BEARD OR NOTHING!
With Sixers in salary cap hell, retaining the Beard is crucial to Embiid’s championship hopes.
After yet another devastating playoff collapse, with Harden and Embiid choke jobs costing the franchise a 3-2 lead, it's more frustrating than ever for Sixers fans. It just seems like year after year, the team loses in some spectacularly disappointing fashion and still hasn’t made it past the second round in the Embiid era.
Proposed solutions to this dilemma vary wildly: some suggesting to completely flip the roster, let Harden walk in free agency, trade Embiid, and rebuild around young star Tyrese Maxey. Others take a more moderate approach and suggest either to let Harden walk or try to get something for him in a sign-and-trade, while trading Tobias Harris to build a contender around Embiid and Maxey.
And it makes sense considering just how badly Harden played in the Sixers losses. Despite averaging 34.7 points on 60.7% shooting in the Sixers three wins, Harden put up just 12.5 points on 21.8% shooting in the losses against the Celtics.
So why should the Sixers retain a player who couldn’t get it done when it mattered most? Because the unfortunate reality is that the Sixers will only have about $8 million in cap space even if Harden leaves. So if anyone can find a player who can put up playoff stats in the realm of Harden’s 20.3 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 6.2 rpg available for an $8 million salary in the NBA then sure, the Sixers should let Harden walk to sign that player. But considering PJ Tucker cost the team $11 million to put up averages of 3.5 ppg, 0.8 apg, and 3.9 rpg this season, I wouldn’t expect them to find someone capable of doing so.
This means the Sixers are stuck locking in their core of Embiid and Harden long term and accepting the results, or letting Harden walk and then expecting the team that just lost with him to somehow do better next year with a cheap role player or two replacing him.
And despite all of Embiid and Harden’s struggles, the crazy thing is that the Sixers had the Celtics on the ropes repeatedly in this series. The team held both a 1-0 and 3-2 lead and led the Celtics at home down the stretch of Game 6 before willowing late. Even in Game 7 the team held an almost 10 point lead with Embiid on the bench during the second quarter. Things went the way they did, but it took an epic collapse that included a 70-36 Celtics run during the second and third quarters for them to blow it.
The point of it all being that this team was not far off at all this year. It remains to be seen who wins the Finals this year, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Celtics pull it off. Not only were they the runner up last season, but the team managed to improve by adding Malcolm Brogdon without losing anyone of note.
It’s important that the Sixers understand just how close they came, because when the team lost to the team that went on to win the finals a few years ago, management overreacted and made some of the worst moves in the history of the franchise that summer. After losing in 7 to the “Kawhi Raptors”, the team signed and traded superstar Jimmy Butler to the Miami Heat for Josh Richardson, who they flipped for Seth Curry a year later. They also signed Tobias Harris to one of the worst contracts in recent NBA history, which is still hurting this team, and Al Horford, despite already having Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons, who all played significant time at the same positions. Obviously the Sixers don’t want a repeat of that offseason.
This time, the Sixers should focus more on getting the right role players around Embiid, Harden, and Maxey. De’Anthony Melton is clearly one of those players. PJ Tucker helped them significantly at times this year, but Boston Coach Joe Mazzula changed the series by placing Robert Williams on him and instructing him to let Tucker shoot so he could protect the paint against Sixers drives to the basket.
Trading Tucker for a different role player wouldn’t be the worst idea, but I still think the Sixers can get away with his lack of offense. Although to do so would mean the team would have to replace Tobias with a high level three point shooter that won’t get played off the court due to bad defense. The Sixers only have one first round pick available to trade, so they’ll have to get creative with their 5 tradeable second rounders to find a way to do so.
The team's free agents are George Niang, Shake Milton, Jalen McDaniels, and Paul Reed. It seems safe to say Milton is a goner. Still only 26 years old, Milton lost his role this year and has never fit with other ball handlers like Harden or Maxey anyway. The team should bring back the rest however, assuming they don’t ask for significant raises.
Reed was very useful on defense at times and improved significantly on offense throughout the year. Reed is only 23 years old, so the team should try and get him on a multi year contract for when his inevitable breakout raises his value.
Niang was someone I hated watching teams play off the court when he struggled defensively. But he was also a player who I really wished Doc would have played more against Boston when they packed the paint with Robert Williams. Replacing Tucker with Niang could have totally swung the series if the Celtics tried the same strategy on him as they did with Tucker. Boston would have very quickly figured out that they can’t help off Niang, allowing Harden and Embiid the same freedom to play one on one that they had throughout the rest of the series. I would try and bring him back, but with his defensive limitations I wouldn’t be willing to give him much more than his expiring deal which was 2 years for a total of just under $7 million.
McDaniels is interesting because he didn’t help the team whatsoever this season but his skill set theoretically is the perfect fit for this team as a spot up shooter and cutter on offense, while adding size and length around a backcourt that's not the best defensively. Since he’s just 25, I would treat this basically the same as the Niang situation and offer him a similar deal.
General manager Daryl Morey will scour free agency for bargain bin veterans after that, since the team won’t have the cap space to sign anyone to anything expensive. So to all the Sixers fans out there that watched that series and were expecting a subsequent James Harden sign and trade, well good luck because that route is pretty likely to get you Josh Richardson and a first round exit.
