What to Expect from the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs

Photo Credit: Charlie Riedel, Associated Press

The reigning Super Bowl champions were one of the most talked-about teams this season, but it wasn’t for their performance on the field. Rather, a relationship between one of the premier tight ends in football and a pop superstar dominated the headlines and media coverage in Kansas City, while the product on the field was the worst in recent memory. With the opportunity to become the fifth team in NFL history to win consecutive Super Bowls just four wins away, do the Kansas City Chiefs have what it takes to hoist their third Lombardi Trophy in the Mahomes-Reid era?

The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season with an 11-6 overall record, the first time the team has failed to ellipse the 12-win mark since quarterback Patrick Mahomes took the reins in 2018. Although not up to their usual standards, this was enough to secure their eighth straight AFC West title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC. 

In the first half of the 2023-24 NFL season, it appeared like it would be business as usual in Kansas City. After falling short on opening night to the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs would rally off six straight wins, heading into their Week 10 bye with a 7-2 overall record. This is where the struggles would begin, however, as they would go on to lose four of their next six games, capped off by the nightmare on Christmas against the Aidan O’Connell-led Las Vegas Raiders in which they lost 20-14. Although the Chiefs would go on to win their last two games of the season, it was far from impressive, defeating the Bengals by one score and resting their starters in the regular season finale against the Chargers. 

This season marked the worst for a Mahomes-led offense, ranking No. 15 in points per game (21.8) and No. 9 in yards per game (351.3). The issue was not with the two-time NFL MVP, as his numbers were similar to that of the 2019 Super Bowl season, with the 28-year-old throwing for just over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. One area where Mahomes did regress was in the turnover department, posting a career-worst 14 interceptions during the regular season. 

Offensively, the blame for the lapse in production is being placed on the receiving core, and for good reason. The Chiefs led the league in drops with 44 of the 597 passes Mahomes threw falling through a receiver's hands, which was a league-leading 6.9% drop rate. The inexperience in the receiving core is a major reason for this, with standout rookie wideout Rashee Rice being the only reliable target outside of TE Travis Kelce. Despite all the outside distractions for the four-time All-Pro, Kelce posted another solid season, hauling in 93 receptions and coming just 16 yards shy of continuing his NFL record of seven straight thousand-yard seasons. 

Kansas City has made up for their offensive struggles on the other side of the ball, with the Chiefs having one of the top defenses in the NFL. Ranking 2nd in opponents' points per game (17.3) and yards per game (289.8), Steven Spagunolo’s unit has benefitted from the sustained pass rush attack from All-Pro DT Chris Jones and second-year phenom DE George Karlaftis, who both had 10.5 sacks this season. Lacking the notable names you would expect from a top defensive unit, the Chiefs' secondary has also been a strength thanks to young, underrated pieces such as cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, as well as safety Justin Reid.

The Chiefs will start their 2023-24 postseason at home against the No. 6 seed Miami Dolphins in the second game of Wildcard weekend. The Dolphins come into this game after seeing their hopes of winning their first AFC East title in 15 years crushed by the Buffalo Bills in the final game of the regular season. Conditions at Arrowhead are projected to be far from ideal, with temperatures expected to range from zero to negative nine degrees and winds of ten to twenty-mile-an-hour (mph) expected throughout. 

The wind chill in Kansas City Saturday night will be "dangerously cold," the National Weather Service says.

The latest forecast approaches a wind chill of -30 degrees.

An NFL source told me yesterday there will be no schedule change for the Dolphins-Chiefs game. https://t.co/999R3bUlsU

— Andy Slater (@AndySlater) January 11, 2024

Outside of the historically cold weather, this game marks the return of superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who will make his highly-anticipated return to Arrowhead since he was dealt to Miami in 2022. The conditions could make it difficult for the “Cheetah” to make an impact, as two of the top passing offenses in the NFL will likely have to rely on the run game. Offensively, the Dolphins will have the edge on the ground with star rookie running back Devon Achane and the likely return of speedster Raheem Mostert.

Injuries have continued to plague the Dolphins, as they will be without linebackers Jerome Baker (wrist) and Andrew Van Ginkel (foot), along with cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) who is unlikely to return. Safety Jevon Holland also remains limited despite making his return last week against Buffalo, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is also questionable for the contest. Fortunately for the Chiefs, injuries will not be much of a factor, with WR Kadarius Toney, LT Donovan Smith and Sneed being the only limited participants of note. 

Photo Credit: Alex Grimm, Getty Images

This is the second meeting between these teams this season, with the first being played in Frankfurt, Germany on Nov. 5. In a game that was projected to be high-scoring, it quickly turned into a defensive slugfest, with Kansas City getting the better of the Dolphins in the 21-14 victory. Accounting for the injuries and weather, this could make for a very similar outcome this upcoming Saturday. 

As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center for Kansas City, the ceiling for this Chiefs team is a second consecutive Super Bowl, despite the lack of talent offensively. However, it is hard to believe that this offense will be able to find its identity this late in the season, leading me to believe that Kansas City will fall short in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, where they will likely face the resurgent Buffalo Bills, who defeated them in Arrowhead just over a month ago.