2023 NHL 1st Round Mock Draft: Top-16 Picks

PITTSBURGH - In just about two weeks in Nashville, lives and franchises will change forever. The first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will take place on Wednesday, June 28 in Bridgestone Arena. One of the highest touted prospects in league history will put a Chicago Blackhawks sweater overtop of his dress shirt to start off the draft.

Connor Bedard’s fate was sealed on May 8, when the lottery balls fell in favor of the team with the third-worst record this past regular season. He has been the top prospect in this draft class for years now, and the wait will finally be over for him on that day.

What happens after Bedard steps off the stage is where the draft gets more interesting. I’m going to project where I think the top prospects will fall, in this, one of the deepest draft classes in recent memory.

1st: CHI- C Connor Bedard (WHL)

Like I said, this is a shoo-in. Bedard will be a Chicago Blackhawk and the franchise will be forever changed. They will transition from the Toews/Kane era, to the Bedard era with much dismay from the other 31 fanbases.

2nd: ANA- C Adam Fantilli (NCAA)

This is another pick that isn’t as difficult as some people are making it out to be. Adam Fantilli has been the consensus second overall pick all season. He’s a big, dominate center that the Ducks will be more than happy to take. Fantilli is no consolation prize for not winning the Bedard sweepstakes, either. Like Bedard, he puts up huge numbers. He will join an already loaded pool of young players the Ducks have accumulated after years of finishing at the bottom of the league, following the Getzlaf/Perry era of dominance in Southern California.

3rd: CBJ- C Leo Carlsson (SHL)

Another great center will be picked at third overall by the Blue Jackets, and it will be the Swede, Leo Carlsson. Carlsson has played in the professional men’s league in Sweden over the past two seasons, and really broke out this past year. On the international stage, Carlsson really put himself on the map. He had a great showing in the World Junior Championship. His Swedish team would not place for a medal in the tournament, but he solidified himself as a top-three pick. Columbus needs a great, young center in the worst way, and picking Carlsson gives them a potentially elite first-line center of the future.

4th: SJ- C Will Smith (USNTDP)

The string of centers being picked continues with San Jose picking the first American off the board at fourth overall with Will Smith. No, he didn’t smack Chris Rock. Yes, he did score 127 points in 60 games with the US National Development Program this season. He is seen as a phenomenal puckhandler, and will give the Sharks a great, young center of the future, who isn’t too far off from being a full-time NHL player in my eyes. That seems important to San Jose, as General Manager Mike Grier made it known when he was hired that he did not want to wait long for this team to become competitive again. That alone makes me believe that the talented Russian forward Matvei Michkov is not an option for them.

5th: MTL- RW Matvei Michkov (KHL)

Unlike San Jose, Montreal has time to wait. They have one of the deepest prospect pools both up front and on the back-end in the NHL. Michkov is believed to possess a top-two skillset in this draft, just behind Bedard. The reason he falls to fifth, is he is under contract in the KHL until 2026. The Canadiens have time to be patient with their 2023 first round pick. No one has put up comparable numbers to him in Russia since the soon-to-be all-time NHL leading goal scorer, Alex Ovechkin. With comparables like that, it’ll be hard for General Manager Kent Hughes to pass on him.

6th: ARI- D David Reinbacher (NL)

Arizona has a boatload of high-end forward prospects. Most recently, they selected Logan Cooley with their third overall pick last year, followed by Conor Geekie just eight picks later. They don’t have a high-end defensive prospect in their system. They selected Maverik Lamoureaux at the end of the first round last year, but his ceiling isn’t as high as the one needed for any room he’s in (he’s 6’7”). Reinbacher gives them a solid, defensively responsible defender in the pipeline. Arizona isn’t looking to compete any time soon, and that’ll give Reinbacher plenty of time to develop his game.

7th: PHI- LW Ryan Leonard (USNTDP)

With the new administration in Philadelphia, I finally feel confident in them to make the right draft picks. Last year, C Cutter Gauthier was a bit of a reach for them at fifth overall. Leonard is projected at as high as fifth overall on some mock drafts, and seventh is just about the average spot for him. He’s a very talented, American forward with a phenomenal set of hands and shot. He will pair well with Gauthier in the future.

8th: WAS- C Dalibor Dvorsky (AIK)

Part of me thinks Washington could look at dealing this pick, since Ovechkin isn’t getting any younger. However, something tells me they’re going to move towards focusing on the future, more than staying competitive now. Their two best forwards in franchise history are likely on the 18th hole of their careers, so it would behoove Washington to look at future replacements. Dvorsky is a very talented, larger center from Slovakia. He’s projected by many to go in this range, and the Capitals have never been shy on investing in European talent.

9th: DET- LW Zach Benson (WHL)

Many of the significant young pieces in the Red Wings system right now are defenders. Simon Edvinsson and William Wallinder are right at the top of that list. Also towards the top is Marco Kasper, who is a great player. However, I’m not certain he’ll top out as a point-per-game player. Zach Benson is a forward who could potentially score a point-per-game in the NHL, though. Benson led his WHL team in points this season, and will immediately become the best young scoring threat in their organization. The rebuild has taken longer than expected in Detroit, and this kid isn’t far off from being able to help push them over the edge.

10th: STL- D Mikhail Gulyayev (KHL)

A lot of mock drafts I have seen have St. Louis taking one of the many talented young forwards available at this pick. If you look at their prospect pool, they seem pretty set on guys up front. They acquired Zach Dean from Vegas in the Ivan Barbashev trade. They’ve drafted Jimmy Snuggerud, Zachary Bolduc, Jake Neighbours, and are currently riding many young forwards in the NHL who are locked up for many years to come in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Their biggest need is young defenders, and few possess a skillset in this draft quite like Gulyayev. He is the quintessential offensive-defenseman, nothing like anything the Blues have had recently. He’s a great skater and can put up points from the blue-line like few young players can.

11th: VAN- D Tom Willander (SHL)

I see Vancouver as a similar case as St. Louis. They have a lot of young forwards in the pipeline, as well as young forwards actively helping their NHL team. It becomes a lot thinner on the back-end. The last time the Canucks picked a defender in either of the top two rounds was 2018, when they selected Quinn Hughes with their top pick, and Jett Woo with their second round pick. To say they’re thin on the blue line would be an understatement. Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford are not used to making first round picks, however. Also, the Canucks always seem to be in a “buying” or “win-now” mode even when they shouldn’t be, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this pick moved at all.

12th: ARI (From OTT)- RW Matthew Wood (NCAA)

After filling their biggest need with their own first round pick, I see them using the pick they acquired from Ottawa in the Jakob Chychrun trade to pick the best player available and the highest value. At this point, there’s many talented forwards with first-line potential, but I decided on Wood. Based on their past few drafts, it seems as though General Manager Bill Armstrong and his staff value size with skill. Wood fits this mold perfectly. He’s listed as 6’3” and was nearly a point-per-game with the University of Connecticut this past season, as well as nearly two points-per-game average at the U-18 tournament.

13th: BUF- D Axel SandiN Pellikka (SHL)

I think the abundance of high skilled forwards available in this draft kind of dilutes their value, and in turn inflates the value of the few defenders at the top. Buffalo has plenty of young skilled forwards both on the roster and down the pipeline. Sandin Pellikka is a highly skilled offensively-minded defender. Having Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Axel Sandin Pellikka on your defensive unit for the next decade would send shivers down the spines of their Atlantic Division rivals. He’d fit in great on their power play unit, and immediately bring a new dimension to that back-end that they don’t have yet, in his elite playmaking skills at the quarterback position and his ability edge the blue line to create space. I’m not even a Sabres fan, but I can already see him sending clappers to the net and having Tage Thompson muscle in a loose puck for a big goal.

14th: Pit- LW Eduard Sale (Czechia)

Like I’ve said in previous articles, I fully expect Kyle Dubas to do his favorite thing in the world and trade this pick back for extra draft picks. However, if he were to make this pick, I fully expect him to pick the highest player on their draft board and not worry about position whatsoever. The prospect cabinets are as bare as they can be. Sale has an elite skillset as a passer and shooter, and a very high ceiling. He immediately becomes the Penguins top prospect, but honestly most of the options at this pick would be as well.

15th: NSH- C Oliver Moore (NCAA)

Like the Canucks, Nashville hasn’t picked a defender in either of the first two rounds in a long time. For the Predators, it hasn’t happened since 2016. If any of the previously picked defenders were to fall to this pick, I would expect Nashville to be all over them. However, there’s still a lot of high-end forwards available, and Moore is the best one left at this point. Many mock drafts have him in their top-10. Moore has great playmaking ability and can skate with anyone. He scored 75 points in 61 games in the USNTDP this past season, and instantly becomes their best center prospect in a very long time.

16th: CAL- C Nate Danielson (WHL)

Danielson is an interesting case. In this elite crop of forwards, I see him as the most “two-way” out of all of them. While he can put up numbers, his game feels more complete than many of his counterparts. I see him as a 60-70 point center in the NHL, with a great defensive skillset, as well. Snagging Danielson at the 16th pick would be a steal for Calgary in my book.

I look forward to looking back at this on the Thursday following the first round and seeing how wrong I am. The great thing about this draft class, is regardless of who is picked, there are great options all over the place. Without going much further, players who easily could be top-16 picks that I haven’t yet listed include C Brayden Yager, RW Gabriel Perreault, C Otto Stenberg, LW Colby Barlow, LW Andrew Cristall among many others.

If your favorite team has a top-16 pick in this year’s draft, they ought to keep their lottery ticket at developing an elite, productive player to play for their NHL club in the near future.