Ranking The Western Conference By Tiers
As we get into the slowest part of the NBA season, tier lists and ranking articles are always something to help stimulate the brain. Today, let’s arrange the Western conference into five different tiers.
Tier one is championship favorites. The NBA world will declare it a failure if these teams achieve anything short of a title. Tier two is dark-horse championship contenders. If one of these teams doesn't make it to the championship, it was probably expected. However, if one of these teams made it, they overachieved. Tier three is simply playoff teams. Anything more is shocking and anything less is disappointment. Tier four is play-in hopefuls. These can be for the good or bad depending on what team it is. Finally, tier five is rebuilding teams. I expect nothing from them except to have fun and improve daily.
Unlike the eastern conference standings, the western conference has more teams than there should be in certain tiers. By that logic, some teams will fail according to these standards when the playoffs roll around.
Tier One: Nuggets, Lakers, and Suns
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets swept the los Angelos Lakers in the 2023 Western conference finals. Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez/ USA TODAY Sports
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a dominant playoff run capped off with the Larry O’Brien trophy. Nikola Jokic is arguably the best player in the league today, and their only substantial loss was Bruce Brown. With the expected leap of Christain Braun into that prominent bench role, the Nuggets have not lost a step. Jamal Murray is healthy and one of the top point guards in basketball. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter are the perfect pieces for the top two players and can be all-star-level when asked to be. The fellas in Denver are the favorites.
The Los Angelos Lakers did not finish their historic turnaround season how they wanted to. However, the ability to retain the young pieces while adding more bench players makes them even stronger than before. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura were the top priorities this offseason for Rob Pelinka, and he got both deals done almost immediately. The additions of Gabe Vincent and Jaxon Hayes provide much-needed depth at the guard and center positions. Of course, they still have arguably the best duo in the association in Anthony Davis and LeBron James. The curse of James-led teams is the expectation is championships.
The Phoenix Suns can win a championship if they can stay healthy. Three all-NBA caliber guys in Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker are more than enough to win a title, but one injury can send things spiraling. The Suns did a good job of filling out their bench with playable guys, but this is not a bench unit that can make up for the loss of a guy like Durant, who has dealt with a sprained MCL in each of the last two seasons. Booker dealt with an injury this season that had people questioning their championship window. Beal has played 90 games in the last two years. Hopefully, the Suns can load manage these guys to have them ready for playoff time, but time will tell.
tier two- Timberwolves, warriors, clippers, and Mavericks
Steph Curry and Luka Doncic both made all-NBA first team four times in their careers. Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj/ USA TODAY Sports
The Timberwolves were a disappointing team last season. However, they did not see a lot of games with all three of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards. I think a full offseason and regular season of Towns getting real-time at the power forward spot and Edwards running the offense can make the Wolves a real dark-horse title contender. Bruce Brown recently said the Wolves felt like their toughest opponent in their seemingly effortless playoff run. Big things are coming for the boys in Minnesota.
The Warriors have no business competing for a title. However, Steph Curry may be at his absolute peak and has a very faint argument for the best player in the world. He can carry this team on offense and is no longer a pushover on the defensive end. By bringing back Draymond Green, that defense can still stay above float as long as having him facilitate. Speaking of running offenses, they have one of the best, Chris Paul. Ignoring fit, Klay Thompson, Curry, and Paul is arguably the best guard rotation of all time. This team can win a title, but not the betting favorite.
The Clippers would be tier one if a time traveler from next June came back and assured that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard would be healthy. Unfortunately, it is almost clockwork that these two suffer some sort of lower-body injury the moment they find the spark of a championship squad. However, that is the only reason they are a dark-horse contender. The only thing stopping them is health. They have the stars, depth, and defensive mentality to win a title. Let’s see if Leonard and George can muster up a healthy run together.
The Mavericks took a fall after the trade for Kyrie Irving, but Irving is not the direct correlation of their fall. Without legit wing defenders, the Mavericks were destined to fall off. With the signing of Grant Williams, the perimeter defense has a real impact player to go with his shooting prowess. The Mavericks are in this tier with expected leaps from Josh Green and Jaden Hardy. These two being able to run an offense without Luka Doncic or Irving on the court will be crucial in the Mavericks’ success. Along with this, they need to be able to support either of the star guards when it isn’t time to run the offense. Irving and Doncic will be able to outscore anyone in the association, but it is up to Head Coach Jason Kidd to light a fire under his team to be all in on the defensive end.
Tier Three- Thunder, grizzlies, pelicans, and kings
Ja Morant and Zion Williamson were the number one and two picks in the 2019 NBA Draft and were AAU teammates in high school. Photo Credit: Justin Ford/Getty Images
This is the year the Thunder make the official leap into some sort of contention. The playoffs are the standard for this squad. They are very young, but that is no reason not to have expectations. Leading the charge, all-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he had them on the doorstep of the postseason without rookie Chet Holgrem. This may be the one team in this tier where if they do miss the playoffs, it isn't cause for panic. That said, they aren’t exempt from disappointment if they don’t do so.
The Grizzlies are already handicapped for the first 25 games due to the suspension of star guard Ja Morant. This team should still be more than capable of getting into the postseason. Marcus Smart will add to the identity of grit n’ grind while this team will look to add to their impressive resume without Morant until he returns. As for them being tier three and not tier two, they cannot win a championship where their best player cannot shoot or defend. Every year, the best player in a championship can either be an elite playmaker, defender, and/or shooter. Ja Morant is an exceptional playmaker and willing defender, but his inability to stretch the floor consistently may be their downfall.
The Pelicans could be a tier-one team. They were a top-two seed in the western conference with Zion Williamson healthy. However, he suffers from an injury luck much stronger than even that of the Clippers. He has yet to play even 65 games. He played 62 of 72 games in the 2020-2021 season, but that has been the anomaly in his very young career. This team should be able to make the postseason despite this. Even if Williamson were to play under 20 games, Brandon Ingram needs to showcase the ability to take a team to the playoffs. He has some of the lowest expectations of any all-star in this league. It is time he leads the charge whether he has Zion with him or not.
The Kings took a tier two team to game seven, how are they not also tier two? Domantas Sabonis is a huge reason. In the regular season, he is great. Sabonis was top five in MVP voting and earned third-team all-NBA. However, remember that thing earlier about the best player needing to be able to play make, shoot, or defend at an elite level? Sabonis is incapable of two of them off the bat. You could argue that De’Aaron Fox is the best player and he can play make and defend at a good enough level, but the second-best player being ineffective on two of the biggest aspects of basketball will not suffice for long playoff runs. However, there is a pathway to them taking a leap into tier two, the arrival of Keegan Murray as a true second-scoring option to Fox.
Tier four- Jazz and Rockets
The Rockets and Jazz missed the play-in last season. Photo Credit: Rob Gray/ USA TODAY Sports
The Jazz would have made the play-in had they not blown up at the deadline. Even now, a team featuring one of the best frontcourt rotations in the league led by Lauri Markkanen can certainly muster up a tenth seed if they are committed to winning all season. The decision is honestly up to General Manager Danny Ainge. Ainge is the mastermind of rebuilding and getting what he wants in the trade market. If he wants his team to contend seriously, he will do it. If Ainge thinks his team will be painfully mediocre, he will clean house. Despite this, the play-in would be a nice sign of growth for the Jazz.
The Rockets should be looking to take the Thunder-like jump this season. Jalen Green going into his third year should start to pull the efficiency part of his game together. New Coach Ime Udoka will install defensive life into this squad. Along with a new mindset on defense, look for Udoka to trust Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson to run his offense while using Jabari Smith more as a serious one or two option on every play. This team is loaded with young talent and there is a path of them all improving to make a push to the play-in.
Tier five- Blazers and Spurs
Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson played each other in an exhibition matchup during the fall. Photo Credit: Hibbett.com
The Trail Blazers will have nothing to look forward to except improving every day, and that is honestly better than the last decade. In the NBA, it is better to be serious about something. Whether it is tanking or competing, just be serious about the goal. The Blazers are finally done with being mediocre and are looking to start from scratch. If and when they trade Lillard, they should get a package that will put them in a position for good times. Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe will be one of the best young duos in the NBA. Blazers fans should be all smiles this year, no matter what the win-loss columns say.
The Spurs can flirt with tier four. If Victor Wembanyama can have the impact of a rookie LeBron James, then it is possible. While that is a high bar, he is capable of doing it. Out of the gate, their defensive core is better than most, with Wembanyama protecting the rim and Tre Jones and Jeremy Sochan out on the perimeter. Add this with the offensive talent of Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell, and this team can rumble the depths of the western conference. This team is tier five for their approach this season. There are reports of already load managing Wembanyama, and that is not the most inspiring message to someone looking to see major success for them this year. They and the Blazers will start every game by saying, “OK fellas, let’s go out there and have fun.”
Final Thoughts
Again, plenty of teams are expected to make the postseason, but there are not enough spots. Three teams are expected to win the title with one trophy. Some of these teams will end their season in major disappointment. Teams that could move around are the Spurs, Kings, and Warriors.
