PITTSBURGH - Last week, I wrote an article about the potential of an Erik Karlsson trade, and why it makes sense for the Penguins. That was over ten days ago, and the temperature surrounding the Karlsson situation has changed a bit. Let’s catch up on the latest regarding this potential move.

Since I last wrote about it, no Karlsson move has happened. Not many moves at all have happened since that time, actually. There seems to be a backlog of moves that need to happen around the league, that are waiting for the Karlsson deal to take place first. This is even more true for the two remaining teams reported to be left in the Karlsson sweepstakes: the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes.

One of the caveats to a Karlsson-to-Carolina deal that didn’t make sense to me is the Brent Burns of it all. When I say that, I’m referencing how Burns and Karlsson, both offensive, right-handed defenders who thrive when they have the puck on their stick, simply could not coexist in the same lineup when they were both in San Jose. Following their split last off-season, both had great seasons on their separate teams. They had the ability to quarterback the power plays of their respective teams, and both produced numbers they hadn’t seen since they were on their own teams prior to the trade that sent Karlsson to San Jose from Ottawa in 2018.

There have been rumblings since, however, that Burns may be a part of the package sent back to San Jose in a potential trade for Karlsson. It makes sense, as Burns loved being a Shark, and Sharks fans loved Burns. Carolina would need to move a large contract to make the trade possible, and Burns would help make it work, although more money would likely need to be moved, as well.

The other thing that has shifted the odds for Carolina since my last article is the Tony DeAngelo situation. All signs pointed to DeAngelo returning to Carolina in a trade from the Flyers, following the one-year anniversary of his trade that sent him to Philadelphia originally. The teams needed to wait until the one-year mark since there would have been retained salary involved, and the NHL would not allow it. However, the deal must’ve unraveled in the waiting period, as DeAngelo was bought out of his contract by the Flyers on Friday, making him an unrestricted free agent and the first player bought out twice.

Tony DeAngelo is another player similar to Karlsson in style. Although he does not have the pedigree of Karlsson, he is also a right-handed defender better known for his offensive skills than his play in his defensive zone. DeAngelo has the ability to quarterback a power play but isn’t nearly as skilled as either Burns or Karlsson. With that said, a lineup with Karlsson, Burns, and DeAngelo on the right side of their three defensive pairings is redundant. Since that trade fell through, maybe Karlsson is back on the table for Carolina.

For the Penguins, not much has changed. Reports have come out in the past week saying Kyle Dubas was very close to finalizing a deal for Karlsson on July 1, the start date of free agency, but was unable to close the deal. Although that certainly doesn’t close the door on a Karlsson deal for Dubas and the Penguins, it definitely lowers the likelihood of this deal. July 1 would’ve been the easiest day to complete the trade. The team wouldn’t have completed their plethora of free agent signings yet, clearing the way to make the financials of a deal work immediately.

With that said, other than minor depth signings, no changes have been made to the Penguins roster since July 1. I believe Dubas is holding off on any other business in favor of seeing how the Karlsson situation goes. If the Penguins acquire Karlsson and don’t have to give up all of their young assets/draft picks and can get Karlsson at a lower cap hit, maybe it will have been worth the wait. But, Dubas risks missing out on other potential targets in the pursuit of Karlsson.

If we go back to the summer of 2018, Kyle Dubas was hired on May 11 as the full-time general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It took him all of 51 days to make a big splash and put his stamp on the team by signing C John Tavares when free agency opened up on July 1, 2018. Fenway Sports Group hired Dubas to run the Penguins' hockey operations on June 1, 2023. 51 days from then is this upcoming Saturday, July 22. Dubas likes putting his mark on a team in his first offseason with a team in a major way, does he do it again with this deal?

At the moment, that is where we stand with a potential Erik Karlsson trade. Carolina seems to have slowly been put into a better position to acquire him over the last week, while Pittsburgh seems to be playing the waiting game. More teams could potentially join the arms race, but right now, it’s down to these two Metropolitan division franchises. Who will be the first to take the Sharks’ bait?