Stanley Cup Final Preview and Prediction
Photo Credit: Perry Nelson/USA Today Sports
The Stanley Cup Final is set, and we're in for a treat. The Florida Panthers are coming out of the Eastern Conference for the second year in a row. The Panthers dominated the regular season, finishing first in the Atlantic Division with a 52-24-6 record adding up to 110 points. However, their path to the final was not easy as they had to go through arguably three of the top five goalies in the NHL: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman, and Igor Shesterkin. The pesky Panthers made quick work of their in-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round in five games. The second round featured a physical and pesky series between the Boston Bruins, but they got the job done in six games at the Garden. Lastly, in the conference finals, they dominated the New York Rangers and finished the job in six games to get where they are now.
This time, Head Coach Paul Maurice was not going to let Captain Aleksander Barkov touch the Prince of Wales Trophy as they did last year and ended up losing to the Las Vegas Golden Knights in the final.
Now onto the Edmonton Oilers route to the Stanley Cup Final, which is a fascinating one, to say the least. The Oilers started the season 3-9-1 in their first 13 games of the year. After losing to the last-place San Jose Sharks, they fired head coach Jay Woodcroft and hired Kris Knoblauch. This move transformed the Oilers into a completely new team, as after this hire, the Oilers went a league-best 48-18-5 record while going on a 16-game win streak during the regular season. The Oilers came into the playoffs red-hot with the league's best duo, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, on a mission after years of playoff failure. In the first round, the Oilers beat the Los Angeles Kings in five games, beating them for the last three years in the postseason. The second round was the Oilers’ biggest test against a young Vancouver Canucks team. Down in the series by 3 games to 2, the Oilers would win game 6 at home and won game 7 on the road in Vancouver, advancing to the Western Conference Final to face the number-one-seeded Dallas Stars. The story of this series was the resurgence of Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner, who posted a 1.91 goals against average and a save percentage of .922 to help lead the Oilers to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2006. The sight in Edmonton was electric after beating the Stars in six games, as they now have the chance to be the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993.
The best player in the world has a chance to lift his first Stanley Cup over his head, but it's not going to be easy as this Panthers team is different from the last finals, as they are now healthier and have the experience that the Oilers don’t have.
The first line and second line get you into the playoffs, but it's the third and fourth line that win in the playoffs, and the Panthers exemplify this to a tee. 3rd-line center Anton Lundell has 3 goals and 9 assists so far in these playoffs. They also have solid veteran pieces in their bottom six, with Vladimir Tarasenko and Kyle Okposo. From top to bottom, the entire forward group is hard on pucks, hard on the forecheck, and by far the most physical in the playoffs. It would be foolish not to mention the star power of the Panthers with Matthew Tkachuk, 50-goal scorer Sam Reinhart, and the complete 200-foot player Aleksander Barkov, who has shut down superstar players in playoffs.
Barkov will have his hands full against McDavid, but if he can just contain him, I love the Panther's odds.
My x-factor for the Panthers is defenseman Gustav Forsling, who has been a horse on the blue line for the Panthers averaging 23:18 minutes of ice time in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Forsling was picked up on waivers and is now the number one D-man for the Panthers. He is playing the best hockey of his career at the perfect time.
In net, I'm favoring the veteran goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who had a great regular season and carried that into the playoffs. In these playoffs, Bobrovsky has a 12-5-0 record in 17 games with a goals-against average of 2.20 and a save percentage of .908. Although Skinner is just coming off the best series of his life, I just like Bobrovsky's experience, and I trust him more.
For the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup, their best players need to be their best players, and so far that has been the case in the postseason. Yes, we can talk about McDavid and Draisaitl, but Evan Bouchard is establishing himself as a top-10 defenseman with his play in the playoffs. He has a chance to become the fourth defenseman in NHL history to get 30 or more points in a single postseason.
Along with that, the Oilers have the better special teams coming into this series. The Oilers' power play is operating at 37.7 percent, which is first in the playoffs and has helped them win multiple rounds to get where they are now.
Though no one saw the Oilers penalty kill as being one of the lead stories of their playoff run, the Oilers have killed 28 straight penalties heading into the final and currently have a playoff-best 93.9 percent penalty kill, and right behind them are the Panthers with an 88.2 percent penalty kill unit.
Knoblauch has been able to press all the right buttons to help his team succeed, most notably separating McDavid and Draisaitl and having Draisaitl drive his line with veteran forward Corey Perry and Ryan McLeod.
My x-factor for the Oilers is defenseman Darnell Nurse, who was tormented by the Edmonton media leading up to game 4, and after that, he played the best hockey of the playoffs, which was a big reason why the Oilers were able to rattle off three straight wins against the Stars.
Prediction time:
I have the Panthers bouncing back from last year and winning the Stanley Cup on the road in Game 6 in Edmonton. I think the Panthers's aggressive and tormenting play style is too much for the Oilers to handle.
Conn Smythe winner: Aleksander Barkov.
The final will begin Saturday night in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, at 8 p.m. ET.
Photo Credit: NHL X account