Worrisome West? Baseball’s Western Divisions Struggling to Open 2024 Season
In a strange twist of fate, MLB’s Western Divisions — the AL and NL West, considered to be two of baseball’s stronger divisions besides the AL East, have been baseball’s two worst divisions this year.
Considered to be a strong group, with 7 potential playoff teams: the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Astros, and the defending World Series Champion Rangers, those teams have combined for just a 74-86 record on the year.
They are the only two divisions in baseball where all 5 teams have double-digit losses.
Here’s how they stack up, within their respective divisions:
AL WEST:
(1) Rangers (11-11)
(2) Mariners (10-11)
*(5) Astros (7-16)
NL WEST:
*(1) Dodgers (13-11)
(2) Padres (12-12)
(3) Diamondbacks (11-12)
(4) Giants (10-13)
*Astros in the AL West’s Cellar: In the AL, the Astros have gotten off to a staggeringly poor start. My pick to represent the American League in the World Series this year, the Astros have been decimated by pitching injuries, evidenced by the 5.10 team ERA, the second-worst in the league. Starters Christian Javier, Framber Valdez, and Jose Urquidy are all expected to be out until later this month, or May, while Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers are not expected back until midseason. Justin Verlander returned this week, but the Astros’ starting pitching depth is paper-thin at the moment.
Weak bullpen performances have not helped the Astros compensate for their rotation losses. The Astros have only converted 2 saves in 8 opportunities, with both coming from the struggling Josh Hader (8.38 ERA, 9 earned runs in 9.2 innings). Collectively, the Astros bullpen has a 5.36 ERA, third-worst in baseball behind the Phillies and Giants. They’ve allowed 53 earned runs, second-worst in the league behind the first-place tie of 54 earned runs (Marlins and Rays).
Offensively, they have the fifth-best team OPS (on-base plus slugging) at .741, but having to outscore your opponent every game is not a recipe for winning baseball.
*Dodgers Inconsistent: The Dodgers’ struggles are less concerning, more so due to slow starts than longer-term concerns like injuries.
The Dodgers sit at 13-11, after dropping three straight series against the Padres, Nations, and Mets at home.
Their biggest issue has been starting pitching as well, as injuries to rotation pieces and tested the depth of their arms — however a strong start from Tyler Glasnow (2.92 ERA), positive flashes from $325 million pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and quality innings from James Paxton (2.81 ERA) have helped stabilize the rotation, even with some overturn.
The injury to Bobby Miller is unfortunate, but according it is apparently “nothing serious”.
This team, scarily enough, has room to improve offensively. Although they sit fourth in the MLB in team OPS (.764), their players in the bottom of their order have yet to hit their stride. All of Gavin Lux (.388 OPS), Chris Taylor (.259 OPS), Jason Heyward (.414 OPS), Kike Hernandez (.496 OPS), and James Outman (.566 OPS) have struggled to find their form offensively, and should eventually regress to the mean.
The Astros should be in panic mode, but the Dodgers will be just fine.
Rounding out the other underperforming teams are the Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, Mariners, and Rangers.
3 of these teams (Mariners, Giants, and Padres) have struggled, or been mediocre in a key area this season:
Bad Offense:
Mariners: .668 Team OPS — 23rd in MLB
Bad Defense:
Padres: 15 errors — 21st in MLB / -2 Team Defensive Runs Saved — 18th in the league
Bad Pitching:
Giants: 4.88 Team ERA — 26th in MLB / 5.56 Bullpen ERA — 29th in MLB, 2 blown saves
Rangers 4.19 Team ERA — 20th in MLB / 5.05 Bullpen ERA — 23rd in MLB, 3 blown saves
Mariners’ Offensive Woes: The Mariners’ offensive has been tepid, highlighted by 219 team strikeouts, the fourth-most in baseball. Ty France’s 5 double plays grounded into are tied for second in the league with Miami’s Jake Burger. As a middle-of-the-order bat for Seatte, these are backbreaking when they need him to produce runs. They have 11 (!!!) players above the MLB-average 22.7% strikeout rate:
SO% = percentage of plate appearance a batter strikes out
PA = plate appearances — number of times a batter has gone to hit
Dylan Moore — 22.9% SO% (48 PA)
Jonatan Clase — 23.8% SO% (21 PA)
Mitch Garver — 27.5% SO% (69 PA)
Mitch Haniger — 28% SO% (82 PA)
Cal Raleigh — 28.9% SO% (76 PA)
Jorge Polanco — 30% SO% (90 PA)
Seby Savala — 31.3% SO% (16 PA)
Dominic Canzone — 31.4% SO% (35 PA)
Julio Rodriguez — 31.5% SO% (92 PA)
Luke Raley — 34.3 SO% (35 PA)
Luis Urias — 36.7% SO% (30 PA)
They have just 3 consistent playing time players with an OPS above .800 in Cal Raleigh (.827), Dominic Canzone (.817), and Josh Rojas (.814), and their best bat Julio Rodriguez has been off to a slower start than expected (.625 OPS).
This team is struggling immensely offensively. Although players should begin to round into form over the course of the season, the rate at which the Mariners strike out is quite concerning for a team with playoff aspirations.
Giants and Rangers Enduring Pitching Inconsistencies: Both the Giants and the Rangers have experienced troubles with their pitching consistency this season.
Both of these teams share parallels with the state of their pitching. Both the Giants (Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray) and the Rangers (Max Scherzer, Jacob DeGrom, Tyler Mahle) are expecting back key rotation contributors at some point during the season. While reinforcements are coming, both rotations have seen inconsistencies from the back end of their rotations, but have started to see some stabilization.
In wake of the rotation injuries, each team has gotten productions from new additions to the 2024 rotation. The Giants have gotten nice contributions from Jordan Hicks (1.61 ERA) and Keaton Winn (4.09 ERA), and the Rangers from Michael Lorenzen (2.45 ERA), Jose Urena (3.52 ERA), and Dane Dunning (3.91 ERA)
For both teams, the bullpen is a bigger issue.
The Giants lost Luke Jackson at the start of the season, and have been relying on minor-league depth such as Kai-Wei Teng (9.82 ERA) and Nick Avila (7.04 ERA), who have both struggled in their major league debut seasons.
The Rangers have an eye-watering 4 relievers who have been used multiple times, and have an ERA over 10: Grant Anderson (18.00 ERA), Brock Burke (15.00 ERA), Austin Pruitt (12.46 ERA), and Yerry Rodriguez (10.50 ERA).
Their closer, Jose Leclerc, in 9 innings, has already allowed 8 earned runs, 8 hits, and 9 walks. He already has 2 recorded losses this season.
Padres’ Defense Slightly Weak, but they should be fine: The Padres, as stated above, have not been one of the stronger defensive teams in baseball.
Uncharacteristic defensive struggles from Gold-Glover Ha-Seong Kim have not helped this issue, but his strong track record defensively should allow for some patience with the glove. He has still been the Padres’ best defender this season (2.2 defensive wins above replacement). Tyler Wade has been a negative defender at third base (-0.7 WAR), but with Manny Machado returning to the hot corner at some point this season, that issue should be alleviated by Machado’s strong glove. Fernando Tatis Jr, the reigning platinum glove winner, has been inconsistent on defense so far (-0.9 defensive WAR) but he should be fine the rest of the way as he regresses to the mean.
Catcher Luis Campusano’s defense is an issue — especially pitch-framing, however, his strong bat will keep him in the lineup.
The Padres have the 6th-best team OPS at .737, and are tied for fifth in the MLB with 26 team home runs. Their team ERA sits at 3.91, which is 11th in baseball. They will be without Yu Darvish until May most likely, but have sufficient depth to compensate. Their bullpen ERA sits at 3.94, just outside the top-10 league-wide. The rotation and the bullpen are interchangeable for which issue needs to be addressed first, but the Padres should be a competitive team with their effective offense and solid pitching.
Then, the Diamondbacks, who have no truly glaring issues:
The Diamondbacks have displayed more positive signs, which should ultimately indicate a better record moving forward. Even though they are below .500, they have a +26 run differential, the fifth-best mark in the league.
Their offense sits at 9th in baseball with a .732 team OPS. They lead the league with 131 runs scored, 121 runs batted in, and are 10th in the league in home runs. Their offense has been fantastic, even with superstar Corbin Carroll off to a slow start (.216/.330/.273 slash line).
If there was a weak spot to point out, it would be their pitching. Starters Brandon Pfaadt (5.32 ERA) and Tommy Henry (6.87 ERA) have been hit hard, but they should ultimately settle after both showed flashes of being effective last year.
Overall, their team ERA sits at 3.96, but that will likely improve with free agent acquisitions Jordan Montgomery getting settled, and Eduardo Rodriguez returning. Their bullpen ERA is at 3.99, but they will likely get All-Star closer Paul Sewald back in the upcoming weeks.
