Team Belli vs Team Yeli: 4 Years later.
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In the last days of the 2019 Major League Baseball season, a debate engulfed the world of baseball. Should Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger be named the National League MVP? Or should it be awarded to Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich?
Both sides had ample evidence with which to argue. Offensively, supporters of Bellinger signaled to his .305 batting average, .406 on-base percentage (OBP), his 1.035 on-base plus slugging (OPS), his 47 home runs, and his 115 runs-batted-in (RBI).
Defensively they pointed to his prowess, not just in the outfield but in the infield. Due to injuries, Bellinger split time between the outfield and first base. Despite this, the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year finished with a .990 fielding percentage no matter where he played while making four errors all season en route to a Gold Glove.
Bellinger also finished the season with an NL-best 8.6 wins against replacement (WAR) by Baseball-Reference’s calculations (bWAR) and 7.7 WAR by Fangraphs (fWAR) metrics. Only Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman finished with a higher WAR according to both sides, while Mike Trout ranked first on the latter. Trout would go on to win the American League MVP. Bregman would finish second.
As for Yelich, his base pointed to the fact that he finished higher than Bellinger in almost every offensive metric aside from home runs and RBIs. Yelich’s .329 batting average, .429 OBP, .671 slugging percentage, 1.100 OPS, and 179 On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) are all higher than Bellinger’s.
In the 51 seasons since the Brewers franchise began, no player had ever arguably had a better single season than Yelich. His 2019 campaign ranks first in slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, offensive win percentage, and tied with Prince Fielder for first in runs created. He’d finish second all-time in OBP, third in win probability added (WPA), fifth in runs scored, sixth in home runs, and seventh in total bases.
To make things simple, MLB took a page from Twilight’s marketing campaign. You were either Team Belli or Team Yeli.
On November 14, 2019, the Baseball Writers Association of America declared themselves Team Belli. By 45 points, the Dodgers phenom plucked the crown off Yelich’s head and placed it upon his own.
With Yelich 27 years old and Bellinger just 23, the two sides found solace regardless of the latter’s coronation. These two players were the future of the NL, if not MLB. This was just round one of many between the two.
If someone went into a coma the day the NL MVP was announced and woke up today, there’d be a lot to explain in baseball. The Astros were cheaters. The Washington Nationals won the World Series with Juan Soto, then traded him. The baseball itself was juiced. The New York Mets are now a contender with an owner who cares. The Boston Red Sox traded Mookie Betts. The Cleveland Guardians now exist. Freddie Freeman is a Dodger.
Among that list of unbelievable storylines, perhaps the least believable would be the notion that since they dueled for the MVP, Bellinger and Yelich have combined for 4.7 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR. That’s less than either posted in 2019, regardless of your site of preference.
Yet like every other change to the game since 2019, this is true. The once princes and future kings of the NL have devolved to nothing. How we got here is a long story, but here’s the gist. Both players have lost their power stroke, Bellinger has developed a strikeout habit in exchange for his walk rate, and Yelich has put more balls on the ground than in the air.
Things are rarely that simple, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s explore these two, starting with Bellinger.
When the 2019 MVP was at his best, he was selective enough to know which pitches to avoid while being capable enough to know which he could destroy.
He hit a home run in 7.1 percent of his at-bats, shaved his then career strikeout rate from 25.2 percent to 16.3 percent, and bolstered his walk rate by four percent. He could barrel balls so well his line drive rate was nearly identical to his flyball rate. In addition, his average exit velocity was 14th in the NL.
All those skills have evaporated, however. Bellinger holds the dubious honor of finishing top five in strikeouts among all Dodgers for three years straight. Over the last two years, he’s eighth on the team in walks. His discipline has also fallen down the drain. In the three years since 2019, Bellinger’s drawn 89 walks. In 2019, he drew 95.
His line drive percentage has also decreased over the last five years, from 30 percent in 2019 to 22.1 percent this season. His flyball and opposite-field percentage have increased these last two seasons leading him to be a far less effective hitter.
On the whole, Bellinger has 38 home runs, and 116 RBIs, with a .200/.271/.379 slash line for a .650 OPS and a 75 OPS+ since 2019. That’s one RBI fewer than his MVP campaign alone.
To say Bellinger has regressed would be an understatement. He’s reached the point where he’s 129th in batting average, 133rd in OBP, and 96th in OPS among all outfielders with 150 at-bats.
While Yelich hasn’t fallen into the depth of dismal play Bellinger has, he is still a shell of the player that signed a seven-year deal in 2020. Over the last three years, the 30-year-old has accumulated 30 home runs to 109 RBIs with a .240/.359/.387 slash for a .745 OPS. Like Bellinger, his production in three years only roughly equates to what he did four seasons ago.
The biggest reason for this decreased production is that Yelich can no longer drive the ball with the same power or consistency he once did. His average exit velocity has decreased every year since 2019, while his line drive percentage has fallen in the last two seasons.
When he can put the bat on the ball this season, he’s putting it in the infield far more than in the outfield. Yelich’s 56.7 ground ball percentage is second-highest in all of baseball, and his 17.8 percent fly ball percentage is ninth-worst. His 1.34 ground ball to fly ball ratio is the highest in baseball, while his 20.5 line drive percentage is 127th out of 145 possible players.
The bigger problem for Yelich is this is not a new trend. His 1.9 home run percentage this season would be the lowest of his career since 2015, except he posted the same mark in 2021. Last year that percentage tied Yelich for the 114th best in the Majors. This year it’s tied for 113th.
In layman’s terms, the player that hit 44 home runs in 2019 no longer exists. He hasn’t in several seasons, and at this point, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever resurface.
Aside from their general struggles, the two MVPs have also struggled to stay healthy. Bellinger’s health problems began in the 2020 playoffs with the now infamous forearm bump with then-teammate Kiké Hernández. The “bump” resulted in a dislocated shoulder, which, combined with several other dislocations, resulted in labrum surgery that same offseason.
Likewise, the 2021 campaign saw three IL stints. One for a hairline fracture in his left leg, another for hamstring tightness, and one for a left rib cage fracture. The trio forced Bellinger to miss 66 games that season.
While Bellinger has played in 105 out of a possible 115 games this season, he battled left leg tightness in late May. However, even when he’s not battling injuries, he’s battling with himself. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts benched the outfielder in the team’s most recent series, not because of injury. So Bellinger can mentally “reset himself.”
Yelich, on the other hand, has faced injuries earlier than his counterpart, though their frequency has faded. In September 2019, the outfielder broke his right kneecap. Two seasons later, a back injury that dates back to his days as a Miami Marlin caused him to miss five weeks.
This season has been a different story for Yelich. He’s played 110 games and is on pace to play as much as he did in 2019. Yet the player that changed the atmosphere in American Family Field has been dormant ever since he lost the MVP four years ago.
From Soto to Shohei Ohtani, Adley Rutschman to Julio Rodríguez, and many more still to come, the future of baseball is in good hands. Just not in those it expected to be in four years ago during one of the best MVP races the sport had seen.
