Javier Baez's Struggles in Detroit
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
It has only been two years since the Detroit Tigers signed the two-time all-star and former runner-up MVP Javier Baez. Baez signed a six-year, $140 million contract before the 2022 season. At the time of the signing, manager AJ Hinch described Baez as an “elite player.” Now, two years into the contract, Baez has yet to show he is “elite” and is only getting worse as he ages.
Defensively, Baseball savant had Baez in the 83rd percentile for fielding range, 88th percentile in arm strength, and 68th percentile in fielding run value in 2021. Though he may not have the same offensive capabilities he used to, he should be able to provide solid defense at shortstop again this upcoming year in 2023; Baez showed he could be a premium defender at the shortstop position as he was in the 85th percentile in fielding run value.
Offensively, Baez has been different from the player he was in prior years. The 30-year-old has always been known as a “free-swinger” but was able to counter that with his ability to barrel the ball. According to Baseball Savant, in 2021, Baez was in the 73rd percentile in batting run value. In more detail, Baez had a barrel percentage of 13.7 percent, 36th in all of baseball in 2021, and a hard-hit percentage of 45.3 percent, the highest of his career. Since Baez was able to hit the ball hard when he did make contact, his strikeout percentage, and swing-and-miss percentage did not seem as important. In 2021, Baez had a strikeout percentage of 33.6 percent, bottom three percent in all of the MLB in 2021, and a whiff rate of 40.1 percent, which was in the one percentile on Baseball Savant.
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2023 has been a different story offensively for Baez. Baez hit .222 and had nine home runs, a drastic decline in production where two years ago, he hit .265 and had 31 home runs. Baez has dropped from the 73rd percentile in batting run value in 2021 to the 4th percentile. Baez has taken positive strides in strikeouts as he is in the 42nd percentile compared to the bottom three in 2021, but he still leads the league in chase percentage and is in the bottom 12th percentage in whiff percentage. What stands out most between the two years is Baez’s barrel percentage, which went from 13.7 percent in 2021 to 5.2 percent in 2023.
These factors, offensively, give a clear view of why Javier Baez has yet to be the player the Detroit Tigers thought they were getting. With four more years in his contract, it will be interesting to see what the Tigers organization plans to do with Baez if this level of play continues as he is only getting older.
