The Lions have been very popular on sportsbooks recently, is the hype real?
Throughout the NFL offseason, Detroit Lions have been talked about as a team that could make a major jump, and deservingly so. After an abysmal 3-13-1 record in 2021, Detroit has had an efficient offseason highlighted by a top tier draft and solid signings that has taken their rebuild one step forward. Football bettors have quickly caught onto this, as throughout July, the Lions have been at the forefront of NFL bets for many sports books. According to Sports Illustrated Writer Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer on Twitter), the most placed NFL bet on Caesar Sports Book this month has been the Lions winning more than 6 games. Additionally, head coach Dan Campbell and running back D'Andre Swift have had the most money placed on them to win the Coach of the Year award and the rushing title, respectively.
It's easy to see why the initial bet has taken sports books by storm. Out of the team's 13 losses and 1 tie, 6 games were decided within 5 points. Because of this, a major point of emphasis starting late last season and continuing throughout the offseason has been having a better approach late in games. The Lions have also brought in some notable pieces that should address a lot of areas the Lions struggled in last season. Detroit was 25th in scoring offense last season, which in part was due to the inability to move the ball downfield and the lack of an established red zone target. The arrival of former Jacksonville receiver DJ Chark, a pro bowler in 2019, as well as rookie Jameson Williams, the 12th pick in this year's draft, should help improve both of those categories considerably. The sudden emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who statistically was one of the best receivers during the second half of last season, should also be a staple of the Lions offense in his second season. Couple all of this with the fact that Detroit has the 5th easiest schedule in 2022 based on opponent win percentage, and at least 7 wins is definitely in the realm of possibility for Detroit this year.
I like the popularity of taking Campbell to win Coach of the Year. A big part of the award's criteria is the improvement from the previous season, and, well… there's a lot of room to improve in the win column after winning 3 games. Also, NFL media has admired the culture that Campbell is instilling in the Lion locker room, and with the Lions being selected as the team to be featured on HBO's Hard Knocks, that admiration could further expand. The bet also has tremendous value, with betting website Odds Shark giving Campbell +1800 odds to win the award.
Although there is certainly logic behind the first two bets, Swift drawing the most money to win the rushing title is a head-scratcher. There certainly is reason to be high on Swift as a player this year, though. For one, he's a phenomenal player and one of the most versatile backs in football. He can hurt defenses on the ground and through the air. Swift also has an elite offensive line in front of him, which should make him that much more dangerous. The argument against Swift leading the league in rushing next season has absolutely nothing to do with him as a player, but rather the number of carries he gets in comparison to the rest of the league. Last season, Swift averaged 11.6 carries per game, which wasn't even top 25 in that category. Derrick Henry, who should be fully healthy entering this season, averaged more than double that. Throw in guys like Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon, all of whom averaged more than 18 carries per game, and it's easy to realize that Swift doesn't get nearly enough volume to even contend for the title. While Swift should get more opportunity on the ground due to the improvement of the offense, the volume is still too small.
All told, seeing the Lions become this popular on sports books is further evidence that they are viewed in good light by a lot of the league, and is a good indicator that NFL fans in mass are recognizing the success of the Lions rebuild.
