Week 14 Preview: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens

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Week 14 is already off to a wild start as the New England Patriots picked up a big upset win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens has the potential for another possible upset. The Ravens come into this game sitting at 9-3 and hold the number two seed in the AFC. On the other side, the Los Angeles Rams are fighting to stay in the playoff picture as they currently hold a record of 6-6 and are the first team out as the eighth seed.

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Both teams have been playing well recently. The Ravens have been red hot winning six of their last seven games, the only loss being a shootout to the Browns where they lost 33-31. Then, two of their statement wins this season also came during this seven-game stretch as they blew out the Detroit Lions 38-6, and the Seattle Seahawks 37-3. For the Rams, they are on a three-game win streak as they beat the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Browns. Still, with the Ravens currently undefeated against the NFC at 3-0, it won’t be easy for the Rams to waltz into M&T Bank Stadium and pull out a victory.

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Looking at the two offenses, the Ravens have the advantage in total offense as they are ranked 7th compared to the Rams 13th. Through 12 games the Ravens are averaging 366.1 yards per game and have 37 offensive touchdowns. The Rams however are averaging 345.5 yards per game and only have 28 offensive touchdowns. Taking a deeper dive into the Ravens’ offensive success stems from their rushing attack. The Ravens have the top-ranked rushing offense averaging 158.6 rushing yards per game and are tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns at 22. This comes as no surprise as the combination of quarterback Lamar Jackson, running backs Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, and a great run-blocking offensive line is a recipe for success. Moving onto their passing offense, the Ravens haven’t been as effective as they're ranked 20th averaging 207.5 passing yards per game, and have only 14 passing touchdowns.

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This hasn’t slowed them down in the scoring department as the Ravens have the 7th ranked scoring offense averaging 27 points per game. One reason for their success has been their red zone offense. The Ravens have scored a touchdown 64.6% of the time they get inside their opponents' 20-yard line placing them third in the NFL. Now a second reason for their offensive success has been their third down offense. The Ravens are currently tied for 7th as they convert on third down 43.4% of the time. Even with these top-eight offensive numbers, they don’t compare to how great Baltimore’s defense is.

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Switching over to the Rams who have been slightly above average offensively this season as they’re ranked 13th in total offense. First, looking at the Rams' passing game they are averaging 231 passing yards per game and have 16 passing touchdowns putting them at 15. The big issue in the passing game has been the offensive line. The Rams have allowed 22 sacks this season which is tied for the fourth highest, if the Rams are able to limit the sacks this offense has the pieces to be much better. Now when running the ball, the Rams have been just as average. The Rams have the 14th-ranked rushing offense as they average 114.5 rushing yards per game and have 12 rushing touchdowns. With this, running back Kyren Williams has been battling injuries this season, and when he’s healthy their running game looks significantly better.

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Now when looking at the scoring department the Rams are ranked 13th averaging 22.3 points per game. This comes as a slight surprise considering how effective they’ve been in the red zone. Through 12 games, the Rams are scoring a touchdown 62.9% of the time they get inside their opponents' 20. This goes to show that the Rams struggle to move the ball in between the 20s, but once inside the red zone are a real threat to take advantage. One reason for their offense struggles outside the red zone may be due to their 13th-ranked third-down offense. On third down this season, the Rams are converting 40.9% of the time, and with them going against a top defense in the Ravens, they’ll have their work cut out for them Sunday.

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The Ravens come into this matchup with the second-ranked total defense holding opponents to an average of 273.9 yards per game and a league-lowest 16 touchdowns allowed. This starts in their pass defense as they are ranked 2nd holding their opposition to 171.7 passing yards per game and only ten passing touchdowns. Now when it comes to defending the run Baltimore has been slightly above league average. The Ravens are allowing their opposition to rush for 102.3 yards per game which is 11th best but have been stout in the red zone allowing only four rushing touchdowns. With how successful the Ravens have been when keeping their opponents out of the red zone, it comes as no surprise that they are the number one-ranked scoring defense. The Ravens are holding their opponents to 15.6 points per game, to put this into perspective there is only one other team holding their opponents to less than 17 points and that’s the 49ers.

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Taking a deeper dive into their red zone defense, the Ravens are ranked 3rd allowing their opponent to score a touchdown 37.5%. of the time they get inside the Ravens 20. This stellar defense doesn’t only occur in the red zone as the Ravens have been lockdown in other areas as well. For example, when looking at third-down defense the Ravens have been solid as their ranked 7th allowing the opposition to convert third downs 36.2% of the time. With their combination of great offense and defense, it makes sense why the Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL.

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Now switching over to a Rams defense that’s been inconsistent as they’ve allowed 330.8 yards per game and 25 touchdowns putting them 16th in total defense. The Rams have been equally bad at stopping the run and pass hence their middle-of-the-pack defensive ranking. Looking at their pass defense first, they are allowing 219.8 yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns which places them at 16th. Then for their rush defense, the Rams are allowing 111.1 yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns. This in turn correlates with the Rams scoring defense as they are allowing 21.1 points per game which is 16th in the NFL.

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Even with an overall average defense, one area the Rams have done well defensively is in the red zone. In the red zone, Rams’ opponents are scoring touchdowns 52.8% of the time which is 14th best in the league. On the other hand, one area the Rams have struggled defensively is on third down. The Rams have the 20th-ranked third-down defense allowing their opposition to convert on third down 40% of the time. This has been a big factor in why the Rams have struggled defensively. Nevertheless, with the Rams going against the 7th-ranked offense they are at a disadvantage and will have to do their best to limit the Ravens offensively.

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In the end, the Ravens are considered the heavy favorites in this matchup, as sportsbooks have them as 7.5-point favorites. The Ravens have the better offense, the significantly better defense, and are at home. Even with this, the Rams do have a fighting chance with the likes of head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford paired with their trio of wide receivers, they have the potential to put up points. It’s possible this game will be closer than most anticipate as the Rams have much more to lose as they’re on the outside looking in while the Ravens hold the two seed. With this, the Rams will have to play their best to pull out an upset victory against the superior Ravens.