A Look At The Playoff Bubble Entering The Final Month Of The Regular Season
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After Chris Buescher’s surprising victory at Richmond last Sunday, only four playoff spots remain on points and there are four races left in the regular season. The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Michigan this Sunday and then there will be back to back road course races at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen before the regular season finale at Daytona. Although Buescher’s win was unexpected, he sat firmly above the cutoff line going into the race so there was not much change around the bubble. There are still some drivers that can point their way into the playoffs and I will go through each one of them but first here are the two drivers that should be locks to make the 16 driver field despite not winning a race so far this year.
Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski:
These two Ford drivers have shown consistency all season long and they showed that at Richmond, both finishing inside the top 10. For Keselowski, it is a complete turnaround from last year. Keselowski missed the playoffs for the first time since 2013 last season but now he is back in form +151 coming into his home state of Michigan this weekend and I think it is only a matter of time before he snaps his winless streak. As for Harvick, he is slightly ahead of Keselowski in the standings at +182 and he is going to a track he won at last season so maybe he will be able to repeat and clinch a playoff berth through a win. Overall, these past champions should be good to make it in on points as long as first time winners do not sweep the last four races, which is highly unlikely.
Bubba Wallace:
A couple of weeks ago, Bubba Wallace sat at +2 in the standings, right above the cutoff line so he had pressure to perform at Pocono and Richmond. In those two races, Wallace ran near the front, collecting stage points and ultimately finishing 11th and 12th but other drivers’ struggles helped him boost his cushion up to +54 heading into Michigan where he won the pole and finished second last season. The opportunity to stretch out the point gap is there for the taking and he could use some more points before the back to back road course races as Wallace has always struggled on those during his whole Cup Series career. Bubba should be feeling comfortable right now with his situation but he needs to continue to run well and carry on the positive momentum.
Michael McDowell:
Michael McDowell has an entirely different outlook than Wallace for the upcoming races since McDowell is an elite road course racer so the races at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen could be the final boost he needs for an unlikely and impressive playoff berth. He is +18 above 17th right now and the road courses could help him catch Wallace for 15th and move him out of the last spot. This would be beneficial because a new winner outside the top 16 would bump the last driver below the cutoff line. Regardless, if McDowell makes it in or not, this has still be an impressive run as this #34 team and Front Row Motorsports as a whole have made great strides during the NextGen car era.
Photo From Front Row Motorsports
Ty Gibbs:
Over the past couple of races, Ty Gibbs has trimmed his points deficit from -41 to -18 after getting his first career Cup Series top-5 at Pocono and then finishing 15th at Richmond. Gibbs has some solid momentum with him as well right now and he is also a solid road course racer and he is driving in top tier equipment at Joe Gibbs Racing. It seems that Gibbs is getting a handle on the Cup Series now so maybe he can pull out a win in the coming weeks to guarantee a spot in the playoffs in his rookie season. He has had success at Michigan so far in his young career too, winning there last season in the Xfinity Series so another top-5 or top-10 for Gibbs is very possible in this weekend’s race.
AJ Allmendinger:
Like McDowell, another road course specialist will try to make the most of the two road courses coming up to make it into the 16 driver field and this is AJ Allmendinger, who comes into Michigan at -22. AJ’s move last week to go to Road America to run the Xfinity race instead of practicing and qualifying for the Cup race at Richmond surprised a lot of people and it might have cost him some valuable points as he struggled throughout the race. However, I think that he is set on not worrying about points for the next four races and he will focus on grabbing a win at Indianapolis or Watkins Glen so he can book Kaulig Racing’s first trip to the Cup Series playoffs. Allmendinger has won at both tracks before in his Cup career too so he should have a lot of confidence going into the homestretch of the regular season.
Daniel Suarez:
After making the playoffs last season, Daniel Suarez has taken a step back recently as he has struggled for most of July making his chances of qualifying for the playoffs quite slim. Suarez had hovered around the cutoff line for most of the season and after his runner-up finish at Atlanta, he was on the right side of the bubble but not by much at +3. Over the next three races, Suarez finished 16th at New Hampshire, dead last at Pocono after an early crash took him out, and 33rd at Richmond after showing no speed all race long and spinning out late in the race. He is now -34 to McDowell but Suarez is another driver who is solid on road courses as his only career win came last season at Sonoma. However, the #99 team has been trending downwards lately and it’s going to take a significant change in momentum for them to bounce right back into contention to take the 16th position in the standings.
Chase Elliott:
Ever since Chase Elliott returned from injury the question was not if but where will he get his win to lock himself into the playoffs but that win still has not come yet. As the regular season moved along, a new question was raised: could Chase Elliott point his way in despite missing all those races? His early crash at Charlotte and suspension for the next race at Gateway did not help his chances but he is still within reach coming into Michigan at -40. The problem is not the gap but the amount of drivers he has to pass in the standings and there is always the threat of a driver further behind in points winning their way in too. His odds might be against him but I would not completely write off the former Cup Series champion as he is another elite road course racer who has two wins at Watkins Glen in his career.
Alex Bowman:
Another Hendrick Motorsports driver who has missed races this year is Alex Bowman and at one point early in the season, Bowman was the points leader. However, a 60 point penalty after the spring Richmond race dropped him down to seventh in the standings but he was still sitting comfortably. At the time of his injury, he fell slightly to ninth in the standings and when he came back after his three race absence, he sat in the 16th position, the final playoff spot.
It is clear that Bowman and the #48 team have not found their stride since Alex returned to the seat as he has not registered a top 10 finish since that Richmond race he got penalized in. Bowman’s best run recently came at Pocono, where he was running third late in the race but after spinning out in Turn 3, he ended up finishing 24th. Bowman is right behind his teammate Chase Elliott in the standings at -42 and he is the last driver that I think has a chance of making it in on points with some solid runs as the driver behind Bowman, Austin Cindric, is -64 to McDowell which is about a full race of points behind. The time is now for Bowman to recapture his early season speed or he will miss the playoffs for the first time since joining Hendrick Motorsports.
The battle for the final couple of playoff spots is always entertaining and it should be a hectic and dramatic last few weeks in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season to see who gets in and who misses out on the 2023 playoffs.
