Padres Acquire Two-Time Batting Champion Luis Arraez from the Marlins
Phoenix, AZ (PSF) — Just a month into the 2024 MLB Season, two teams, albeit ones going in very different directions, have made a significant move.
This Friday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the news that the San Diego Padres were acquiring two-time All-Star and two-time Batting Champion Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins. The return for the rebuilding Miami Marlins is Padres’ 2023 first-round pick Dillon Head (SDP #8 prospect), outfielder Jakob Marsee (SDP #10 prospect), Nathan Martorella (SDP #24 prospect in 2023), and Korean Relief Pitcher Woo-Suk Go (4.38 ERA, 15 K in 12.1 IP in AA).
The Marlins are reportedly paying Arraez’s salary down to the MLB minimum, meaning that they will pay Arraez $8.5 million, while the Padres will only cover the league minimum of Arraez’s contract. That number sits around $550,000.
Arraez, who turned 27 earlier this month, is a high-impact addition for a Padres team that has struggled to get consistent production from its middle infielders in Ha-Seong Kim (.711 on-base plus slugging) and Xander Bogaerts (.583 on-base plus slugging).
The former Minnesota Twin and Miami Marlin is a career .325/.378/.424/.802 hitter (2,340 PA) with 24 home runs, 207 runs batted in, and 692 career hits. His lowest single-season batting average came in 2021 at .294, which was still 50 points above the MLB Leaguewide batting average that year (.244).
He was a two-time All-Star with both Minnesota and Miami (2022 & 2023), won the AL and NL Batting Titles both of those years and is a two-time Silver Slugger.
In 2023, he hit a league-leading.354, and had fans of all fanbases watching him hit as he flirted with a .400 bating average season. He hit .383 in the first half of the year and had an astounding 126 hits, 22 extra-base hits, and just 19 strikeouts in 362 plate appearances. However, he “cooled off” in the second half of the season and hit .314/.335/.465 in the 61 second-half games he played in.
Arraez is a bit of a dying breed in today’s power-oriented hitting atmosphere, where the 3-outcome approach of walk, strikeout, or home runs is more prevalent than ever. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, with an 86.4 average exit velocity (17th percentile - baseball savant), has one of the lowest hard-hit percentages in the league at 22.6 percent (3rd percentile), and does not walk much (5.2 percent walk rate - 13th percentile), however, Arraez has one of the most complete hit tools in the league.
He boasts the lowest strikeout rate in the MLB at 7 percent, and virtually never swings and misses (9.5 percent whiff rate - 99th percentile), and gets the barrel of the bat to the ball with elite hand quickness and swing mechanics (45.9 percent sweet spot percentage — 98th percentile).
Simply put, Arraez can flat-out hit. He won’t provide you with much power or speed, but he is both a reliable table-setter with the frequency with which he hits, or a consistent run-producer with his ability to always put the bat on the ball. He set a career-high in both hits (203), and runs batted in last-year (69).
In just his first game as a Padre, Arraez made franchise history, becoming the first Padre to ever go 4-4 in their Padres debut.
For the Padres, who are competing for a playoff spot, this is a high-impactful move that will greatly help both now, and come playoff time.
Where Arraez will play on defense will be question mark, as his limited athleticism (-8 outs above average - range) and arm strength (73.7 average throw velocity - 8th percentile) make him a difficult fit at both first and second base, the two defensive positions he has most frequently occupied at the Major League level. He has graded out as a better defender at second base, where he can spell Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim (where Bogaerts plays shortstop) on their rest days. With Jake Cronenworth still grading out strongly defensively at first, he likely will not play first unless Cronenworth receives a rest day as well.
Arraez’s value is with his bat - and the DH position just so happens to be wide open for the Padres with Manny Machado returning to the hot corner. Arraez will mostly DH, and receive starts at first and second base on occasion.
The 9-26 Marlins, contrary to the Padres, seem to be throwing a towel in on the season. Just over a month into the season, the Marlins already began their fire sale and traded arguably their best player.
According to President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix, who already stated that the Marlins were “unlikely to make the playoffs this year”, stated that although difficult, moves like trading Arraez were part of an ownership-approved dual-timeline plan, as they begin to build towards the future while developing players in the present.
In terms of returns, the Marlins are banking on the four players they received becoming both contributors now (Go), and in the future with Head, Marsee, and Martorella.
Head was a first-round pick of the 2023 MLB draft. Scouted to become an above-average contact hitter with an advanced approach and above-average speed, he will likely be the center-fielder of the future if Jazz Chisholm Jr. is ever moved.
Marsee was in consideration for the Padres’ Center Field Opening-Day roster spot but ultimately did not make the roster. He has an extremely advanced approach and above-average bat-to-ball skills but lacks power. Both he and Head are Outfielders and have similar profiles.
Martorella has more power than Head and Marsee, with an advanced plate approach as well, but his subpar defensive metrics have projected him to eventually become a DH.
As mentioned earlier, Go has had mixed results in Double-A for the Padres, sporing a mid-4’s ERA, but good strikeout stuff. Bendix stated that he could be a contributor sooner-than-later, and may be brought up to the Marlins within the next few months.
With Bendix, Marlins ownership, and the team seemingly accepting defeat just a week into May, more moves may be to come for the Marlins in what surely will be a hardcore fire sale until the MLB trade deadline.
