Forrest Whitley: Houston’s Forgotten Pitching Prospect
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The Houston Astros have seen their pitching prospects flourish on the big stage over the past few years. Pitcher Hunter Brown was called up at the tail-end of the 2022 MLB season and thrived, giving Houston quality relief appearances in the team's ALDS and ALCS victories against the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. Brown has earned his spot in the rotation this year, pitching to a solid 6-3 record with a 3.35 ERA, becoming a strong candidate for American League Rookie of the Year. Alongside Brown resides another prospect for the Astros in J.P. France. After injuries to veterans Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr, France earned the call-up to the big leagues and has pitched to a respectable 2-1 record and 3.54 ERA.
With the future of the Astros rotation looking to be safe in the hands of France and Brown, fans shouldn't overlook the Astros' original top pitching prospect. A flamethrowing, towering 6'7" pitcher named Forrest Whitley was once hailed to become the next ace of the Astros dynasty but has had a rocky start that has still not seen him make the active roster in the big leagues. Whitley's career has been rough so far and shrouded with injuries and controversy, but the potential is still there for a breakout into the MLB this season.
Coming out of high school, Forrest Whitley was a highly touted prospect in the 2016 MLB draft. While he was committed to Florida State University, Whitley signed with the Astros organization after being drafted 17th overall by the team. Whitley possessed a game-changing pitch mix that consisted of a blistering high 90s fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, and his put-away pitch, his deadly changeup. The hype continued to build after Whitley's 2017 season in the minor leagues.
Photo by Karen Warren | Houston Chronicle
Whitley started his 2017 season with the Quad Cities River Bandits at the Single-A level and showed dominant numbers. While unfortunately having a negative record, he struck out 67 batters in only 12 appearances for the team, with two of those being in relief. He was eventually promoted to the Astros' High-A affiliate Buies Creek Astros (now known as the Fayetteville Woodpeckers) after posting a 2-3 record, 2.91 ERA, 67 strikeouts, and an astounding 13.0 K/9 rate. Whitley's dominance continued at the High-A level, as he struck out 50 batters in only seven appearances and was immediately promoted to the Double-A team. His numbers improved, posting a 3-1 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 14.4 K/9 rate. He ended the 2017 season playing in Double-A for the Corpus Christi Hooks, posting a 1.84 ERA and a 16.0 K/9 rate in only 4 appearances for the club. Following the end of the season, Whitley was the fifth-ranked prospect in the Astros' farm system, a high ranking for a 19-year-old.
The buzz surrounding Whitley after his meteoric rise up the minor league levels died down quickly as he found himself at the center of a drug usage controversy. At the start of the 2018 season, he was suspended 50 games for an undisclosed drug violation. While Whitley claimed the drug was an unknown stimulant to keep him awake for a long road trip, his 2018 season in the minors was still cut short. Whitley regressed after returning from the suspension, appearing in only eight games for Corpus Christi and recording a 0-2 record with a 3.76 ERA. His K/9 rate dropped significantly at the Double-A level, dropping by four to an 11.6 K/9 at the end of the 2018 season. His potential at such a young age led to him being ranked as the number one prospect in the Houston organization, even ahead of future all-star Kyle Tucker.
Whitley's 2019 was his worst year yet, starting the season with the Astros' Triple-A affiliate at the time, the Round Rock Express. His control issues increased in Triple-A, posting an abysmal 2.05 WHIP in eight appearances, which led to his demotion back to Double-A. Whitley's walk rates increased, and the control issues became such a problem for the young pitching prospect that he ended the season in the Rookie league, the lowest tier of minor league baseball.
Photo by Charlie Blalock | Corpus Christi Hooks
Despite these control issues, Whitley continued to rank toward the top of the Astros' farm system until he suffered a devastating arm injury at the beginning of 2020. While throwing live batting practice, Whitley suffered an injury that would require him to have Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for two full seasons.
Whitley wouldn't see the field until the 2022 season when he began a rehab start at the Florida Complex League. He eventually worked his way back to the Triple-A level but pitched poorly. His BB/9 (walks per nine-innings) rate was almost seven and his control issues seemed to follow him throughout the season. His lowered strikeout rate and awful pitch control led him to remain in the minors for the 2022 season. Whitley's regression plummeted him down the prospect rankings, finishing the season as the tenth-ranked prospect in the Astros' farm system at the end of the 2022 season. While his pitch velocities remained sky-high, the control issues proved too large to sustain the number-one prospect ranking he held for numerous years.
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Whitley started the 2023 season in Triple-A, and has made eight appearances so far, but has landed on the injured list again following a lat strain. His numbers were mediocre at best, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.70 ERA and 5.1 BB/9 rate. The Astros recently estimated Whitley's injury to sideline the pitcher for about four months. Since his suspension in 2018, Whitley has only pitched 156 innings in five years due to his constant injury problems. The talent is still there, as Whitley's strikeout rates still prove that he can be a pitcher at the major-league level, but the consistent production and ability to stay on the field have not been there for the young flamethrower.
While Whitley's MLB debut seems far away as his injuries and struggles continue, Astros fans should try to remain optimistic. MLB writers believe Whitley's arrival to the big leagues could be this year. His skill set and potential remain sky-high, and his filthy pitch arsenal would translate well into today's game. If called up, the young prospect still has plenty of time to blossom into a star pitcher for the Astros, as he is only 25. Fans and the Astros organization can only hope that Forrest Whitley breaks out into the majors and shows why he was once regarded as a top prospect in the league.
