Pittsburgh Penguins 2023-24 Season Preview
Aaron Doster/USA TODAY Sports
PITTSBURGH - Four months ago, the Pittsburgh Penguins missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since the 2005-06 season. A combination of injuries, mismanagement, and bad luck contributed to the end of the longest streak of playoff appearances in North American professional sports. Now, one eventful summer removed from that, we’re closing in on it being a great day for hockey in Pittsburgh once again.
When I say eventful summer, I mean it. This was probably the busiest summer for the organization in the Crosby era. It started with ownership firing general manager Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke almost immediately following the end of the regular season, April 14. This came after months of “Fire Hextall” chants becoming an almost nightly occurrence at PPG Paints Arena.
Just over a month and a half after, following an extensive search for the club’s next hockey operations leader, Fenway Sports Group finally got their guy. Kyle Dubas, former general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs, was brought on as the president of hockey operations and interim general manager. Dubas promised to do everything in his power to keep the Penguins competitive as long as the team’s core of superstars were still playing, as well as prepare for a smooth transition into the next generation of Penguins hockey, after Crosby, Malkin and Letang hang up their skates.
His first move of significance came just hours before the first round of the 2023 NHL Draft, acquiring F Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. Dubas used the team’s excess cap space to take on a player the Golden Knights needed to be rid of due to financial constraints. Because of the financial situation of Vegas, Dubas was able to pay only a third round pick for the top six forward who was just weeks removed from winning a Stanley Cup.
Later that day, Dubas’ first draft pick for the Penguins was selected. F Brayden Yager, the sought after center from the Western Hockey League, whom won over the Penguins front office during meetings at the NHL Draft Combine, was the selection at 14th overall. There were rumors the week leading up to the draft, including the day of, that Dubas may move the pick for a player, or move back in the first round to accumulate more draft capital. One player connected to the Penguins at that time was D Noah Hanifin of the Calgary Flames. Another was G Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins, the reiging Vezina Trophy winner. The story goes that Boston quickly met with F Oliver Moore at the draft, because they believed there was a deal for them to move into the range he would be available, the middle of the first round. Boston was actively shopping Ullmark for a pick in that range, and the only team who needed a goaltender who was picking there was Pittsburgh. Dubas would hold onto the pick, and make a different decision in net.
Fast forward a few days to the opening of NHL free agency, July 1. The day gets started ironically by Dubas’ former team signing a former Penguin, Ryan Reaves. The day would end up being a busy one for Dubas and the Penguins. Headlining the list of additions was D Ryan Graves, who signed a six year contract worth $4.5 million annually. The biggest decision, however, would be in regards to their goaltending problem. Dubas would forgo acquiring one of the many goaltenders available on both the trade and free agent markets to re-sign Tristan Jarry to a five year contract worth $5.375 million annually. Jarry was fresh off of a season where he was either out due to injury, or playing injured in the most important games of the Penguins season. This would undoubtedly be the most controversial bet Dubas made during free agency.
The day was completed by the team making many depth signings, filling out the bottom of their lineup with better players than they finished the season with. C Lars Eller, F Noel Acciari, F Matt Nieto, and G Alex Nedeljkovic rounded out the signings for day one. During the day, trade rumors spread for reigning Norris Trophy winner D Erik Karlsson of the San Jose Sharks, to a number of possible destinations, including the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dubas was asked about the rumor at his end of day press conference.
“When there’s a player like that who becomes available, especially with a core group (like this), I think it’s incumbent on me to reach out and see if there’s a fit for us. That’s the way I viewed that entire situation.”
Weeks would go by and rumors would continue to swirl. Originally, there were four teams reported to be interested: the Penguins, Carolina Hurricanes, Seattle Kraken and Toronto Maple Leafs. One by one, for whatever reason, the other teams would exit the sweepstakes for the Swedish defenseman. It was down to Carolina and Pittsburgh late into July, until Carolina signed D Tony DeAngelo. At that point, it seemed inevitable that the Karlsson/Pittsburgh marriage would happen.
Early morning on August 6, the wait was over.
He did it. He actually acquired the reigning Norris Trophy winner; the first defensemen in three decades to score 100+ points in a season. Not only did Dubas bring Karlsson onboard, he shipped out nearly all of the bad contracts that Hextall had brought in. It was a true masterclass of a trade, and it sent excitement throughout the fanbase.
Prior to the trade, Dubas made some other depth signings to help bolster the organizational depth charts, including F Andreas Johnsson, F Vinnie Hinostroza, F Radim Zohorna, D Will Butcher and G Magnus Hellberg.
Now we sit, just a few weeks away from the team hitting the ice together for the first time. Up and down the lineup, there are improvements. The team finished just one point shy of the playoffs. This team should make the playoffs next season, right? Well, let’s see exactly how much they’ve improved.
These are the lines from the final game of the regular season against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Slashed out are the players who are no longer with the team.
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Rakell
Heinen-Poehling-Granlund
O’Connor-Carter-Archibald
Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Petry
Joseph-Rutta
Jarry
DeSmith
Five of the twelve forwards are gone. Half of the defenders are gone and one goalie is gone. Nine of the players in the opening night lineup will not have been in the lineup during game 82 of last season. That’s nearly half of the lineup. Below are my projected lines including the additions. Underlined are the additions Dubas has made this offseason. Those with asterisks were in the organization last season, but did not play in the Penguins final game.
Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
R. Smith-Malkin-Rust
Johnsson-Eller-Nylander*
O’Connor-Acciari-Nieto
Pettersson-Karlsson
Graves-Letang
Joseph-T. Smith*
Jarry
Nedeljkovic
To me, that’s a much-improved roster. Last season, the team was seventeenth in the NHL in goals scored at 262 (3.19 G/GP). While I still think the bottom six forward group has room for improvement in this area, there’s no doubt in my mind that the team will score more than they did last season. Karlsson takes over Petry’s slot on defense, while likely getting more ice time than Petry ever would have. Petry, in 61 games last season with Pittsburgh, scored five goals, and 26 assists for 31 points. Karlsson is coming off a season where he scored 25 goals, 76 assists for 101 points. That’s an unbelievable offensive upgrade. Not only will that upgrade help in the overall goals scored department, but it will greatly improve the power play.
Last season, the Penguins had the fourteenth-best power play in the league at 21.72 percent. While I still think the team will have some issues with its second unit, the top power-play unit in Pittsburgh will be lethal. Potentially featuring four future Hall-of-Famers, Karlsson adds such a unique skill set at the quarterback position on the team’s top power-play unit. Letang, who has been in that spot for over a decade, is one of the best at it in his own right. Karlsson, however, is in his own tier. Karlsson will likely go down as the greatest offensive defenseman of this generation. His skating, passing, and shooting ability from that position, make him such a weapon that opposing penalty kills won’t know what to expect, or who to cover. If Karlsson doesn’t shoot it, he’ll have his pick of which future Hall-of-Famer he wants to dish it to. Or, he can skate circles around the penalty-killing unit until they’re too tired to keep up with him, and he can slam home a goal. I have no doubts that Karlsson will help make this team’s power play higher ranking than they were last season.
In terms of goals against, the team ranked eighteenth in the NHL last year with 264 (3.22 GA/GP). During the previous offseason, Ron Hextall decided to put his own, awful stamp on the team’s defense. He traded away Michael Matheson and John Marino while bringing in Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta to replace them. Marino and Matheson were both better and younger than the two replacements brought in. Immediately, the on-ice product suffered from these downgrades. That, along with the sudden falloff of Brian Dumoulin, created the perfect storm of atrocious defense plaguing the Penguins during much of the first half of last regular season.
This season will be different on that end, however. The biggest addition to help the defense was Ryan Graves. Graves has played a defensive role on many great defensive pairings and teams throughout his career, including playing with D Sam Girard with Colorado and D John Marino with New Jersey. While plus/minus isn’t my favorite stat to evaluate individual players, Graves has accumulated an impressive plus 84 in just 302 games played at the NHL level, which proves his play contributes to allowing his team to maintain possession of the puck, and score significantly more than opponents with him on the ice at even strength. Not only Graves, but Pettersson will receive elevated minutes now that Dumoulin is out, and I think he will flourish defensively in that role. He really broke out last season, and his skillset perfectly complements pairing with Karlsson.
The penalty kill was also very average last season, placing sixteenth in the league at 79.09 percent. Graves will help in this department, as well as Pettersson getting more of Dumoulin’s minutes. Up front, the forwards Dubas brought in to help the bottom six will also contribute to a better penalty kill than last season. Eller, Acciari, R. Smith, and Nieto all have experienced killing penalties. I trust that crop of players in penalty-killing situations much more than the group the Penguins iced last year.
The biggest looming question mark over the Penguins this upcoming season is in the net. Not only is Jarry a wild card, but so is his backup. While Casey DeSmith came in and played a lot of games while Jarry recovered, his overall performance wasn’t awful. While there were many games where he would let up a ton of bad goals, his season stats actually were pretty average, and considering he played way more games than what was expected of him, I would say he actually impressed me. DeSmith is now in Montreal, and his replacement comes to Pittsburgh by way of Detroit. Alex Nedeljkovic will likely back up Jarry to start the season. Nedeljkovic is just a few seasons removed from being a Calder Trophy finalist with the Carolina Hurricanes and seeming like the league’s next great, young goaltender. Carolina shipped him to Detroit when his next contract came due, and he had pretty much no success in Motown. The native of Parma, Ohio, just about two hours northwest of Pittsburgh, won just 25 games in 74 appearances with the Red Wings over the past two seasons. He spent the majority of last season with the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins, where his stats did begin to improve.
Jarry himself claims to be 100 percent healthy after signing in Pittsburgh for the next five seasons. The two-time NHL All-Star’s play last season wasn’t the only concern amongst fans when he signed. His ability and availability to play important games have been called into question. In eight career NHL playoff games, Jarry only has two victories. During the Penguin's most recent playoff series in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the New York Rangers, Jarry didn’t become available to the team until the seventh game, where the Rangers would score four on a likely injured Jarry, to eliminate the Penguins. During the end of the regular season this past year, the Penguins were essentially playing playoff games every time they touched the ice. They needed victories in order to stay alive in the playoff race.
The perfect storm of circumstances came ahead on April 11, 2023, when the last place Chicago Blackhawks faced the desperate Penguins at PPG Paints Arena, for game 81 of the season. Jarry remained strong through the first two periods, only allowing one goal. Malkin would even up the score five minutes into the third period, and then Jarry would crumble again. With ten minutes left in the game, with all the pressure building, Jarry would allow two goals within 26 seconds, effectively ending the Penguin's season.
Whether it’s lack of poise, durability, or something else, or everything above, up until this point, Tristan Jarry has not proven that he can be a goaltender to take the Penguins on a playoff run. That being said, I’m totally ok with being proven wrong.
So that’s where we stand with the Penguins right now. They made many improvements this offseason and are pretty much set with their roster, other than potentially signing some professional tryout contracts prior to training camp. Based on all of the changes the team has made, I do expect the Penguins to make the playoffs this season. I think they are one or two bottom-six scoring options and a steadier goaltending situation away from being a deep enough team to contend for the Stanley Cup. Whether Jarry and Nedeljkovic end up working out as a tandem remains to be seen, as does whether Dubas will add more scoring to his offense down the lineup.
That being said, nearly every statistical aspect of the overall team is set to improve with the bets that Dubas made this summer. I have a hard time seeing this team miss the playoffs, given that they only missed by a single point last season, and have since added a reigning Norris Trophy-winning defenseman. There will be a lot of competition in their range of the standings. The Buffalo Sabres are an improved team and many expect them to make the leap into the playoffs. The Ottawa Senators got better and are due to eventually break through into the playoffs. The New York Islanders made it last season and didn’t lose any key pieces who helped them get there. The Florida Panthers barely outlasted the Penguins in the race into the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, but then proved to be a force to be reckoned with by eliminating the best team in regular season history in the Boston Bruins, the star-studded Toronto Maple Leafs, and consistently one of the best teams in the league in the Carolina Hurricanes.
I don’t expect Carolina, New Jersey, or the New York Rangers to be bad enough to fall out of the top Metropolitan Division playoff spots, but crazier things have happened. Realistically, I anticipate the Penguins securing the top wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. If the Panthers taught us anything last season, it’s that all you need to do for a chance at the Cup is to get into the playoffs. It doesn’t matter which position you end up with, or who your opponent is. The Penguins seem to me, to be one of those teams that can make it in at a lower position standing-wise, then dominate the field. For that to happen, the Penguins don’t really need a miracle. All they need is Jarry to improve, have some bottom six forwards step up and produce offensively more than expected, and let the rest of the core do their part. You never have to worry about whether those guys will pull their weight because they always do.
I expect those core players to individually benefit from the improvements made this offseason. Having Karlsson on the team might help Crosby reach the 100-point mark for the first time since the 2018-19 season. I honestly think that is a realistic benchmark for him, given Karlsson’s addition and the inflation of scoring league-wide.
While he is expected to miss a few games to start the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jake Guentzel reach the 40-goal plateau for the third time in his career. He will be very motivated to put up big numbers this season, as he’s a pending unrestricted free agent and has a chance to get paid big next offseason.
Evgeni Malkin will likely be a beneficiary of the Karlsson addition as well. Beyond just the additional scoring chances from the power play, Malkin will almost always have one of Letang or Karlsson on the ice with him now at five-on-five. Malkin just played his first full season since 2008-09. If Malkin can keep away the injury bug again, I could see him keeping near his point pace last season, around 85 points.
With the addition of Karlsson, Rakell, and Rust are likely to permanently stay on the second power-play unit, unless there are injuries. I could see them losing some points because of that, but Rakell is still a mainstay in the top six, so I think he can easily recover those points.
Kris Letang’s season numbers will be very interesting to see. I still expect him to be on the top power-play unit but in a different position. His numbers could dip now that he’ll be splitting the offensive zone five-on-five time with Karlsson, but he could also become another Karlsson power-play merchant. I’m very interested to see how that turns out.
For Jarry, a good season would look something like this: .910 plus save percentage, 50-55 games played, and healthy to start the playoffs. The last qualification is the most important. If the Penguins have to go another year with a backup goalie starting the playoffs for them, it will have been another wasted year of this core, and a failure of Kyle Dubas, unless he adds a more capable backup goalie by the trade deadline.
I would like to see offensive strides made by the two youngest forwards this season; Drew O’Connor and Alex Nylander. If those two can each hit 10+ goals and 25+ points, I will have faith in them being contributors moving forward. Nylander has proven he can do it at the AHL level and is just getting his footing in the NHL with the Penguins. O’Connor has been given a fair amount of chances by the Penguins and needs to start proving he’s worth a spot in the top twelve forwards.
D Ty Smith is another interesting player. He’s 23 and has played over 100 NHL games in his career, but spent most of last season in the AHL. The Penguins need him to secure that bottom-pair spot. If he doesn’t, then the Penguins need to seriously consider their options in regard to whether he needs to be moved. Hextall gave up John Marino for him, and in New Jersey, Smith looked pretty good. Another season in the AHL for him would be a massive disappointment.
A name I’ve intentionally left out when discussing next year’s team is Jeff Carter. No, I didn’t forget about him. I expect him to be an extra forward, who slots in when injuries occur. Honestly, I think he’ll be better in this kind of role. He’s 38 years old and looked it last season. He was the slowest player on the ice every single game. I think having him out there for 20 games wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he’s well rested, not relied on heavily, and given low expectations, I could see him impressing in a very limited role. Giving him a contract extension with a no-move clause may have actually been Ron Hextall’s worse move as the Penguin's general manager.
With Crosby having just two years left on his contract, Malkin having three, and Karlsson having four, the time for the Penguins to win is now. Missing the playoffs is not an option and regardless of last season’s playoff miss, expectations shouldn’t change. Yes, simply making the playoffs is an improvement but that shouldn’t be the bar. Anything less than a Stanley Cup, until this core retires, is a disappointment. Kyle Dubas has pulled his weight this offseason, it’s time for the players to pull theirs. We’re just about a month and a half away from opening night at PPG Paints Arena, Penguins fans. It’s going to be a season for the ages. Let’s enjoy greatness.
