Analyzing Kyle Dubas’ First Penguins Draft Pick, Brayden Yager

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PITTSBURGH - The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is officially complete. Fans were promised an exciting two days of player transactions, but all-in-all, this year’s draft was fairly uneventful. A few picks were slight surprises, like the Anaheim Ducks passing on C Adam Fantilli in favor of C Leo Carlsson, or the Arizona Coyotes reaching on both of their first round picks, but no big trades took place that we were anticipating. There were rumblings of big name goalies being moved, F Alex DeBrincat being moved, but all to no avail.

The biggest deal to happen on Wednesday, the day of the first round, was Kyle Dubas acquiring F Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights for a 2024 third-round pick. Many, including myself, expected Dubas to be busy on the draft floor, anticipating a trade to move back his first-round pick in the draft and accumulate more assets. His past history of doing this so often with the Maple Leafs made it seem likely, but Dubas decided to keep the team’s first-round pick.

With that pick, 14th overall, Dubas and his staff selected center Brayden Yager from the Moose Jaw Warriors of the Western Hockey League. Yager, 18, stands 6’0” and weighs 170 lbs, with room to grow. The right-handed center has played parts of three seasons with Moose Jaw. This past season, Yager scored 28 goals and 78 points in 67 games. He increased his point production rate in the WHL playoffs, scoring 16 points in just 10 games, before being eliminated by the Saskatoon Blades in game seven of the second round. Only Connor Bedard had a better playoff point production rate than Yager in the WHL.

Earlier in the year, NHL Central Scouting had Yager as their fifth-highest ranked North American skater. In their final rankings, Yager dropped all the way to eleventh. I personally attribute this to so many high-end forwards, especially centers, proving themselves to be potentially franchise altering players through the last few months of their junior hockey seasons, Detroit Red Wings draft pick C Nate Danielson as an example. He had risen up the rankings throughout the year, as Yager steadily dropped down a few spots.

The consensus on Yager is that he has top-six forward potential and could potentially replace one of Crosby or Malkin as a top-six center in a few years down the road. There is some debate on whether he will actually be a full-time center at the NHL level, however. Some see him moving to the wing once he turns professional, like many forwards do. His skills that make him such a special player are his speed and his shot.

He possesses an incredibly powerful and accurate shot, especially for someone his size. His feet move very fast, and allow him to create separation and blow past opposing defenses, creating breakaway situations. Whether he’s blazing through defenses or stationary, his shot carries the same velocity and accuracy. That is a unique attribute that will set him apart from others once he touches the ice in the NHL.

There were a lot of options available at 14th overall for Dubas and his staff. I believe if F Zach Benson had not been picked at 13th overall to the Buffalo Sabres, that the Penguins would’ve selected him instead of Yager. On the board remaining for the Penguins besides Yager were F Matthew Wood, D Axel Sandin-Pellikka, F Colby Barlow, C Oliver Moore, F Eduard Sale, F Gabe Perrault, among others.

The way I see it, Zach Benson would’ve been a higher-ceiling player than Yager, but the rest of those players remaining are all fairly equal in terms of their ceilings. Pittsburgh picked a defenseman last year with their first-round pick in Owen Pickering, and had no clearcut top forward prospect in the system prior to this pick. The organization seemed to have an affinity for Yager for some time, as they took him out to dinner following the NHL Scouting Combine earlier this offseason, so it makes sense why they feel so confident in their selection here.

Yager was all smiles after being chosen by Pittsburgh. In every picture and video I’ve seen of him following the selection, he has a huge grin on his face. In every interview, he mentioned how much he idolized Sidney Crosby growing up, like many of his 2023 NHL Draft counterparts. It seems like he is very happy to be a Penguin, which bodes well for his future with the team.