Why trading for Kyrie is worth the risk

Jul 31

Kyrie Irving has been an extremely unreliable player throughout his career, especially over his time in Brooklyn. In his first year in the city, he missed 56 games due to injuries. His second season saw him miss 21 games but not all due to injury. Irving even missed three games to party with his family for his sister’s birthday. Over his Nets tenure, he has only played in 103 of 226 possible games. Additionally, over the last five seasons, he has played in only 41 percent of his team's games.

So clearly, Irving presents his risks, but he is a damn good player when he gets on the court. Not named Uncle Drew for nothing, Irving put up 27.4 points per game, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 5.8 assists per game last season. He did so on 46.9 percent shooting, including 41.8 percent from three and 91.5 percent from the free throw line, which would have ranked third in the league had he played enough games to qualify. Irving is below the top tier of players like Giannis, Embiid, Curry, and Durant, who can carry a team through the playoffs. While he probably isn’t capable of doing so himself, he would be an incredible second option on any team and getting him as the third option would likely make a super team.

Teams that appear to have been rumored as being somewhat interested in Irving are the Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, and Philadelphia 76ers. Starting with the Lakers, they appear to have a great chance to make the playoffs should they stay healthy with a core of LeBron and Anthony Davis, but anyone that thinks they have a shot at winning it all did not watch Russell Westbrook last season.

Considering Irving’s fit with the Lakers, he would likely create a super team that runs almost all of its offense between Bron, AD, and himself. They already have very little depth, so the only difference would likely be Irving instead of Westbrook and whatever picks they include to make it work. So the Lakers probably have the easiest decision of all here, the chief problem being who will take Westbrook and his massive contract and whether they have the assets to even interest Brooklyn. It’s hard to imagine they do.

They have virtually no young players with potential, and they already gave up most of their draft picks trading for Westbrook and AD in the last couple of seasons. So right now, they have two first-round picks (2027 and 2029) to trade and can include up to six second-round picks. However, if they can pull it off, James and Irving have already shown they can win together. That was with Kevin Love instead of Anthony Davis, so this deal would likely make the Lakers title favorites next season. It’s also worth mentioning that most of Irving’s behavioral issues started after leaving LeBron in Cleveland, so this is probably the best fit to help his career.

For the Mavericks, a deal would have to start with Spencer Dinwiddie and include either Dwight Powell or Tim Hardaway Jr. to make the money match. Dallas can also include up to three first-round picks and three second-rounders to catch Brooklyn’s interest. Given Irving’s lack of perceived value around the league, it would probably take only two first-round picks. The trade would give Dallas a stellar starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Irving, Reggie Bullock, Christian Wood, and one of either Javale McGee, Maxi Kleber, or Davis Bertans.

The team wouldn’t be a title favorite, but they would be better than the team Dallas had last year, which made it to the Western Conference Finals and beat the top-seeded Phoenix Suns. Doncic is ready to win now and has shown the ability to will a team to victory more than any player who has entered the league since James. Doncic has never had a teammate like Uncle Drew, and this could be the Mavs' best chance to get one for cheap.

Now, onto the Sixers.

The Sixers appear to have decent odds for next season but are not guaranteed to get through Milwaukee or Boston as currently constructed. So it’s hard to say the Sixers have more than a 10-15 percent chance to win it all, which is still good but can be much better with Irving. A Sixers trade for Irving would start with Tobias Harris as he is necessary to make the money match and probably the most desirable player they might trade for Irving. Tyrese Maxey would be off the table as while he is not yet as good as Irving, the team would probably get worse, giving up both Maxey and Harris for him. That is without even considering his potential for improvement and cheap contract. From here, the Nets would probably demand Matisse Thybulle, possibly Jaden Springer, and a first-round pick. However, the team can only trade its 2029 first due to other trades that saw the Sixers give up their draft picks.

The Sixers could try and get Royce O’Neale back in the deal but likely do not have the leverage. This would give the Sixers a starting lineup of Harden, Maxey or House, Irving, Tucker, and Embiid. Maxey might have to come off the bench to give the team some size. The defense would decline but likely stay afloat enough to allow the Sixers to bludgeon teams with one of the best offenses ever. No team in the league has enough perimeter defenders to make things difficult for the three guards, and one would have a significant mismatch every night. If the Sixers started House and Tucker, the defense would still be decent, although the closing lineup would have to replace House with Maxey.

While there's a chance Irving gets injured or misses games for some other reason like he has always done, the risk is worth it for these three teams. The Lakers' only risk is trading their first-round picks, but they will not have a better chance to win a title before James declines. The Mavericks have no shot as constructed, and adding Irving gives them one. And the Sixers have the most risk as they could win a title as currently constructed, but chances are another similarly good team will beat them at some point, while this likely gives them a near 50-50 chance at a title if they are healthy.

Detractors will say they don’t want the risk of an unreliable player. But in sports, doing nothing is equivalent to these teams betting they are good enough to win as is. That appears to be a much bigger risk than going all in on an incredible player available for cheap.