Why Re-Signing Jake Guentzel Needs to Be The Top Priority For Kyle Dubas
Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo
PITTSBURGH - When Kyle Dubas replaced Ron Hextall and Brian Burke earlier this summer, he was given the similar, nearly impossible task his predecessors failed to fulfill. At his introductory press conference in the Lexus Club at PPG Paints Arena, with Fenway Sports Group (FSG) ownership at his side, he promised a “two-pronged approach.” This approach promised to build a team that could compete for a Stanley Cup during these final few seasons of the big three’s careers: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang.
It also promised that the team would attempt to build a foundation of youth, prepared to take over when those three decide to hang up their skates, to have a smooth transition of generations without skipping a beat. Although FSG may be new to Pittsburgh hockey, they know their stuff. They’re more than aware of what can happen to hockey in this city if the team becomes uncompetitive and irrelevant. Therefore, they and the fanbase have trusted Kyle Dubas to lead that transition. They’re much more comfortable with him steering the ship during that storm than with the Hextall/Burke duo.
We’re nearly two months into the Kyle Dubas era in Pittsburgh, and so far the consensus is positive. Granted, the team hasn’t hit the ice yet, and there still are issues the team had last season that haven’t been addressed yet (depth scoring), but overall, Penguins fans are more confident in the current roster than any roster Hextall put together. The Erik Karlsson situation, and Dubas’ philosophy of always pursuing elite talent when it becomes available on the market, have created a sense of excitement around this team again. Penguins fans are used to their team making huge splashes and flashy moves, and Dubas seems poised to continue that tradition, filling the void that has gone unfilled since Jim Rutherford stepped down.
Arguably, the most important move Dubas needs to make is not going to be a huge splash or an acquisition at all for that matter. In the next eleven months, Kyle Dubas’ biggest priority must be to re-sign LW Jake Guentzel. Jake Guentzel is currently in the fifth and final year of his contract, making $6 million annually.
For starters, Guentzel is an elite player. Both analytics and basic scoring statistics show how great Guentzel is. He has scored 30+ goals in three of his six-and-one-half seasons in the NHL and 40 goals in two separate seasons. Two seasons where he didn’t pass either of those thresholds were Covid-19 interrupted seasons. However, he was on pace to score 30+ goals in both years had they been full 82-game seasons.
In those three seasons with 30+ goals, he also scored 70+ points. He is better known for his finishing ability and seen more as a sniper, but Guentzel absolutely has playmaking ability. Some people downplay Guentzel’s greatness by attributing his success to playing alongside C Sidney Crosby for the entirety of his NHL career, but his micro-analytics prove that he is a play-driver in his own right.
At the start of this season, JFreshHockey, a hockey analytics writer, had Guentzel better than 97 percent of players in the NHL based on his offensive play, including his play creation and finishing ability. The numbers are based on individual contribution, meaning playing with Crosby doesn’t impact those numbers. Guentzel ranked toward the bottom of the rankings for his defensive play, but he was never wrongfully accused of being the best two-way forward.
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
While the Penguins haven’t had much playoff success in recent years, the team had two deeper runs during his first two seasons, including the 2017 Stanley Cup run during his rookie campaign, and Guentzel was outstanding. During that year and the year following, Guentzel played 37 playoff games and put up a combined 23 goals and 42 points. His performance in his rookie season tied him with F Dino Ciccarelli with the most points in a single playoff run by a rookie with 21. Guentzel ended one goal shy of tying Ciccarelli with fourteen goals for the record in that category.
More recently, in the first-round loss to the New York Rangers in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Guentzel put up an eight-goal, ten-point series in seven games. When the team needed their scorers to play above expectation to stay in the series while they played with a third-string goalie behind them, Guentzel came through. Looking around the league, not every team’s top forwards can elevate their game when the pressure is on. Guentzel has continually exceeded expectations in the biggest moments.
Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo
Guentzel is also, by far, the best winger Crosby has consistently played alongside in his career. While being the best player in this generation, Crosby has had some incredible wingers on his team’s roster, including Phil Kessel, James Neal, Marian Hossa, Jarome Iginla, and many more. For some reason, those guys never really worked for Crosby. For years, he would play with less talented wingers whom he felt more comfortable with. Since Guentzel broke into the league, he has been alongside Crosby. No winger has put up the kinds of numbers playing with Crosby that Guentzel has, and it’s imperative to keep him there so the team can get the best out of Crosby during his final years.
Re-signing Guentzel makes sense because it follows Dubas’ two-pronged approach. Guentzel is 28 and will be 29 once the puck drops in the new season. His numbers show no signs of decline, and he realistically still has a lot of hockey left in him. When the team's core retires in three-to-four years, Guentzel will still be in his prime. If Dubas is serious about keeping this team competitive and entertaining during the transitional period, Jake Guentzel should be a part of that.
As I mentioned, Guentzel’s analytics show that he alone can drive play, so there’s no reason to think he will necessarily slow down following Crosby's retirement. His pure offensive production may improve if he is the main guy controlling the puck on the top line and the top power-play unit. I thoroughly believe that Guentzel could easily bridge the generational gap with the Penguins and be a contributing force once they’re on their way back up.
It’s unknown right now to what extent Guentzel’s camp and Dubas have discussed an extension. The closest comparable to Guentzel in terms of age, play style, and production, who signed a contract this offseason, is F Alex DeBrincat. DeBrincat was dealt to the Detroit Red Wings from the Ottawa Senators and immediately signed a four-year deal worth just below $8 million annually. DeBrincat is three years younger than Guentzel but has played just three fewer NHL games than him. DeBrincat also was dealt to his childhood team, which may have leaned in favor of the Red Wings during contract negotiations. DeBrincat was also a restricted free agent, while Guentzel will be an unrestricted free agent when his contract expires next July 1. I think a salary of around $8 million is likely for Guentzel and would probably be below market value for the Penguins.
I don’t see a scenario where Guentzel could feasibly ask Dubas for more money than Crosby, $8.7 million. On the open market, with the level of production he’s given the Penguins, he could likely get north of $9 million. I believe this even more so now that rumors have circulated that Toronto Maple Leafs F William Nylander is asking for $10 million on his next deal, which also expires next July 1. Nylander is one year younger than Guentzel but has less point and goal production than his American counterpart.
Overall, I do think Guentzel will be re-signed by the Penguins. It would benefit the team to get a deal closed this offseason so the situation doesn’t bleed into the season and become a distraction. Realistically, Guentzel could chase the most money next offseason if he wanted to and sign with a team with less talent to become their main guy.
However, I think his best bet is staying in Pittsburgh, where he can chase another Stanley Cup with a desperate group of future Hall-of-Famers, and then become the go-to guy for the team following their careers coming to a close, in hopes of building another elite team towards the end of his career, where he could end it the way he began it.
