Sturniolo’s Way Too Early 2024 Mock Draft
The NFL Draft is the most wonderful time of the year, and while the weeks tick by to next April, let’s go ahead and look into what the first round will look like for next year, with a projected draft order. No trades, that would just complicate things even more.
Arizona Cardinals (0-17) - Caleb Williams, QB, Southern California
The Cardinals have given up on Kyler Murray, even after a winless season without him. Having a generational quarterback talent sitting there at first overall staring you in the face is what does it, a fresh start as Arizona tries to find a new place for Kyler Murray. In a draft where many teams are quarterback-hungry and they’re aren’t many to go around, Murray will be a fantastic asset to move and get value from.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-14) - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Tampa isn’t the same this year with the tremendous step down from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. With likely a new set of management in town to help start over, they get their quarterback to move forward with.
3. Tennessee Titans (3-14) - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Yes, the problem is quarterback, but the Titans are willing to give Will Levis a chance after a horrendous season. They get him the best weapon coming out of the draft that’s been seen, probably since Julio Jones. He’s that good.
4. Washington Commanders (4-13) - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
After a slow start, Ron Rivera is ousted from the nation’s capital, and Eric Bienemy is given the chance to coach a full season as head coach. He goes and gets what worked best for him in Kansas City, a fantastic tight end who can never seem to drop a ball. He has Sam Howell in place, and trusts the rest of his pieces, so this is the pick to help Bienemy prove his stuff as a head coach.
5. Chicago Bears (5-12) - Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
The Bears have two first round picks, but if they’re picking this high, Justin Fields didn’t work out. They opt to take the best defensive player at a position of need off the board and then reassess the quarterback position with their second pick. Verse is an absolute monster on the defensive line, who is getting overshadowed already in the draft process by the big, flashy offensive talent coming out of this class.
6. Indianapolis Colts (5-12) - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Pennsylvania State
Olu Fashanu was draft eligible this season, and could have come out for the 2023 Draft. He would likely have been taken third overall by the Cardinals, who had a massive need for an offensive lineman, and Fashanu is the best offensive lineman seen in a very, very long time. Fashanu decided to return to college for a final season, and will very much help the development of Drew Allar at Penn State, while still keeping his stock pretty much the same. He falls to sixth here for a lack of need from the top five teams, but could very easily go all the way up to second overall if the right team finds his value.
7. Arizona Cardinals (via 6-11 Houston Texans) - Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals have their offensive line set, that was what this past draft was for. Now, they turn to load up on weapons that will help Caleb Williams succeed. Egbuka is the next best weapon on the board after Harrison and Bowers, so they pounce and take him. The only concern with Egbuka is that he will play behind Harrison on the depth chart at Ohio State, and has never really gotten the chance to be the top guy in a wide receivers room.
8. New York Giants (7-10) - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Why would the New York Giants regress this year? Daniel Jones is an option, but looking at what doomed them against the Eagles, it was their lack of stars in the secondary. So, they look to address that need, getting one of the top defensive backs in the draft out of Nick Saban’s defensive back factory, found somewhere in Tuscaloosa.
9. Chicago Bears (via 7-10 Carolina Panthers) - Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas
The Bears find themselves a quarterback they like, so they take him. Justin Fields did not work out, so use the last two years of his rookie contract to transition a guy from your system into the league, and move off of Justin Fields.
10. New England Patriots (7-10) - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Even after the departure of Bill Belichick this offseason, the Patriots still draft in their own special way, waiting for star players at positions of lesser value to fall, and then taking them to develop in their system.
Photo Credit: Alabama Athletics
11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) - Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama
There’s no way Kirk Cousins is still in Minnesota after this season, but seeing the way the Vikings fell apart at the end of last season, it’s obvious that they need more help on the defensive side of the ball, specifically in that front seven.
12. Green Bay Packers (via 7-10 New York Jets) - JC Latham, OT, Alabama
David Bakhtiari is getting older, and it’s time that the Packers got some younger talent on the line to surround Jordan Love with. It’s fairly obvious they’re not looking to give up on Love just yet, so giving him the best offensive line he can work with is important.
13. Green Bay Packers (8-9) - Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB, Clemson
And then they can take what is a very Packers pick, a high end defensive talent to add to the pile and not provide any help to Jordan Love at all. Trotter is a fantastic player in his own right, the best inside linebacker seen in a long time, and him with the Packers will be a sight to see.
14. Houston Texans (via 8-9 Cleveland Browns) - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Worthy was what made that Texas offense explosive last year, him with the lethal versatility of Bijan Robinson. Setting up CJ Stroud with a weapon heading forward will help with his production and hopefully help to break the curse of Ohio State quarterbacks in the NFL.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9-8, missed playoffs) - Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Geno Smith comes back down to Earth in a year that doesn’t show much progression from the team overall. The Seahawks decide to move on and find a quarterback with the same skillset but a higher ceiling to transition off of Smith.
16. Denver Broncos (9-8, missed playoffs) - Kingsley Suamataia, OT, Brigham Young
The Broncos still don’t have that many needs, just got a bit unlucky during the season in a couple of close games to end it all for them. Big strides from where they were last season, however. They choose to go best player available here and reinforce their offensive line with some young depth.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8, missed playoffs) - Chop Robinson, DE, Pennsylvania State
They need someone else on that line to help out TJ Watt. He can’t do it all on his own, so after another season of an over .500 record, the Steelers get another monster to make that front seven all the more dangerous.
18. Las Vegas Raiders (9-8, missed playoffs) - Kalen King, CB, Pennsylvania State
The Raiders still need a lot of help on the defensive side, and even with the development of Tyree Wilson, some back end help is necessary to get a well-rounded team in action. King is the next best available defensive back on the board, and will do wonders to help out that position and level of their defense.
19. Detroit Lions (9-8, won NFC North, eliminated in Wild Card) - Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Lions are left wondering what else they can do to win after a disappointing end to their season. They go get themselves a kneecap-biting prospect in Newton to stack up their defensive line.
20. Miami Dolphins (9-8, got Wild Card berth, eliminated in Wild Card) - Javon Bullard, CB, Georgia
Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard aren’t getting any younger, and without much of a need seen here given the state of the board, they choose to inject some youth into that positional group.
21. New Orleans Saints (10-7, got Wild Card berth, eliminated in Wild Card) - JT Tuimoloau, DE, Ohio State
The Saints make it back to the playoffs on the back of Derek Carr, but fall in the wild card round to the stout offensive line of Atlanta. Solution? Go get another high-end defensive lineman.
22. Los Angeles Rams (10-7, got Wild Card berth, eliminated in Wild Card) - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Rams moved on from Jalen Ramsey, and while a healthy team allowed them to get back to the playoffs, they still felt that loss. Getting a new player to slot in where Ramsey was missing this past year will help out the Rams long term, assuming Sean McVay doesn’t trade away this pick for someone already in the league.
23. Buffalo Bills (11-6, won AFC East, eliminated in Wild Card) - Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
All together, now, what do the Bills need? A potent rushing attack. Get the best in the class.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5, won AFC North, eliminated in Wild Card) - Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State
Never hurts to continue to fortify the offensive line, with no good players at a position of need around this spot of the draft.
25. Atlanta Falcons (11-6, won NFC South, eliminated in Divisional Round) - Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA
As long as he’s not Takk McKinley, Falcons fans will be happy.
26. Dallas Cowboys (11-6, got Wild Card berth, eliminated in Divisional Round) - Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio State
Someone to go across from Trevon Diggs is never a bad option, and this will also just further lockdown the Cowboys’ back end defense.
Photo Credit: University of Texas Athletics
27. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, won AFC West, eliminated in Divisional Round) - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Another weapon for Mahomes after a clunky loss in the Divisional Round and a tightly-fought season against the division rival Chargers.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (14-3, won AFC South, eliminated in Divisional Round) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Jaguars cruise to the AFC’s top seed with an easy schedule, but find themselves in need of another weapon to assist Trevor Lawrence, even after an insane return year from Calvin Ridley.
29. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5, won NFC East, lost NFC Championship Game) - Caden Bullock, S, Southern California
The Eagles win the NFC East not as decisively, and feel the loss of CJ Gardner-Johnson throughout the year. They look to get a true safety prospect as a replacement.
30. Los Angeles Chargers (12-5, got Wild Card berth, lost AFC Championship Game) - Zion Nelson, OT, Miami (FL)
The Chargers experience a renaissance with everyone healthy, and just fall short of the Chiefs for the division crown. They carry their momentum into the playoffs where Baltimore’s pass rush overwhelms them, so they look to take someone to assist their offensive line even more in this spot.
31. Baltimore Ravens (12-5, got Wild Card berth, lost Super Bowl) - Malachi Moore, CB, Alabama
The Rvanes look to get back what they lost this offseason, a pair of elite corners to lock down opposing pass offenses.
32. San Francisco 49ers (14-3, won NFC West, won Super Bowl) - Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State
This is the year that the Niners finally get it done. After years upon years of getting this close and falling short, they finally do it, and take another weapon for Super Bowl MVP quarterback Brock Purdy to work with in the coming season.
There it is, all 32 picks of the first round detailed, along with general predictions for the 2023 NFL Season.
