The Running Back Market Has Crashed
Throughout the last few seasons, it has become increasingly hard for running backs to obtain the contracts they want from their respective teams. Owners league wide have come to a consensus that the running back position is a depreciating asset, therefore they do not invest long term money in the position.
The NFL franchise tag is a one year contract that teams can extend to a player that they do not want to go into free agency. The contract is fully guaranteed for one year and the value of the tag is calculated by averaging the top five contracts at the position. The position with the highest tag amount is obviously quarterback at $32.4 million, the lowest is kicker at $5.4 million; running backs sit right above the kickers at $10.4 million.
Annually each position's franchise tag value goes up, as more players at the top of the market sign new deals. Over the last decade, the running backs tag value has increased by 21%, all other positions have increased by a minimum of 67%. Kickers have seen a 86% raise in tag value, 109% for offensive linemen, 117% for linebackers, and 120% for quarterbacks.
Players at the top of the running back market haven’t been routinely resetting the salary for the position. Christian McCaffrey was able to break through and earn the largest contract for a running back in league history signing a four-year, $64 million ($16 million annually) in 2020 with the Carolina Panthers, after he completed a historic season in which he rushed for 1,000 yards and had over 1,000 receiving yards. The next season he only played seven games due to injury, but bounced back in 2022 playing all 17 games and rushing for over 1,000 yards after being traded to the San Francisco 49ers midseason.
Before McCaffrey there was Ezekiel Elliot resetting the market, signing a six-year, $90 million contract ($15 million annually) with the Dallas Cowboys in 2019 after setting the league on fire in his first three seasons. Elliot had a historic rookie season rushing for over 1,600 yards, scoring 15 touchdowns and earning First Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors, while also finishing third in MVP voting. Since his extension in 2019 Elliot hasn’t produced to that level, only reaching 1,000 yards once since 2019, yards per carry average dropping from 5.1 his rookie year to 3.8 in the 2022 season. Elliot has not reached a Pro Bowl or earned any All-Pro honors since 2019.
Before Elliot there was Todd Gurley. In the 2019 season, Gurley had over 2,000 yards of total yards and 19 total touchdowns, winning Offensive Player of the Year and finishing second in MVP voting. He would be rewarded with a deal that would set an example for what to pay a top running back in the league and reset the market for the first time in years by signing a four-year, $60 million extension ($15 million annually) with the Los Angeles Rams in 2018. The contract also included $45 million in guaranteed money. In the season immediately following, Gurley continued his elite play with over 1,800 yards of total yards and 21 total touchdowns earning First Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors. In the following two seasons Gurley’s play dramatically decreased, he didn’t reach 1,000 yards in either the 2019 or 2020 season, Gurley’s yards per carry dropped over a yard from his 2018 season and his yards per game dropped over 40 yards from his 2018 campaign. Gurley was let go by the Rams following the 2019 season, he spent 2020 on the Atlanta Falcons before surprisingly retiring from the league before the 2021 season.
The last of the recent major contracts for elite running backs in the league is Le’Veon Bell. Bell was a force for the Pittsburgh Steelers between 2013-2017, earning three All Pro nods along with two seasons of 2,000 yards of total offense for the Steelers. However, they couldn’t agree on a contract and he chose not to sign the franchise tag, forcing him to sit out for the entire 2018 season and become a free agent. In free agency, he would sign a four-year, $52.5 million deal ($13.25 million annually) with the New York Jets. Bell would go on to only play one full season in New York, setting career lows in yards, yards per carry, yards per game, and touchdowns. He would then go on to play for three different teams across two more seasons; he has been out of the league since 2021.
These four major deals all fed into why owners in 2023 aren’t giving running backs long term contracts. All of the teams that gave these previously mentioned players their large contract (Panthers, Cowboys, Rams, Jets) were left to pay these players when eventually the production on the field did not match the compensation. With the salary cap being so prevalent in the sport, owners saw this “trend” and decided there were other positions that they should spend their money on.
This has all led up to this off-season, where it has been magnified more than ever that elite running backs aren’t going to be getting long-term deals. Saquon Barkley, 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler who has accounted for over 6,000 yards of total offense since he entered the league has been looking for a new deal from the New York Giants as his rookie contract expired after the 2022 season.
After Barkley’s astonishing rookie year he has had trouble playing an entire season, he only played two games in 2020 due to injury and missed three games in both the 2019 and 2021 season. 2022 was a bounceback season for Barkley as he set a career high in rushing yards and helped the Giants reach the playoffs for the first time in his career. The Giants in the first four seasons of Barkley’s career were not a good football team, with Barkley being one of the few bright spots on the team.
The Giants also have a young quarterback in Daniel Jones who had his best season to date in 2022, assisted by Barkley, and he was rewarded with a four-year, $160 million deal from the Giants. The Giants rewarded Jones who has 60 touchdowns and 34 interceptions in his first four seasons, instead of their highly productive running back because of this line of thinking that running backs aren’t worth long term contracts but a quarterback always will be.
Barkley isn’t the only running back looking for a deal; Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers has been looking for a long term deal for the last two off-seasons. The last two seasons Ekeler has done everything the Chargers have asked of him, he is their leading rushing for the past two seasons with over 1,800 yards on the ground; while also contributing heavily in the passing game with over 1,300 yards receiving. Still this level of production has not made the Chargers cave at all. Ekeler is also playing alongside one of the league most promising young quarterbacks, Justin Herbert, who just signed a five-year, 262.5 million contract with the Chargers this off-season.
Starting to see the theme here?
Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor are two other elite running backs who are struggling with the current market. Jacobs is looking to avoid the tag for a second consecutive season, even after leading the league in rushing yards in 2022. Taylor came out and asked for a trade after Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay stated the following in regards to the current running back market and possibly of him extending his talented young running back.
Taylor led the league in rushing yards and was a first team All-Pro in 2021, yet his team's owner is seemingly stating that running backs complaining about the market are operating in “bad faith”. Irsay’s comments further verify the consensus among owners that they are not going to give running backs long term contracts due to the fact that they are a depreciating asset.
Running back is arguably the most brutal position to play in professional football. Unlike all other positions, there is no penalty against hitting running backs. They are the least protected players on the field but their job is so necessary to team success. Having the ability to run the football in a productive and efficient manner is necessary to winning a Super Bowl. Critics of this theory will point out that no team in the modern NFL have won a Super Bowl with a running back on a larger deal but that stat is misleading.
Passing offenses have taken off in the last decade, with teams passing more and pushing the ball downfield. With that, defenses have responded by playing a lot of two high safety formations on defense to keep them from getting beat over the top. This takes a man out of the box (players lined up at line of scrimmage or within 3-5 yards of the center) making it easier to run the ball. The running back touches the ball the third most in a offense, behind only the center and quarterback; running the football has always been a part of the brand of the NFL and of Super Bowl winning teams throughout the leagues history, and dare I say it always will be.
In the 2022 season, teams combined for an average of 241 rushing yards per game, the highest mark since 1985, when players such as Walter Payton (who’s team won a Super Bowl in the 1985 season), Eric Dickerson, and Marcus Allen were the stars of the league, not the quarterbacks. Due to the league having such a dramatic shift toward passing, defenses have had to prioritize stopping the pass which has led to more rushing yards for teams who chose to take them.
Running the football is in the fabric of the NFL, it will be necessary in any era no matter who the players or coaches are. Due to this running backs will always be important to the league and to individual team success. So, alienating this position and not paying them what they are truly worth is not fair. They are being targeted by owners because of a couple of deals that have happened in the past that have not been lucrative for the team, but every position has had players that don’t play up to their contract, should that really mean that the next guy doesn’t get what he has earned?
