Can the Reds Hold On?
Courtesy of the Dayton Daily News
The Cincinnati Reds may just be the breakout team of the season. They have come into the second half of the season at 50-41, sitting atop the National League (NL) Central division. They didn’t necessarily end the first half as they wanted, taking only 1-3 in a series with the Milwaukee Brewers, so they now only have a 1 game lead. Luckily for the Reds, they have another 3 game set with the Brewers at Great American Ballpark, so their luck could change. However, with a team largely full of rookies, and some lackluster pitching, the Reds may not have what it takes to sustain this success, or do they?
The way the Reds have been winning games has been due to their offense. They have the sixth best batting average in the NL at .257, the second highest on-base percentage in the NL at .337, the sixth best slugging percentage at .416, and tied for third best OPS at .754; these numbers are all the best in the NL Central division. Also, the Reds have the most stolen bases in all of baseball at 112. They also have a strong defense with the fourth best fielding percentage at .987. The strong performances from all their rookies, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, Matt McLain, among many others, have really helped them succeed, and it is difficult to not talk about their success without Elly de la Cruz, who seems to have been a catalyst with this Reds team. And even the veterans have been performing well, Jonathan India has been having a lot of success, as is Joey Votto.
But the same cannot be said about the pitching. The Reds have the second worst ERA in the NL amongst their pitching staff at 4.87. Their pitching staff is also similarly young, with many of them having just been brought up. Their two stronger starting pitchers, Hunter Greene and Ben Lively, have been plagued with injury problems. Lively just got off the 15-day injured list with a pectoral strain and in his start against the Brewers, he did get the loss, but went 5 ⅔ innings with 4 hits and only one earned run. Greene is not expected to return to the Reds until after the trade deadline at some point in August. They have a midtier bullpen, but still the best in the division, with an ERA at 3.86. The key to their bullpen success has been with Alexis Diaz, who has a 2.03 ERA with 26 saves, and only 1 blown save.
With a team’s success that is heavily dependent on offense, there is usually a down period, especially with rookies, as their struggles are bound to come. The only hope for the Reds is that their players don’t struggle at the same time and that their pitching is able to hold on. The remaining schedule before the trade deadline is a difficult one: Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Brewers again, then the Los Angeles Dodgers. These are all teams with records above .500 and have been having success all season. The Reds have been able to prove themselves against these types of teams before, but especially if they want to show ownership that they do need to buy at the deadline, they need to win this stretch, and cement their spot in first.
Even if they do this at the trade deadline, the Reds also have the difficulty of history. The Reds organization have historically never been eager to buy, deciding to bank on the players that they already have rather than trade away future prospects. For the sake of this season, the Reds need to be able to buy starting pitching with the options that are available, because it is difficult to depend solely on the offensive productions of rookies, and if they do, they may not be able to make it into October, or at least far into October.
