Why Red Bull WON’T Win Every Race This Season

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We are over halfway through the F1 season, and fans are beginning to worry that we are in for a previously unthinkable level of year-long domination. Through the first 12 races on schedule, Red Bull Racing have not missed a beat, and have taken victory in every single event. Currently, Sergio Perez sits on two wins this season, and reigning world champion Max Verstappen has ten to his name. The Dutchman has been on flawless form since lights out in Bahrain, and is riding an absurd eight race winning streak. With Red Bull firing on all cylinders, some people believe that they will achieve the impossible, and win every single race of a Formula One season. While I must admit that the odds of a new winner this year may seem bleak, I do not think that the RB19 will be victorious from here on out. Here are four reasons why Red Bull will NOT secure a perfect record this season.

1. Reliability: No F1 team is impervious to the odd part failure, even though Red Bull have avoided this bug thus far. Formula One cars have been blowing engines, breaking parts, and losing pieces since the dawn of time, and while reliability has drastically improved over the last 5-10 years, it is still very much a relevant concern. To go a full 22 race year without one internal failure would be almost unheard of. Even the all-conquering Mercedes of the turbo-hybrid era had their occasional mechanical woes. The chances that Red Bull can keep the RB19 working in tip-top shape all the way from now until November are slim, and in all likelihood, a mechanical DNF will keep Verstappen or Perez out of contention for at least one race.

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2. Driver errors: Even though Max Verstappen is doing his best impression of a robot at the moment, no one is perfect. The Dutchman has had a few slip ups this year, although none of them major enough to cost him much of anything. But Verstappen, as are all F1 drivers, is one mistake away from ending one of his races prematurely, and opening up the door to someone else. His teammate Sergio Perez is no stranger to having costly moments this year, as is reflected in his run of disastrous qualifyings. It’s not unfathomable to think that Perez or Verstappen might put their car in the wall at some point soon, especially in tricky conditions, which can catch even the best drivers out. 

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3. Chaos: Sometimes, F1 drivers lose races through no fault of their own. There are so many elements of a weekend that are out of their control, and oftentimes those elements can keep a worthy winner from reaching the top step of the podium. Someone could cause a crash on the first lap that takes out both Red Bulls. There’s always the chance of an ill-timed safety car, such as the one that caught out Lewis Hamilton in the 2020 Italian Grand Prix. Perhaps the weather will end a race early, and hand the win to an unlikely hero. Luck has been on Red Bull’s side all year long, but you never know when it will turn south. Verstappen and Perez had better keep a firm hold of their four leaf clovers if they want to remain unbeaten from here on out.

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4. Development race: The most likely cause of Red Bull dropping a race this season is that they simply get straight-up beaten. There’s a reason why no team has ever won every race in an F1 year; maintaining a car that is far and away the best in the field for a full season is extremely difficult to achieve. Not only that, but teams that lock up both championships early on often coast the last few weeks of the year, not caring about handing a win or two to rivals as long as they have the ultimate prizes already in hand. Red Bull experienced this last year, when they likely stopped developing their 2022 car to work on the beast that would be their 2023 entry. Due to this, other teams quickly closed the gap to them, and sure enough, Mercedes managed to steal a 1-2 finish in Brazil in a race that saw them beat Red Bull on pure pace. The loss was largely inconsequential to Christian Horner and the whole team, but it proved that no matter how far ahead you are in F1, you can quickly fall behind if you take your foot off the gas. McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari are all hot on Red Bull’s heels at the moment, and if Horner decides to focus the team’s full attention on next year, they will likely give up a few victories before the end of the season.

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What do you think? Will Red Bull lose a race this year, and if so, what factor will be at play that will cost them the win?