NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions

With the first game of this year’s NBA Playoffs just a few hours away from tipoff, here are some predictions and what to look out for during the first round.

The East

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

This is an interesting matchup because the Miami Heat are a better team than their record and what their performance has shown throughout the season. This is essentially the same squad that lost in six games in the NBA Finals in 2020 while also beating basically the current Boston Celtics team and the Giannis-Kris Middleton Milwaukee Bucks. So the ceiling of this team is capable of beating the Bucks, and their track record is good against them as well. Jimmy Butler is not a superstar; he is very shaky, is a foul merchant, is a limited shooter, is occasionally super-passive in games, and is a questionable leader. However, he is also capable of going on these extreme red-hot scoring nights, such as the one he had yesterday against Chicago in the final play-in game. So the fate and the length of this series depend on if Jimmy plays like a superstar or remains like what he has mostly been throughout the season.

Key Player: Jimmy Butler

X-Factor: Miami’s bench

Winner: Bucks, 4-1

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

While I never really agreed with the Dejounte Murray trade (I find him very overrated, personally), the Atlanta Hawks are a better team than their record suggests. The decision to fire coach Nate McMillan to bring in Quin Snyder after the All-Star break led to a similar late-season push the Hawks had when they had done the same to bring in McMillan back in 2021. They are in form at the right moment and time. The Celtics, in my opinion, are one of the more overrated teams in the league because of their forced dependency on Jayson Tatum, which makes this series open to an upset. If the Hawks can maintain their momentum, they can easily match up with Boston and take this series six or seven games. Although my prediction is that Boston will prevail, look out for a potential upset in this series.

Key Player: Trae Young

X-Factor: Quin Snyder

Winner: Celtics, 4-2

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Arguably the biggest mismatch of the first-round matchups, I expect the series to be a relatively short dismissal of the starless Brooklyn Nets. The only reason the Nets are even in the playoffs is because of the remnants of wins from the Kevin Durant era in Brooklyn. Although I find it unlikely to happen, the only way this series becomes intriguing, barring injury, is if the ex-role players that shape up Brooklyn’s starting lineup have breakout series as legit star players. Otherwise, unless the referees suddenly decide to swallow their whistles, I don’t see them being able to contain Joel Embiid and his 15 free throws per game.

Key Player: Joel Embiid

X-Factor: Brooklyn’s role player-turned-stars’ performance

Winner: Sixers, 4-0

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

This is one of the more even postseason matchups, with neither team being a realistic championship contender. Despite the inconsistent seeding of this year’s playoffs, the Cavs and the Knicks are your everyday typical fourth-seed/fifth-seed teams; they will put up a fight, but they either lack the superstar power or the bench depth. Despite that reality, this matchup will be one of the most fun-to-watch series of the first round. The Cavs play entertaining basketball. Meanwhile, the Knicks bring the crowd atmosphere, and the combination of the two should lead to a long back-and-forth series. Expect tense, grinding matches.

Key Player: Donovan Mitchell

X-Factor: Tom Thibodeau

Winner: Cavaliers, 4-3

The West

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

This was honestly the hardest matchup for me to predict on. Ever since Kendrick Perkins made waves across news and social media over claims that “race” was playing a role in Nikola Jokic’s MVP push, Jokic hasn’t had the same form he had for over 80 percent of the year. It’s almost as if he has been running in a lower gear ever since. Whether that is because he wanted to distance himself from the racial controversy caused by Perkins or not, there has been an evident change in his level since that point, which in turn has led Joel Embiid (and even perhaps Giannis Antetokounmpo) to surpass him in the MVP race. As a result of this drop, I am no longer confident in the Nuggets’ potential, which makes the Timberwolves a very dangerous matchup. I’ll still give the edge to Nuggets based on first-seed credentials, but this will not be your average first-seed vs. eight-seed matchup.

Key Player: Anthony Edwards

X-Factor: Rudy Gobert

Winner: Nuggets, 4-2

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. LA Lakers (7)

What started off as another easy-going successful season for the Memphis Grizzlies turned into a bit of turmoil once the Ja Morant “gun” news broke out. Although they haven’t necessarily struggled since then, they haven’t been as sharp as before, either. Whether this is a permanent loss of form due to that distraction remains to be seen, but the Lakers themselves have peaked at the right time as well, making this a dangerous matchup. Ever since the Russell Westbrook trade, the Los Angeles Lakers have had one of the best records in the NBA, which has led them to postseason action after, for the most part, it had seemed like another lost season for them when they had started off the year 2-10. With LeBron and AD being mostly healthy and in shape, the Lakers are the most likely candidate in the first round to pull off an upset. While this series still might end up being an embarrassing loss for LA, this is the first year since their championship-winning 2020 season that both LeBron and Anthony Davis are healthy to start the playoffs. The Lakers also have one of the more lengthy squads in the league, and if they eliminate the Grizzlies and open up the bracket, it could lead to some very intriguing possibilities for the rest of the playoffs.

Key Player: LeBron James

X-Factor: Anthony Davis

Winner: Lakers, 4-3

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. GS Warriors (6)

In a season where so many teams struggled with injuries, there are several lower-seeded teams with championship potential in this year’s playoffs. The Warriors are one of them. Although the Sacramento Kings are legit, and I like them and their coach a lot, it is their first playoff appearance in 16 years, and they are open to showing rust and inexperience as a franchise in their long-awaited return to the playoffs. As such, they are the ideal opponents for the defending champs to pull an “upset” in the playoffs. The Warriors almost had the fifth seed, which they surprisingly went for it, considering they would have matched up with the much tougher Phoenix Suns. Instead, they will look to take advantage of the youthful Sacremento’s inexperience. Given the return of Andrew Wiggins (arguably Golden State’s most important player in last year’s finals), their chances of progressing look very promising.

Key Player: Domantas Sabonis

X-Factor: Return of Andrew Wiggins

Winner: Warriors, 4-2

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. LA Clippers (5)

The Phoenix Suns have the best starting five in the league right now. Their four-seed ranking doesn’t represent the actual strength of this team, as their season can be separated as before and after Kevin Durant. With Durant being back healthy and up and running the last week of the regular season, the Suns are coming into this series in full strength and form. Meanwhile, the Clippers are undermanned because of the absence of Paul George. Although George is expected to return at some point during the series, it is ironic and somewhat funny that despite all this “load management” in the Kawhi Leonard-Paul George era, the Clippers have only been fully healthy once in the past four years. While “load management” advocates have always stated that the strategy is essential to preserve the condition of a team over an 82-game season, the Clippers’ fortunes may be a consequence of the “Sports Gods” punishing them. Kidding aside, if Paul George returns, this deep Clippers squad can easily beat the Suns. But I’ll bet my money every time on another Paul George playoff disappointment.

Key Player: Kawhi Leonard

X-Factor: Paul George’s return(?)

Winner: Suns, 4-1