset:
There is a lot to like about Ayton’s game. Defensively, he has developed into one of the better defensive anchors in the game, taking advantage of his athleticism in the paint, and also being able to switch in the perimeter. He also has a very good feel for when to roll in the pick and roll, he can hit an open mid range jumper (shot 47.9% from 10-16 feet last season), and is a career 75.7% shooter from the free throw line, which separates him from other traditional offensive bigs.
There is zero denying, these strengths have value in the NBA, but they are also the most replaceable. JaVale McGee or Nerlins Noel can be signed to play a very similar role, to a lesser degree of course, but those players also aren’t going for a max.
When a player is paid a max, the expectation should be: When there is less financial flexibility for a team to sign difference-making players, can that player make up for that with his ability to produce as an offensive core piece? Will Ayton, be able to?
A major reason why Deandre Ayton was considered worthy of going with the first pick wasn’t only because of his physical tools, but the flashes he has shown in the post. In the NBA, he hasn’t been a bad scorer in the post, but he hasn’t been stellar either. He can take advantage of smaller matchups when he gets the ball in a good spot, near the basket in the post, but he doesn’t always get there. Often, if he is posting up a smaller defenders in the high-post, instead of banging his way inside, he will settle for a long-distance hook or midrange jumper, or he passes. Unlike some of the best offensive bigs in the league, ala Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Domantas Sabonis, he can’t consistently create effective shots out of the post.
He doesn’t make up for not being a great creator in the post either: He doesn’t create shots in the perimeter and has only hit eight threes in his career. He also isn’t like a Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, or Bam Adebayo, who is able to make players around him better with his vision. Ayton’s offensive game is heavily reliant on guard play; he is a very good roller to the rim and lob-threat, he can also hit an occasional mid range shot, but when it comes to being a foundational piece capable of being an offensive engine, which should typically be the expectation of a max-player, he isn’t there, yet.
Minimal Offensive Growth:
It is understandable, when a team is paying a 22-year-old going max money going into his fourth season, even if he isn’t a max-caliber player, yet. Projection is equally important because, theoretically, he is multiple years away from his prime years. In my opinion, when it comes to paying players due to projection, you also need to take into account the amount of growth that player has shown since arriving to the league.
Props to Ayton, there aren’t many players who have grown on the defensive end as much as he has the past few seasons, but on the offensive end, he hasn’t shown substantial progress.
In Ayton’s rookie season, he had a fantastic rookie season, averaging 16.3 PPG and 10.3 RPG. Last season, his third year, he averaged 14.4 PPG and 10.5 RPG. Not to say he didn’t improve at all, he has become more efficient from two and a part of the declined scoring production has to do with the fact he was on a contender, but still. This is not the offensive progress you should desire from a #1 pick. His skillset hasn’t evolved much either since his rookie season, as mentioned earlier, he hasn’t added a three point shot or the ability to create his own shot in ways other franchise centers in the league can. If a player hasn’t shown much growth offensively since coming to the league at 19-years-old, how reasonable is it to expect for that player to suddenly burst into the scene on that end?
The suns have the leverage:
Just because the Suns decided to not extend Deandre Ayton last summer doesn’t mean they won’t. They have restricted rights on him (meaning they have the ability to match any offer other teams throw at Ayton), and he isn’t even a restricted-free agent until this summer. The Suns have another full season of watching him play and will be able to further evaluate how much he is worth. If Ayton takes a leap this year and begins to look like the max-caliber talent the Suns envisioned when drafting him, the organization will lock him into that max-deal. If Ayton doesn’t show considerable growth, there is a possibility the Suns wouldn’t need to pay the steep price they would’ve had to if they chose to extend him last summer; Especially when considering the Suns will be a year removed from the finals run next offseason, so the raw emotions from the organization’s NBA Finals appearance will be weakened, and the league will have a more realistic evaluation of Ayton. There is definitely the risk of Ayton signing a shorter-term deal if he has a tremendous season, but that is a risk worth taking.
Conclusion:
The Phoenix Suns were in a tough position with Deandre Ayton’s contract situation, but they made the right decision to wait it out. Based on his production the past three years and overall skillset, he hasn’t proven to be max-worthy yet. Why should’ve the Suns payed him a max last offseason when he hasn’t proven to have such a trajectory yet, especially when Phoenix restricted-free agency rights on him? Ayton has the opportunity to prove his worth this year. If he does, surely he will get the max. If he doesn’t, a year removed from the raw emotions of making the finals, the Suns’ patience would likely be worth it as the organization wouldn’t have to pay what Ayton’s camp demanded.