Four Teams Most Likely to Miss the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs After Making it Last Season
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PITTSBURGH - In my last article, I predicted the four teams I expect to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs this upcoming season that missed out last season. Last I checked, the National Hockey League doesn’t have plans to expand their playoffs beyond sixteen teams (yet), so four teams will have to lose their playoff spots for four new teams to take over.
That’s what this article is for! Here are my predictions for the four teams who made it last season, who I could see missing out due to transactions this offseason that worsened their team, overall regression, or other reasons. I picked three new Eastern Conference teams to make it and one new Western Conference team, so in the interest of continuity, I will remove the correct amount of teams from each conference.
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Winnipeg Jets
The first and only Western Conference team on this list is the team that hails from Manitoba, Canada. The Jets were the only Western Conference team to make the playoffs last season with less than 100 points (95). They finished just two points ahead of the team I expect to take their spot, the Calgary Flames.
The Jets have had an interesting offseason. It has been eventful, even though we expected more from them. On June 30, the Jets bought out their longtime captain and longest-tenured player, F Blake Wheeler. Five days later, the long-anticipated C Pierre-Luc Dubois trade was finalized, sending him to the Los Angeles Kings. The Jets got great value for Dubois, who was expected to walk away in free agency next offseason, regardless.
In that deal, the Jets acquired F Alex Iafallo, F Gabriel Vilardi, F Rasmus Kupari, and a 2024 second-round pick. All three players are expected to be in the opening night lineup for Winnipeg. That said, Dubois, along with Wheeler, had elite-level skill when he was playing at his best. Neither Iafallo, Vilardi, nor Kupari have shown that at the NHL level yet. The team also brought back F Vladislav Namestnikov on the first day of free agency.
The team got deeper up front, no question. However, they lost a lot of elite-level talent on forward. We anticipated, and still await, a possible C Mark Scheifele trade, which would further deplete their elite offensive skill. There were even rumblings this offseason that former Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck would be dealt. All of their elite talent wants out, which is a tough position for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff to be in.
On top of that, their best defenseman, Josh Morrissey, had a career year last season. He finished fifth in Norris Trophy voting. Odds are he experiences some level of regression from that incredible season he had last year. He’ll still be their best defender and put up points, but opponents are more aware of him now following this breakout season and will look to expose some of his weaknesses.
With the team losing top-end players and the Flames getting more comfortable in their new system, I expect the Jets to miss out on playoff hockey next season, with Calgary taking their spot.
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New York Islanders
Every year, I’m never high on the Islanders roster and I always get proven wrong. So, I’m ready for this to become a bad take. That said, I still don’t like the Islanders roster. It’s built to win in April and May, but I’m not convinced they’ll even make it there.
They were the top wild-card team in the East this year, beating out the Panthers by one point. Defensively and in goal, I have no qualms with the team. They recently locked up G Ilya Sorokin for eight more seasons following this one. He’s a top-five goaltender in the league, so as long as he stays healthy, the Isles are secure in that position for a long time. They’ve always been a more defensively-minded team, and their D-core is very good at locking down opposing offenses. They tied the Toronto Maple Leafs with the fifth least amount of goals allowed in the regular season.
The Islanders' problem has always been scoring goals. Amongst playoff teams, the Islanders were last in goal scoring this past regular season and tenth last amongst the entire league. They acquired C Bo Horvat midseason to help in that department, but Horvat’s goal production nosedived following his arrival to Long Island.
The only departure of note from their lineup is F Josh Bailey. The longtime Isle was sent to Chicago and subsequently bought out. He has yet to find a new home.
If Horvat can regain the scoring touch that he had in the first half of the season with Vancouver, I will be much more confident in this team. I still think they are one or two scorers away from ridding themselves of that reputation. F Vladimir Tarasenko was available up until this past week when he signed in Ottawa. I think he would’ve been a great fit for them if they had the cap space to make that work (they didn’t).
With high-flying, offensive teams on the up like the Buffalo Sabres, I have a hard time seeing the Islanders making the postseason and Buffalo missing out this upcoming season. Although, a battle of Long Island and Western New York in the standings as the regular season comes to a close would be very entertaining.
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Florida Panthers
After seeing the performance from the Panthers we saw all postseason long leading up to the Finals, it’s difficult to say that Florida won’t be back. It would be really good for the hockey community in South Florida if the Panthers could run it back, but after their moves made this offseason, I just don’t see it.
Florida finished just one point ahead of the Penguins and Sabres to claim the final wild-card spot in the East. Going into the playoffs, they had the worst record amongst all qualifying teams and faced an uphill battle with the greatest regular season team in NHL history in round one. Their run to the Finals is one that won't be forgotten, that’s for sure.
For starters, it looks as though their two best defenders, Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour will miss the first half of the regular season, recovering from injuries sustained during their playoff run. Aside from that, the core of the team is still there. However, they lost depth on forward and defense.
First, they lost F Anthony Duclair to the Sharks in exchange for F Steven Lorentz, a much less productive player on offense. They have a new look to their defense, which I’m not convinced is much better than the group that helped them reach the Finals last season. Out with D Radko Gudas and D Marc Staal and in with D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Mike Reilly, and D Niko Mikkola. The defensive core is deeper to cover the losses of Ekblad and Montour to start the season, but Gudas and Staal played significant roles in the playoffs. Florida likely doesn’t get as far as they did without the unique skillset of Gudas in their lineup.
Compared to last season’s roster, four of the team’s top five defenders based on ice time will not be in the lineup on opening night. That kind of turnover on defense, combined with a goaltender who is one of the streakiest, most inconsistent in league history, does not bode well for the Panthers. For the sake of the franchise and the growth of hockey in that region, I hope the Panthers prove me wrong. I just have a hard time seeing them make it.
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Boston Bruins
I know this is a crazy take to have, but I don’t think it’s as farfetched as it appears at first glance. Unlike the previous three teams listed that snuck into the playoffs, the Bruins were on the entirely opposite end of that spectrum. The Bruins had a playoff spot locked up by March 12. The Bruins actually had the President’s Trophy clinched before the Jets, Islanders, or Panthers had a playoff spot clinched.
They still have a good roster with some elite talent. Reigning Vezina Trophy winner G Linus Ullmark is back, even though I do expect him to regress some, following that anomaly of a season from him last year. I expect Ullmark and Swayman to split the starts closer to 50/50.
While those two will be back in Boston, the Bruins lost a lot of key, impactful players this offseason, headlined by the retirement of captain C Patrice Bergeron. Bergeron was the glue of that team. His absence will be felt all over the ice, as he was a fantastic five-on-five, power play, and shorthanded player.
Along with Bergeron, C David Krejci’s future is uncertain, and it seems like he will likely retire or return to Czechia. The B’s also lost F Tyler Bertuzzi, F Taylor Hall, F Nick Foligno, F Garnet Hathaway, D Dmitry Orlov, and D Connor Clifton. While Bergeron’s subtraction is the most impactful, the team will miss those other players a great deal, as well.
Their opening night first-line center is slated to be either F Pavel Zacha or C Charlie Coyle. Neither of those players has experience on the top line. While Zacha had a breakout season last year, I’m still not confident in him as even a great top-six center. I think both he and Coyle, on most teams, would be great third-line centers. Players have broken out in big ways when given larger roles, like C William Karlsson in Vegas or C Jared McCann in Seattle, so maybe Zacha or Coyle explode offensively. There’s not much evidence from either of them to prove that’ll happen, though.
Their signings this offseason didn’t particularly improve on any of the players who left. The Bruins signed F Morgan Geekie, F James van Riemsdyk, F Patrick Brown, F Jesper Boqvist, and D Kevin Shattenkirk.
From the looks of it, the Bruin's offense has F David Pastrnak, F Brad Marchand, and a bunch of third-liners. But like I said, maybe one or more of those lower-end guys can break out in a larger role. The defense isn’t too much worse than last season, but Orlov was great for them after he was dealt from Washington.
It would likely take a 35-plus-point reduction from last season for the Bruins to miss the playoffs this year. The threshold this season in the East was 92 points, which is pretty low compared to most seasons. If it’s 92 points again, the Bruins would need to lose around twenty more games than they did last season. Stranger things have happened, but that would be quite the task.
As long as the Bruins have Pastrnak, Marchand, D Charlie McAvoy, D Hampus Lindholm, and that elite goaltending tandem, I expect them to at least be competitive. That being said, the sheer amount of subtractions the team made, and the value of those subtractions combined, makes me think their spot in the playoffs next season is in jeopardy. They far exceeded expectations this past season and will be without many of the players who helped make it happen. Regressing to the mean for them likely is a large drop in wins and points.
This was an article that is a lot harder to make than the previous one where I predicted which teams would make it, because this one is a lot more pessimistic and fans get very defensive of their teams. I’m ready to be proven wrong. Honestly, I’m just ready to watch and cover some actual hockey.
