The Battle for the Bottom of the Western Conference
If I had told you 10 years ago that one of the most intense aspects of the nba’s regular season is the battle for the 7 seed, you would call me a mad man.
Even 5 years ago, before the introduction of the play-in tournament, the final 2 seeds who make the playoffs in each conference (7th and 8th) mattered way less to fans. Historically, 7th and 8th seeded teams are not a real contender for the NBA title, and often lose in the 1st round to a 1st or 2nd seeded team. Yet, in the 2023 NBA playoffs, the conference finals featured the 7th seed Los Angeles Lakers, and the finals featured the 8th seed Miami Heat.
Parity is a great aspect of the nba the last few years, and as the league continues to get better and more competitive, even the lowest seeds have a chance. Since the play-in tournaments introduction in 2021, there have been many extremely competitive and fun games and a variety of team’s having playoff success.
Now, lets take a look around the potential play-in teams for 2024
The Western Conference all year has appeared to be the stronger conference, with 11 teams currently in playoff contention. The East has 10 teams in contention, yet the 9th seeded Bulls are 3 games under .500 and the 10th seeded Hawks are 8 games under .500. For comparison, in the West, the 9th seeded Lakers are 7 games over .500 and the 10th seeded Warriors are 2 games over .500. Further, the Suns, Kings, Mavs, and Lakers are all in a race for the 6th seed. Currently, the Suns lead for this seed, which may avoid the play-in, but they have the hardest remaining schedule among NBA teams. When one of those 4 teams secures the 6th seed, its clear the other 3 will need to win 1 or 2 play-in games to make the playoffs.
But let me offer a theory - What if the 7th seed is more valuable than the 6th?
Even though the 6th seed is a guaranteed playoff spot, the team who ends as 7th will face the 2nd seed instead of the 3rd. This could make for an easier first round, along with avoiding the best team in the West (Currently the Nuggets are the top seed). The 7th seed may end up playing a younger, less experienced playoff team such as the OKC Thunder. For veteran teams like the Suns, Kings, Mavs, and Lakers - playing the Thunder would be much more appealing than facing the Nuggets round 1.
I won’t make a prediction for who will end up as the 7th seed (AKA the top seed in the play-in tournament), but I will give you the facts. The 7th seed gets to play at home in the 1st play-in game, and gets a double elimination scenario where they can lose the 1st game and still make the playoffs. The 8th seed plays on the road for a shot at finishing as the 7th seed, but also gets a double elimination scenario. However, the 9th and 10th seeds can lose after only 1 play-in game, and have to win 2 total, to advance as the 8th seed in the NBA playoffs.
As it currently stands, starting from the bottom up, the Warriors or Rockets will be the 10th seed. Then, unless they have a miraculous finish to the season, the Lakers will be the 9th seed. 6th-8th is pretty much all tied up with the aforementioned Suns, Kings, and Mavs.
Of course, avoiding the play-in altogether is an amazing gift that the 6th seed receives. To truly understand the value of this prize, however, will require the Nuggets, Thunder, and T-Wolves sorting their standing at the top of the West. Again, assuming the Nuggets finish 1 and the T-Wolves finish 3, it could be beneficial for these teams to race for the 7th seed to play the OKC Thunder. Not the 6th.
Who knows what will happen, but this race among play-in teams for the 7th seed in the West has become one of the most underrated and compelling stories in the NBA to look forward to the next few weeks.
