The next era of great quarterback playoff matchups is upon us, as superstar quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are set to square off for their third postseason matchup this Sunday. History favors the two-time MVP, with Mahomes leading the Chiefs to victories in both the 2021 AFC Championship game and the unforgettable 2022 AFC Divisional thriller, in which Mahomes tied the game and forced overtime after gaining possession down three with just 13 seconds left in regulation. 

With this week’s matchup taking place in Orchard Park, will Josh Allen and the Bills be able to defend their home turf and defeat their conference rivals, or will Mahomes and the Chiefs send Buffalo packing for the third time in four years? 

Both teams won their Wild Card matchups handily, with the Bills taking care of the lowly Steelers 31-17 and Kansas City dominating the Dolphins 26-7 in the historically frigid conditions in Arrowhead. While both teams were seemingly untested in round one, the Chiefs hold an advantage in two regards; rest and health. 

Due to the snowstorms in Buffalo on Sunday, their matchup with Pittsburgh was moved to Monday afternoon, meaning the Chiefs, who competed on Saturday night, are afforded two extra days of rest in preparation for this Divisional-round matchup. 

To make matters worse for the Bills, they suffered a slew of injuries, with ten starters/rotational pieces being injured in some capacity heading into this weekend. Some of the notable names who have yet to practice this week include CB Christian Benford, LB Terrel Bernard, WR Gabe Davis, P Sam Martin, and S Taylor Rapp. 

One factor that is working in Buffalo's favor is their recent matchup history, as the Bills have won in back-to-back meetings dating back to mid-October of last season. Most recently, the two met in Week 14, where the Bills defeated the Chiefs 20-17 in Arrowhead. In this contest, Buffalo jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the second quarter, followed by a Chiefs second-half rally that would tie the game at 17 early in the fourth quarter. Neither offense would find much success until late in the fourth, when Josh Allen drove the Bills into Chief territory and set them up for what would be the game-winning field goal after the Chiefs offense stalled on the ensuing drive. 

This previous matchup set the groundwork for Buffalo if they want to advance to the AFC Championship game for the second time in three years; dominating time of possession by running the football, getting off to a fast start offensively, and winning the turnover battle. 

The Chief's defense has been one of the best in football, ranked second behind the Cleveland Browns. While they are near the top of the league in scoring defense and yards allowed, one area they have been below average is run defense, allowing 113.2 yards per game during the regular season. Having finally established a top-10 running offense behind the likes of RB James Cook and QB Josh Allen, the Bills need to set the tone early by running the football efficiently to control the clock and keep the Chiefs offense off of the field.

As for Kansas City, their keys to victory are to rely on their playmakers and force turnovers. Last week, the Chiefs offense performed well despite the conditions, which had a lot to do with their reliance on second-year back Isiah Pacheco, who contributed 89 rushing yards and a score, rookie sensation Rashee Rice, who had a career day with eight catches for 130 yards and a score, and future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce, who posted a solid day with seven receptions and 71 yards. With a limited number of reliable weapons at Mahomes’ disposal, they will need more of the same this weekend. 

As mentioned for both sides, turnovers are gonna be a major factor this week. Buffalo forced two crucial turnovers in their first meeting this season, but have struggled with turnovers offensively as of late, with QB Josh Allen finishing the regular season second in total turnovers with 22 and leading the Bills to finish tied seventh overall with 28. Mahomes has had his fair share as well, tied for sixth with 17 on the season and tying Buffalo with 28 total as well. Unlike Kansas City, Buffalo’s defense has been one of the best in forcing turnovers, ranked second in the NFL with 30 takeaways compared to the Chiefs being bottom five with only 17. With every possession increasingly important come playoff time, whoever wins the turnover battle this week will likely advance. 

Unlike last weekend for both teams, the weather is not set to play a factor in what is slated to be another tightly contested game between two of the AFC’s best, with one to three feet of snow expected to Thursday through Saturday and should not affect the game come kickoff on Sunday afternoon. 

For predictions from myself and other PSF staff on this matchup and the full weekend slate, check out our “PSF Staff Picks: Divisional Round” article, coming out later this week!