The Case for a Jayson Tatum MVP
Photo by Michael Reaves
Duke basketball has yet to produce an NBA MVP. Nevertheless, the storied program, home of 17 Final Four appearances and five national championship banners, has one of the strongest claims to the top of the NCAA podium.
Coach Krzyzewski’s 42 years of dominance culminating with 13 of those Final Fours and all five rings, cements him and the Blue Devils firmly on the Mount Rushmore of college hoops. However, the fellow blue bloods in competition for the hardwood throne– Kansas, UCLA, UNC, Michigan State– all have one significant advantage, a plethora of NBA top dogs.
UCLA has six MVPs from Kareem, one from Bill Walton, and Westbrook. Wilt took home four for the Jayhawks, and Jordan pocketed five for the Tar Heels (and admittedly, deserved a few more). UNC also has one from Bob McAdoo). Michigan State has three, all from Magic. And at the bottom of the barrel, staring up at Indiana State (Bird), LSU (Pettit and Shaq), and many others, is Duke with zip, zero, zilch.
Duke’s failure to develop an MVP is startling, considering their recent draft success. In Coach K’s tenure, the Blue Devils saw 72 players drafted with 46 first-round picks. Yet, the closest Blue Devil to holding the trophy was 24-year-old Grant Hill in 1996-97, placing third in voting with a 21/9/7.5 stat line. Ahead of him was the GOAT himself (the rightful winner), who placed second to an aging Karl Malone. Unfortunately, injuries robbed Hill of his late prime, so a quarter century later, the Blue Devils slouch empty-handed. But, a new hope emerges: Jayson Tatum.
Given the betting odds, my favorite preseason pick for MVP is JT. Here is the case.
Current Odds
According to Vegas Insider, Tatum is sixth in preseason odds at 12:1, just behind the international wrecking crew, front-runner Doncic, then Embiid, Antetokounmpo, and Jokic tied with the timeless Durant.
Tatum is fresh off a breakthrough season that included the following: a 27/8/4.5 stat line, an All-NBA first-team selection, a 51-win Finals-bound Celtics, and an Eastern Conference MVP trophy.
Similar to Hill 25 years ago, Tatum enters his 24-year-old season on the final ascent to his prime. Beating Doncic, Embiid, Giannis, Durant, and Jokic for MVP is an extremely challenging feat considering the skill and workload of those players.
Doncic dropped an efficient 28/9/9 last year and should only score more with Jalen Brunson in New York. Embiid, Giannis, and Jokic sit firmly in their athletic primes, and each enters the season with an improved supporting cast. Durant is a dark horse in his own right if the Nets outperform their subdued expectations.
Despite the tall challenge, to envision a path to a Tatum MVP, look to the end of the 2021-22 regular season. Last year, in 20 post-All-Star break games, Tatum averaged 30.4 points on 50.6 percent shooting, including 41.5 percent from three on 9.2 attempts per game (adjacent to prime Klay numbers), along with seven boards and five assists. The Celtics won 17 of 20 games.
Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant
The Path
The smoothest path to MVP hinges on three tenets– narrative, team success, and numbers.
The foundation for a Tatum narrative is strong. Unforeseen challenges have bombarded the Celtics preseason–the Ime Udoka suspension, the Gallinari ACL tear, and the two or three months without Rob Williams. Fans, media, and coaches alike will look favorably on the Celtics if they push through to a successful season.
Plus, the Celtics got better. Malcolm Brogdon is an improvement over Derrick White on both sides of the ball, and White gets a whole season to jive with the roster. Grant Williams gets better. Sam Hauser carries crazy hype for his somewhat uninteresting college career. Maybe Blake Griffin can be a stop-gap until Time Lord returns. Noah Vonleh and Justin Jackson are NBA players.
Despite starting the season with no reliable big men beyond old man Al Horford, this team is too skilled to fall short of 50-plus wins. If the Celtics garner another top-two seed in the East, narrative and team success receive big green checks.
The final step is maximizing Tatum’s raw numbers. First, it is important to grow the All-Defense buzz and maintain the two-way star narrative. Hold the eight rebounds per game. Second, Tatum needs to shoot even more 3s. Last year, 35 percent from beyond the arc was the lowest mark of his career. Although holding the torch of the number one option involves tougher shots, a shooting slump at the beginning of the year dampened Tatum’s numbers considerably.
10 three-pointers per game is optimal. That number may seem weighty, but with the Brogdon addition and a full year of White, the guards will generate more catch-and-fire looks for Tatum. Hitting, say, 38 percent on those (far more in line with his career numbers) ups Tatum’s points per game to 28 with just the same number of shots. The new guards will nab some assists, but Tatum’s most significant growth last year came as a ball-handler and pick-and-roll passer. Expect five-plus assists–he averaged nearly seven in the playoffs.
The Argument Against
Tatum played a ton of minutes last year. Just under 36 per game in 76 regular season games, all before 41 per game in 24 playoff games. That’s a lot of wear and tear. Tatum has never had a significant injury, but with the Celtics’ significant guard and wing depth, the team will likely pull back his minutes to the 33-34 range. A reduction in minutes may reel in Tatum’s utmost statistical potential until the playoffs.
The Case
So, a 53-29 Celtics team that is first in the East, and a 28/8-5 stat line on 45/38/86 shooting splits with great wing defense. An unbelievable season that would end the Duke drought and edge the Blue Devils ever so closer to the little turds, excuse me, Tar Heels, from across the tracks.
