NBA Playoffs: Finals Preview
The first game of the NBA Finals tips off on Thursday night at Denver.
The NBA Finals is upon us. After it initially seemed like two teams would advance with straightforward sweeps of their Conference Finals opponents, the Miami Heat finally joined the Denver Nuggets for a shot at destiny to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Finals coverage starts June 1st on ABC/ESPN. Here are the key storylines and what to look out for during the series.
Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)
The matchup features an intriguing clash between a top seed and a Play-In Tournament winner. However, despite what the seedings might suggest, at this stage of the postseason, standings become irrelevant. Both teams have rightfully earned their place on the grand stage.
Denver eliminated dark horse favorites Phoenix Suns with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the second round, followed by beating LeBron James and Anthony Davis of the resurgent Los Angeles Lakers in the Conference Finals. Meanwhile, Miami overcame the Play-In Tournament, even trailing the Bulls late in the fourth quarter, before pulling off upsets with victories against the one-seed Milwaukee Bucks and two-seed Boston Celtics.
Although this Finals matchup may not be the most popular, it is definitely a deserving one. What makes the Nuggets-Heat series captivating is the underdog mentality instilled in both teams. While the term underdog has become an overused cliché over the years, for the first time in recent memory, both teams actually have legitimate reasons to view themselves as such.
Miami’s record and ascent in the playoffs speaks for itself when it comes to justifying this narrative. However, it is the rise of the Nuggets that is more unique when it comes to the underdog storyline. Despite having the best record in the NBA while also having the reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets were never properly given “their flowers” by the traditional media or the Twittersphere fanbases.
In fact, the dismissal of the Nuggets has been to such a great extent that legitimate NBA analysts, whether it be ex-players or news personalities, have blurted ignorance when it came to how good the Nuggets were. From Mark Jackson to Stephen A. Smith, several of these prominent faces of the NBA media uttered words that basically said they “knew the Nuggets were good, but didn’t know they were this good”.
This speaks to the toxic and narrow-minded state of the NBA culture nowadays, with fans and the media only paying attention to big-market teams or players with ridiculous athletic talent. As such, the Nuggets, despite their talent, have gone overlooked for many years during the Jokic Era in the Mile High City.
(Photo by Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Aside from the underdog storyline, several other crucial questions will arise and be answered throughout this series. Will Miami be able to slow Jokic down? Can Bam Adebayo match up with him over seven games? Will Tyler Herro’s expected return prove to be too little too late for the Heat? Will the Heat’s role players continue to outperform expectations? These are all part of what we should look out for over the next couple of weeks in what should prove to be a tough physical series.
Ones to Watch
Bam Adebayo: Bam is one of the most crucial players on the Miami roster. You could argue that his presence is more vital than Jimmy Butler, since there is no one else on the Miami team that can necessarily replicate what Bam does. Nobody resembles him in the team, which makes it hard for Miami to play their regular game plan when he is getting his precious few minutes of rest.
That reality is the burden on Bam’s shoulders. And while he has played consistently over the past four years, Bam struggled towards the latter end of the seven-game series they had against Boston. He was basically an offensive liability that was scared to shoot and attack the basket, and somebody that seemed to be uncomfortable to even take the most simplest of shots.
Although he has never been regarded as an offensive player with a varied arsenal of moves, the end of the Celtics series was a low point for Bam, and had they lost the series, he would have been the primary target for why Miami lost. In a series where the opposing team’s best player will be your own matchup, Bam Adebayo needs to bring more to the table than just his defensive effort.
Jamal Murray: Jamal is a very weird player, which is why he may be struggling to get the recognition he expects. Although I myself am one of his skeptics (I personally don’t like his decision-making), he does have a sparkplug trait in him. Some people like to refer to these types of players as “gamers”, and although there is another side to the coin, it is very true that Jamal can suddenly be the reason you win games you otherwise shouldn’t.
In the NBA, even when you have a 30-point triple-double, 90 percent of the time you don’t win games because of one player, regardless of how good that player was that day. But players like Jamal usually cause that 10 percent exception because of their unpredictable play and questionable decision-making that flusters the opposing team. They are in some ways like a shooting star; it is rare to see one and it is not wise to expect you’re going to come across one very often. So you need to plan according to that.
Jamal should have one game like that in this series, but he will easily have one or two games where the Nuggets will win in spite of him as well. It comes down to Jokic to offset the negative impacts of Jamal, and if he can do that to a reasonable level, the Nuggets will triumph over the Miami Heat.
Jimmy Butler: While Bam Adebayo was the player that struggled the most for Miami throughout the Boston series, it was the dip in Jimmy Butler’s play between games four and six that led Boston to crawl back into the series. Although this isn’t widely known among Twitter’s casual NBA fanbase, Jimmy is prone to disengaging and losing focus in basketball games. It happened when he was with the Bulls facing the LeBron James-led Cavaliers in 2015 when the series was tied 2-2. It happened in 2021 with Miami the year after they were in the finals when they lost in dominant fashion in round one. And it almost happened against the Celtics this year after they were up 3-0.
Although the aforementioned NBA community on Twitter has already given him the “Playoff Jimmy” moniker as an all-time clutch playoff performer, Butler has these weird periods where he totally goes against this reputation by suddenly going from a +20 shot player with over 10 free-throws to a 10-15 shot player who is not attacking the basket and hiding around the corner playing hot potato whenever the ball comes to him. In these periods, he is a shell of the player with that kind of playoff reputation, and in a team like Miami that doesn’t have the offensive firepower as some of these other teams in the playoff, they need Jimmy to be attacking the paint all game long.
This nearly cost them the previous series (which would have made them the only team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 lead), but they luckily lived to die another day. Miami can’t afford another lapse like this, and Jimmy’s playstyle (not the quality of it) will be the main determinant of how far they can push the Denver Nuggets.
X-Factor
(Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
News came out from TNT’s Chris Haynes that Miami’s Tyler Herro was expected to return for the NBA Finals from the hand fracture he sustained in the opening round against Milwaukee, with the most likely game for his return being Game 3.
Herro is a 20-points-per-game scorer, a former sixth man of the year, and a sharpshooter, which has made him a very valuable asset for Miami over the last four years. However, his return isn’t as straightforward as some might expect.
Herro’s injury coincided with Miami’s unexpected playoff push. During the process Miami had to find a totally different rotation and identity, especially after they also lost Victor Oladipo to injury as well.
Although the last four games have been tough, for the most part they have become a well-oiled machine during the last couple of weeks. Herro’s return, for good or worse, is naturally going to disrupt that. Now saying that might make it seem as though Miami would then prefer to stick with the current lineup in order to not disrupt any rhythm. However, the fact that the expected return date for Herro is Game 3 opens the door to different possibilities.
Since Denver is the higher seed, they will host the first two games of the series. Assuming that the higher-seeded team will win its home games against its lower-seeded opponent, in all likelihood Herro comes back with the Heat down 2-0 as the series goes to Miami. In that scenario, Miami will be in a must-win situation, and more importantly, they’ll have already seen how their team holds up against the healthy Nuggets without the services of Herro.
My assumption is that if Miami loses the first two games badly, then Herro will come back to reclaim his starting spot from Max Strus. If Miami split the two games or barely loses them, I expect Herro to either have a minimal role in game three or possibly not play at all.
Miami’s performance in the way they win or lose the first two games will decide the role that will be given to Tyler Herro the rest of the way of the NBA Finals, and as an unquestioned starter in this Heat team under normal circumstances, his expected return under any role will be a momentum switch in this series, regardless of which way it goes.
Winner
Despite the unconventionality of this Miami team, they are still an eight-seed going up against the top team in the league. When you add the fact that arguably the best player of the past three years is on the opposing team, there is a reason why Vegas has the Denver Nuggets as the heavy favorites in this matchup.
As someone that believes Kendrick Perkins screwed him over of his third MVP in a row by bringing race into the voting in today’s delicate political climate, I won’t lie, I do root for Jokic to shush his haters by crowning himself as one of the greatest players of all time by winning the title. Denver is the better team with the better star, better role players, better athletes, better shooters, and the bigger bodies. Unless something out of the normal happens, they should win. My pick is 4-2 Denver (Finals MVP: Nikola Jokic).
