The Cleveland Cavaliers: the surprise is no fluke
David Zalubowski/AP
Every season or two, there seems to be at least one team that nobody has any expectations for, yet that squad comes in and establishes itself as a legitimate playoff threat. Last year, it was the Julius Randle-led Knicks, in 2018-19, was the D’Angelo Russell-led Brooklyn Nets, and in 2017-18, it was the Victor Oladipo-led Indiana Pacers. This season, it feels like that team is the Cleveland Cavaliers. From the moment I am writing this, they are chilling at the fourth seed in the East, and what makes this team really separate itself from the other teams that have surprised: they have the potential to really grow from this success. Here is why this success they are experiencing it legitimate and can be grown upon:
A Special defense:
Similar to the New York Knicks last season, the offense isn’t the foundation of the team’s success. The Cavaliers are only 20th in offensive rating and don’t have one 20 PPG scorer. This team is special because they pride themselves on the other end of the floor. No, they don’t have any fantastic point-of-attack defenders outside of Isaac Okoro, but their defensive success is based on the most important aspect of defense: great rim protection. With their star two bigs in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, they possess two elite rim protectors who make it nearly impossible to score in the paint. The raw blocks may not reflect the irritation Cleveland causes inside, they are only 14th in the league in blocks. But they lead the league in contested two point shots. Whenever you watch them play, it becomes apparent teams can second guess their decisions to drive because of the fear of an Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen contested or blocking someone’s shot. Basketball is a mental sport, when you have offenses second guess, that only makes life easier for a defense. Because of the effect Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have in the paint, Cleveland has the second best defensive rating in the league.
the Rise of a Fantastic Young Core:
Ever since the drafting of Lebron James, the Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t done great in terms of drafting or acquiring high-end talent in a savvy fashion; But since 2018, the Cavaliers have done a great job drafting. They drafted Colin Sexton, who was averaging 25 PPG last season. The year after, they drafted Darius Garland. In 2020, they draft Isaac Okoro, who I wouldn’t have taken fifth, even at the time, but as a slasher and athletic defender, will find his way in any rotation. In the James Harden trade, they received Jarrett Allen for essentially nothing. And in 2021, they drafted Evan Mobley with the third pick.
The Cavaliers haven’t seen much of Colin sexton this year due to a season-ending meniscus surgery, but we have seen this quickly revamped core really shine. Darius Garland has dramatically improved every season, his efficiency as a scorer and facilitating has reached another peak, to the point where he has been a star-level guard. Jarrett Allen could be a sleeper MIP pick, he is on track to be the first player in NBA history to average a 15+ PPG double double on 70%+, and he is averaging north of 17 PPG. His polish in the post has really popped as a reason for this production. Ricky Rubio and Darius Garland have also deserved credit for consistently getting him to his spots. Those players have been great, but the player who has emerged as the center-piece, the most important foundation on this team has been Evan Mobley. Similar to what I alluded to earlier, Evan Mobley has been ridiculous defensively, perhaps the best defensive rookie we have seen in over a decade. Offensively, he still may have ways to go before he becomes a high-usage star, but because of his versatility, feel, and touch around the rim he, he has a chance to be an elite offensive player as well.
Cleveland will need to figure out what they will do with Colin Sexton going forward, but assuming he stays, the Cavaliers have a unique chance to build around four potential future All-Stars in Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Colin Sexton. If these four maximize their potential together, Cleveland will be contenders down the road.
Veteran leadership:
The Cavaliers have one of the youngest cores in the league. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro, are all 23 and younger. In a grown man’s league, it’s exceptionally difficult for young players to win by themselves. Teams need veterans with experience who can lead and elevate players around them. By landing Ricky Rubio this past offseason, they landed a veteran addition who has be key to helping the development of young players. In the past, Ricky was also crucial in the development of Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Ricky may be what he is at this point as one of the worst shooting guards in basketball, but he is such a fantastic playmaker and organizer of an offense, Cleveland has seemed to have more maturity and organization when he has been on the court. He also deserves credit for the way he has set up the Evan Mobley’s and Jarrett Allen’s of the world, Ricky has prided himself in elevating star young bigs, and he has continued to do so in Cleveland.
For years, Kevin Love was in trade talks and it felt like his championship-tenure in Cleveland was coming to an end. But credit to Kevin, with the Cavaliers winning basketball games again, he has accepted a bench role and has been one of the better scoring/shooting bench bigs in the league. The fact that has has been healthy as well as also been incredibly critical for Cleveland. With his clear frustrations with this young core, notably Colin Sexton in the past because Kevin didn’t like his ball-dominant style, it’s hard to tell if he has been quite as major of a positive to this locker room as a Ricky Rubio. But with his championship-level experience and the way he has played off the bench this season, he has appeared to be a positive this well. It’s funny and sad (I’m a Timberwolves fan) that Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio couldn’t figure out how to win in Minnesota. But they have an opportunity to do so in Cleveland with their play and contribution as veterans for such a young team.
What is Next for Cleveland?
It is great to see the growth we have witnessed from Cleveland this year, and they have a legit chance to be a playoff team in the suddenly loaded East. Despite that, every action they take should be in the best interest of the long-term success of the Evan Mobley and Darius Garland tandem. If Cleveland gets back to the places only Lebron James has taken them in the past half-century, it is because those two and the supporting-cast around them are maximized. Jarrett Allen and Colin Sexton are also special, but those two are not Garland and Mobley as raw talents. Fortunately, we are seeing Mobley and Allen work as of now, and I think he will be the long-term five next to him. But in the long-run, as Mobley gets larger, we will learn more about what position he is naturally best at between the four and five spots, and that should be the top priority. Colin Sexton will also need to prove he can play off of Darius Garland instead of vice-versa, offensively. Can he relinquish some of his ball dominant nature and still play at a high-level next to Garland? We will have to wait and see.
This year alone, though, Cleveland should not make any substantial move that shakes up the roster. They are gaining traction in a rare and surprising fashion, it is vital to not mess up and continue to evaluate this core, and see if they can maintain this level of success. If they do make a move in the trade market, they need to find more floor spacers who aren’t near seven footers. If they add another wing or two who can hit open shots and defend, it adds to the lineup flexibility they can have. Surprisingly, Lauri Markkanen has seemed to work against certain teams as a three, but his lack of foot-speed for a wing could come to bite them against wing-heavy opponents. If they can replace him with someone who can defend high-level threes without sacrificing floor spacing by starting Isaac Okoro, that would make a huge different for the Cavaliers.