Projected Standings for the 2023 MLB Season
With plenty of new faces in new places, the MLB regular season is just over one month away. Image: MLB.com
Baseball is back! More than 100 days after the Astros cemented their spot in history as World Series champions, most teams’ pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training last Wednesday, with positional players following a few days later. The MLB offseason has been full of surprises, from the Mets spending $500 million on free agents to a star shortstop version of musical chairs. With just about every roster being turned upside down, it’s time to do what sports fans do best before the season: predict outcomes. That being said, the following is my projection for the 2023 MLB regular season.
AL WEST
1. Houston Astros - 95-67
The defending champions said goodbye to many key pieces including Justin Verlander, but the signing of 1B Jose Abreu and a complete roster make the ‘Stros the favorites in the west.
2. Seattle Mariners - 92-70, 3 GB
The Mariners have been a team chasing the Astros in the west for years, and they nearly caught them in the ALDS matchup between the two teams last year. This year, young star Julio Rodriguez looks to lead a team full of familiar names to a division title but will fall just short. Nevertheless, the Mariners will be a scary team for anyone to face in the playoffs.
3. Texas Rangers - 79-83, 16 GB
The Rangers seem to be going all-in on making themselves contenders with signings like Jacob DeGrom this year as well as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last year, but it isn’t complete enough of a roster to be a playoff contender just yet.
4. Los Angeles Angels - 66-96, 29 GB
The Halos boast two of the top five players in baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but they play on a roster that hasn’t been a contender in a long time. This may be the year they tear it all down again, with rumors of both players being let go.
5. Oakland Athletics - 61-101, 34 GB
With one of the worst rotations in baseball and a lineup that looks equally dismal, A’s fans are in for a rough season. Stuck in the basement of a strong division, Oakland is a safe bet as a 100+ loss team.
AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians - 88-74
After a season that ended one game away from the ALCS, the Guardians will be looking to repeat as division champs. A strong rotation along with a good mix of veterans and young prospects in the lineup should propel Cleveland to another division championship.
2. Minnesota Twins - 86-76, 2 GB
The return of Carlos Correa adds to a homerun-mashing lineup that pairs well with a decent rotation. The Twins should be in the thick of things for a wide-open division.
3. Kansas City Royals - 81-81, 7 GB
The Royals, who have been in a deep rebuild since a 2015 championship, are perhaps the biggest candidate to surprise everyone this year. If their talented-yet-unproven young pieces play out properly, Kansas City could finally be on the rise.
4. Chicago White Sox - 70-92, 18 GB
The loss of former MVP Jose Abreu will prove majorly detrimental, and the squad, despite a star-powered lineup, is the odd man out in the division.
5. Detroit Tigers - 67-95, 21 GB
The Tigers aren’t giving their fans much to be excited about before opening day. A young, rebuilding roster means that fans shouldn’t expect to see them anywhere near the top of the standings in 2023.
AL EAST
1. New York Yankees - 102-60
The Yanks added Carlos Rodon to an already powerful rotation, but the lineup will likely be turned upside down over the next few years. For now, though, they find themselves with the highest projected win total in the MLB, especially after locking up Aaron Judge.
2. Toronto Blue Jays - 97-65, 5 GB
Toronto boasts one of the deepest lineups in the league, as they can lose practically anyone to injury and carry on. A strong group of starting pitchers makes this team a formidable wild-card squad.
3. Baltimore Orioles - 86-76, 16 GB
The O’s have gotten a lot of hype recently after a massive rebuild, but the team still doesn’t have all the pieces yet. If guys like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson develop like the front office hopes, Baltimore will be right in the middle of an AL Wild Card race.
4. Tampa Bay Rays - 75-87, 27 GB
The Rays had one of the worst offseasons in the league, losing a number of talented players while gaining very little. This year’s projections have Tampa Bay losing 11 more games than last year, and a roster that lacks excitement should keep them relatively out of reach of the playoffs.
5. Boston Red Sox - 73-89, 29 GB
The Red Sox were relatively active this offseason, locking up Rafael Devers and most notably acquiring Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner. However, the losses of Xander Bogaerts and Tommy Pham, among others, leave Boston floundering in a strong AL East.
NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres - 101-61
The Padres boast what might be the best lineup in baseball, but their rotation leaves many questions unanswered. If their arms can avoid injury, San Diego could be in the conversation as World Series frontrunners.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers - 98-64, 3 GB
After a heartbreaking NLDS loss to the Padres, the Dodgers cleaned house a bit and found themselves in a sort of youth movement. With losses including Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and many others, LA finds itself in a season of unknowns.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - 83-79, 18 GB
The D-Backs are another team on the rise in 2023, especially after a 110-loss season in 2021. Last season, they started to put together a young pitching group that will more than hold its own this year. Add to that a few big-name moves this winter like Evan Longoria, and you’ve got .500 ball.
4. San Francisco Giants - 76-86, 25 GB
This year’s Giants roster is… fine. It lacks any sort of excitement, but makes up for it with one of the deepest depth charts in the league. A solid rotation one through five makes the Giants a lock for 70-80 wins, but upside is limited.
5. Colorado Rockies - 58-104, 43 GB
The Rockies took a roster that lacked talent and made it somehow less talented. With some of the “biggest” names on the roster leaving in free agency, this team is undergoing one of the biggest rebuilds in MLB history and won’t be a contender again for quite some time.
NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals - 92-70
A dominant rotation and young (but polished) lineup put the Cardinals atop an NL Central that’s typically up for grabs. Fleshing out a decent bullpen will certainly help win some games as they battle toward a playoff berth.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - 86-76, 6 GB
The Brew Crew has the most talented lineup in the Central, but it could easily fall apart. When injuries happen, and in a 162-game season, they do, Milwaukee may not be able to plug the gaps. Nevertheless, the talent on the roster can easily propel them to a wild-card berth.
3. Chicago Cubs - 75-87, 17 GB
The Cubs are one of the more improved teams in the MLB, with signings including Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, and Cody Bellinger. A rotation that lacks excitement as well as a lower-end bullpen keeps this team grounded, however, and I have them picking up only one win from last year.
4. Cincinnati Reds - 68-94, 24 GB
The Reds franchise hasn’t strung together too many wins in the past decade, but with a promising young core group including Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene, they’re right on the cusp of being a team worthy of a playoff berth. For now, though, the turnaround will be slow going and this season shouldn’t amount to much.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates - 68-94, 24 GB
Pittsburgh wasn’t particularly active this offseason, as perhaps the highlight was the return of Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates were tied for last in the Central last season with the Reds, and it looks like this year should produce the exact same results.
NL EAST
1. New York Mets - 96-66
Since the richest owner in the MLB took over in 2020, the Mets haven’t looked back financially. An influx of big-name free agents has pushed the payroll to an MLB-record $336 million, eight times as much as the lowest in the category. High spending has been a trademark for the Mets the past few years, but last season, it only led to a wild-card berth that quickly ended the campaign. This season, it looks like their spending might finally give the Mets the elusive NL East title.
2. Atlanta Braves - 94-68, 2 GB
The Braves are simply a well-built team. The roster checks all the boxes, with a strong rotation that continues to improve, a star-powered lineup, and a rock-solid bullpen. Add some of the best depth at every position, and this team should be a lock to make the playoffs, and a contender once they get there.
3. Philadelphia Phillies - 83-79, 13 GB
The reigning NL champs had one of the biggest signings of the offseason in Trea Turner, and are pretty solid all around. Unfortunately, they play in one of the toughest divisions in the game, and appear to be the odd man out in the division race. Despite being several games back from the Mets and Braves, the Phillies find themselves sneaking into the playoffs again, and we all know how dangerous they can be in that situation.
4. Miami Marlins - 70-92, 26 GB
The best pitcher in the NL last year, Sandy Alcantara, leads a decent rotation, but the lineup doesn’t look like anything special for the Marlins. The addition of Luis Arraez gives them an everyday starter at first base, but Miami should still be stagnating in the standings.
5. Washington Nationals - 64-98, 32 GB
After winning it all in 2019, the Nationals tore it down, and find themselves in the middle of a rebuild this season. Shipping off Juan Soto to the Padres at the trade deadline last year bolstered their farm system, but this team is still several years away from contention.
