Staff Picks: Divisional Round
Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated
What a weekend of Wild Card games! High-scoring affairs here, hard fought defensive struggles there, and whatever that Bills/Steelers game was.
Connor, NFL Editor for PSF, back again here. I loved how our staff picks went last week, so here we are again with more! Two less games to cover, but we’re throwing the Ravens and 49ers back into the mix.
Photo Credit: Brad Mills, USA TODAY Sports
(4) Houston Texans at (1) Baltimore Ravens, Jan. 20, 4:30 EST
Our staff was mostly wrong last week, deciding 3-2 in favor of the Cleveland Browns. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud had something to say about that, defying most pundits’ predictions and decimating the Browns’ No. 1 ranked defense en route to a 45-14 victory at home.
The Ravens sat back and watched the Wild Card round unfold last week, using their bye to rest up and scout out who their opponent would be, come this weekend. The last time the Ravens had the No. 1 seed and a first round bye, they were embarrassed at home by a surprise AFC South team, bouncing them from the playoffs long before they thought they would exit.
Does history repeat itself, or does the Ravens’ “team of destiny” put some demons to bed?
Trent Finnegan: This is probably my favorite game of the whole postseason. CJ Stroud vs. Lamar Jackson is going to be cinema for years to come. However, this Ravens team is just too good right now, they have playoff experience, and they’re at home in the Bank this weekend. Baltimore wins 34-27 after Stroud keeps Houston in it with his arm talent.
Samir Ajy: The buildup is very similar to the packers-Niners game. An upstart team exceeding expectations avs the perennial contender with Super Bowl aspirations. The Texans will keep it interesting in the first half, but the battle-tested Ravens, with their MVP QB looking to change the narrative on his playoff shortcomings will run away with it in the second half, despite missing Marlon Humphrey and Mark Andrews. I predict CJ Stroud gets a little rattled, throws a couple of picks, and the Ravens take this one 31-14
Ani Harsha: Lamar Jackson will be quickly exposed yet again in the playoffs, as CJ Stroud surely throws for more than 250 yards in a monumental upset. According to Statmuse, Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs, which will soon be 1-4 after this weekend. The only issue that could face the Texans is the cold weather, but I am confident that Stroud will be able to overcome the hindrance to topple the Ravens. Texans 24-17.
Sean Salazar: The Texans surprised me last week, showing that they have the resiliency to compete against tough defenses even though the team is very young on both sides of the ball. They will be challenged though with this well growing Baltimore team that beat them week 1 25-9, do I see the same outcome no the last time Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were the #1 seed they got upset by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round 28-12 at home. I think CJ Stroud can do that for his team because he’s already seen big moments like this and he has taken the playoff route very well so far. I have the Texans winning 34-24.
James Stowell: What a season for Stroud and the Texans this time around. You go from the second pick in the draft to division crown and a wild card win against the best defense in the league. Instead of that, they face off against the Ravens, who are the sixth best defense overall and the sixth best passing defense in the NFL. The Texans defense meanwhile do not have a great defense this year. Barely ranked in the top 20 in the league in passing defense and overall. The Texans will face a tough challenge on offense again, but the question is can they repeat their magic against the Browns. They are facing an MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson instead of a fourth string backup in Joe Flacco. I unfortunately think that Houston’s miracle run is over and that Jackson will carve up the Texans passing defense. If the Texans and their top 10 rushing defense can contain his scrambling ability, the Ravens could face a tough challenge. I think the Ravens will win 27-19.
Austin Loring: The sports media and analysts are taking the Baltimore Ravens in a landslide victory in this game. I beg to differ after the impressive showing we saw from quarterback C.J. Stroud last week against the Cleveland Browns in his playoff debut. The Texans have a huge chance to easily pull off the upset against the one seeded Ravens this Saturday. After dissecting a top five defense from the regular season. What is stopping Stroud and the Texans from doing it again against another AFC North opponent. This is a huge game for the future outlook we have on Lamar Jackson and his career. Jackson is a great quarterback, but has shown countless times that he crumbles in the playoffs, which has hampered the way people look at his career so far. If the Ravens win this game, it will be a huge boost to Jackson’s stock in the talk around quarterbacks in the league. This game could be a defensive battle, with an underrated Texans defense having the parts that could shut down Jackson and the Ravens run game. My bold prediction is a Texans win, prevailing over the Ravens with a final score of 35-21.
Photo Credit: Michael Ainsworth, AP Photo
(7) Green Bay Packers at (1) San Francisco 49ers, Jan. 20, 8:15 EST
I did not expect Green Bay to go and decimate the Cowboys on the road, but to be fair, all but one of our staff didn’t either, a 3-1 decision for the Cowboys.
The Packers are playing with all the house money at this point, they have absolutely nothing to lose if they want to go on a deep playoff run. The problem with that is they’re facing their biggest challenge yet, a road tilt against the rested No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers have answered any big challenges that have come their way this season (except one), deftly defeating the Cowboys and Eagles earlier in the regular season, going 5-2 overall against playoff teams throughout the 18 weeks.
Will the Packers’ white-hot run continue, or will they be sent packing by a juggernaut 49ers team?
Joe Grassano: Over the past ten years the Green Bay Packers are 0-4 against the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs. With a 13-10 defeat in the divisional round in 2022 being their most recent. In that game, the Packers' defense held San Francisco to 212 total yards ( 106 passing and 106 rushing), but then Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could not lead them to victory. The Packers enter this game with quarterback Jordan Love who has looked amazing the second half of this season but is by far going against the best defense he has faced all season. That is why I believe this is where the Packers season comes to an end with a 35-14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
Shannen Horan: The Packers surprised me last week when they decimated the Cowboys, which I am grateful for because now I don’t have to hear Cowboys fans boast. Even though I love the “underdog” mentality, I will have to go with the 49ers on this one. San Francisco has been the team that people can point to and say “they are going to the Super Bowl” and some people even add “they are going to win the Super Bowl.” The 49ers have dominated in the NFC and with the benefit of the bye week, I believe San Francisco will send the Packers back to Wisconsin and continue to the NFC Championship.
Joe Frescott: There is no denying the fact that Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers looked like a force to be reckoned with last Sunday when they embarrassed the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. They face a much tougher task this weekend against an experienced 49ers team that is arguably the best in football. Bolstering a top 3 offensive and defensive unit, San Francisco comes into this game having not lost a playoff game in Santa Clara since 2011. Although I do think the Packers' offense performs well once again, I am not convinced that their defense has enough to stop the plethora of weapons the 49ers have at their disposal. Sorry cheeseheads, this is where the Packers hype train comes to an end. My official prediction is 49ers win 35-24.
Paul Vozzella: Green Bay surprised a lot of fans last weekend when they upset the Dallas Cowboys. Jordan Love played some of his best ball of the season and is quickly proving to be a franchise quarterback.
This week, he goes against an elite defense in San Francisco. The 49ers defensive unit boasts four Pro Bowlers to tag along with their five players on the other side of the ball that also achieved the accolade.
Ultimately, the 49ers have too much postseason experience and a winning culture beyond the regular season. The Packers are young and upcoming, but their run ends here after putting up a great fight. Give me the 49ers by a score of 27-17.
(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (3) Detroit Lions, Jan. 21, 3:00 EST
Our staff loved the Lions in their matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, favoring them 4-1. They also favored the Bucs 3-1 against an imploding Eagles team, but how will they go for this game?
Baker Mayfield is an enigma. He’s on his fourth team in the course of three years, but is also one of five quarterbacks in NFL history to win a playoff game with multiple teams (joining Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre). His Bucs dismantled the Eagles at home in a game where the Eagles were favored at a certain point.
The Lions had a true homecoming to the playoffs on Sunday, having to defeat the quarterback who they let go of to get to this spot to advance. A close game was expected, but the Lions pulled away and held on where it mattered most, securing another home playoff game (something many Lions fans didn’t expect, but definitely have the Packers to thank for it).
Will the Lions’ run continue en route to an NFC title game appearance, or will Mayfield’s team defy the odds once again to upset Detroit?
Trent Finnegan: A lot of people are going to look at what these two teams did in the regular season and see how much better Detroit looked than Tampa before last week. However, coming off one of the best wins of Wild Card weekend, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are playing some inspired ball and are showing that they have the tools to win in January. 24-23 Tampa.
Ani Harsha: The Detroit Lions offense is rolling, and will continue to roll in an easy matchup against the Buccaneers. Though their 9-8 record seems irrelevant after their rout of the Eagles, they’ve been proven to underperform in a number of games. They wouldn’t be 9-8 otherwise. In the last four regular season games, the Lions’ offense averaged 409.6 yards per game, according to Football Reference, and that offense will be too much for the Bucs’ defense to handle. Lions 33-14
Samir Ajy: The Baker Mayfield CPOY campaign ends here. The Bucs have nothing to be ashamed of. They were 4-7 at one point in the season and were considered an afterthought with questions looming about Todd Bowles’ job security. The Bucs then won 5 of their last 6 en route to a third straight NFC South title and knocked off an imploding Philadelphia Eagles team in the process last week. The Lions are coming off their first playoff win in 32 years and are looking to make it to their first NFC Championship, also in 32 years. I expect the Lions offense to fully take over in this one. 27-14 Detroit moves on and their storybook season continues.
Sean Salazar: Even though the Bucs are coming off a great dominant game, they will be facing a tough Lions defense that loads the box and trusts their secondary to play man coverage. The Lions are going to also be challenged as an offense due to the box the Bucs trust with defensive lineman Vita Vea, and linebackers Devin White, and Lavonte David to cover the Lions dual threat run game with Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery to lead the charge. In all sense of this, I got the Lions making it to the NFC Championship Game by a score of 31-17.
James Stowell: Another magical run by Baker Mayfield. This is possibly the most intriguing matchup of the postseason. Both the Buccaneers and Lions have had offensive highs and lows. The key difference is their defenses. Both teams have a top five rushing defense, with the Lions having the second best rushing defense in the league. However, both teams have difficulties stopping the pass. The Lions had a top 10 passing defense early on into the season, but injuries and inconsistent QB play putting them in bad situations have caused their rank to tank as the year went on. Goff has had trouble throwing against perceived bad defenses like the Bears multiple times over the season. If the Buccaneers and their severely underrated defense, ranked 10th in sacks, can force pressure on Jared Goff the Lions could crumble. I think the Buccaneers will shock the world and upset the Lions 25-23.
Austin Loring: The Lions have already beat this Buccaneers team 20-6 in Week 6 while having a lot more injuries and without running back David Montgomery for most of the game. That is the regular season and this is the playoffs making this a whole different ball game entirely. While the Buccaneers defeated the Eagles handily in the WildCard, that Eagles team also just came off losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants. This should be an easy win for the Lions, but as a grizzled veteran of the Detroit Lions anything is possible with this franchise. The Lions could collapse in classic Lions fashion or they could dominate and drop 40 plus points on the Buccaneers. I will go with the latter and except the former with a final score of 45-10 in the Lions’ favor, sending my Detroit Lions to their first NFC Championship game since the 1991 season.
Photo Credit: USA TODAY Sports
(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills, Jan. 21, 6:30 EST
No surprises with these two sets of staff picks, Bills 5-0 and Chiefs 5-0. It’s like this matchup was meant to happen.
Bills vs. Chiefs, a rematch of the fantastic matchup that happened a couple of years ago, but with one thing different: Buffalo is the setting for the showdown. The Bills had their game delayed two days because of the Lake effect snow coming into the city, making it near uninhabitable for fans that were planning to watch the game. The fans still showed up for the game Monday to see the Bills offense operate as best as they could in the conditions, sending the Steelers packing into the offseason.
The Chiefs were dealing with an even worse cold, with little snow but temperatures dropping into the negatives at Arrowhead. The Dolphins, no matter how prepared they were, couldn’t stand up to the combination of the Chiefs’ defense and the bitter cold, succumbing to the attack and heading back to Miami.
What will the game look like, and will the underdog(?) Chiefs be up for the challenge of snowy Buffalo?
Joe Grassano: These two teams last met in Week 14 of this season, with Buffalo coming out on top, 20-17. While Buffalo has beaten Kansas City in three out of their last four regular season matchups, they are yet to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. However, comparing the way the two teams finished the year, the Bills have a slight advantage going into this game since they have been basically playing playoff games since that game in Week 14. Whereas the Chiefs have been inconsistent throughout that same stretch. That is why I believe the Bills will finally get their first playoff victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday night, with the final score being 27-24, Buffalo.
Shannen Horan: This is a matchup I think everyone saw coming. Both teams are coming off cold Wild Card victories and are gearing up for another cold, snowy game this weekend. Buffalo will have the home-field advantage this game, but it won’t make this matchup any less difficult. Both the Bills and the Chiefs have been inconsistent this season, but I feel like the Bills have been able to turn it around toward the end of the season. Buffalo currently has a five-game win streak, and I believe they will be able to extend it to six games after this weekend. It will be a close game, but I don’t think the Chiefs have the team to put it all together, and will have to watch the AFC Championships on their couches at home.
Joe Frescott: Meeting for the third time in the playoffs over the last four years, the Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Buffalo Bills in what many are anticipating to be the game of the week. Both teams took care of inferior opponents in Wild Card Weekend, winning by multiple scores. While this game does take place in Buffalo, a few factors are working against the Bills; a short week and a plethora of injuries. Regardless, this Chiefs team has overperformed all season, and the lack of playmakers on offense is going to impact this game tremendously. I expect the same result as when these two teams met in Week 14, with the Bills beating the Chiefs 31-27.
Paul Vozzella: Here we go again. In what seems like an every year occasion, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes find themselves squaring off in the playoffs. Both coming off multiple score victories in the wild card round, this match is shaping up to be the game of the week. Patrick Mahomes proved that he does not need the offensive firepower to win in the playoffs, but now goes on the road for the first time in his postseason career. The Bills did what everyone thought they would do to the Steelers, and now face an actual challenge. Can they maintain their late season success? In what is going to be a battle, Buffalo finally prevails over Kansas City. The Bills get the 24-23 win.
Photo Credit: ESPN
Of the 28 picks made last week, our staff went 20-8, the biggest miss being the picks of Cowboys over Packers. One Super Bowl prediction bit the dust as well, with the predicted Browns/49ers matchup failing out with the Browns’ loss to the Texans. Now, for this week’s staff question:
Staff: Of the currently eliminated teams (Browns, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Eagles), how many and which ones will have head coaching vacancies heading into the offseason, and who might fill them? If you don’t think there’s going to be any, update your Super Bowl pick.
Trent Finnegan: The Cowboys confirming that Mike McCarthy would be returning wasn’t surprising given his regular season success. Stefanski and McVay are here to stay, and you can’t get rid of Mike McDaniel just yet because he has a quarterback who falls apart at the end of the season. It’s either Mike Tomlin for Pittsburgh, who abruptly left his press conference when asked about his contract, or Nick Sirianni for Philadelphia, who couldn’t find out how to stop a zero blitz on Monday, an adjustment that any Madden player could make in seconds.
Ani Harsha: None of the teams will have coaching vacancies heading into next season. Though the Eagles’ collapse throws a bad light on Nick Sirriani’s coaching abilities, he still was able to take the Eagles to a Super Bowl Appearance in 2023, which should not be overlooked. The Browns were missing their starting quarterback, resulting in a valid excuse to keep Kevin Stefanski. The Rams will keep McVay, considering his continued ability to take the Rams into the playoffs and his obvious ability to win a championship. The Dolphins and Steelers will have no change in head coach, seeing as the Steelers have had excellent success in the regular season(and were missing Pickett in the playoffs) and the Dolphins have enough talent for McDaniel to build on for coming seasons. In terms of my Super Bowl pick, it will be Lions versus Chiefs for a Thursday Night Football rematch in Las Vegas.
Sean Salazar: As much as I think Sirianni should be fired after a terrible ending on the last 7 games going 1-6, I don’t think he will and that was the only coach I was thinking would be fired. With that being said, my new Super Bowl prediction will be the 49ers winning it all against the Ravens, 34-27
James Stowell: I do not think there will be any vacancies among the teams eliminated as all of them, minus the Cowboys and maybe the Eagles, have shown improvement in some way either offensively or defensively. The Cowboys meanwhile are keeping McCarthy and the Eagles players are standing up for Nick Sirianni. Meanwhile, for my Super Bowl pick, I still think it will be the Ravens and 49ers unless the Texans pull off an upset. I don’t conceive of anyone in the NFC as of this moment beating the 49ers. The AFC is more concerning. If the Ravens don’t get to the Super Bowl I could see the Bills going instead as the Chiefs offensive woes still concern me, being drops by Toney.
Joe Grassano: I don't think any of these teams eliminated will have any coaching vacancies this season. However, I do think Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel may be on the hot seat next season. Sirianni will stay head coach because he brought the Eagles to a Super Bowl last season. However, if his team starts out next year the way it ended this year, or he has another epic collapse, he will be gone by the end of next season. As for McDaniel, he has helped the Dolphins make it to the Playoffs in back-to-back seasons. However, in both seasons, they had major injury issues at the end of the year and came into the wild card round undermanned. While that is not all McDaniel’s fault, some blame does go on him as the coach. If that cycle happens again next year, even though he is a great offensive mind, he could get fired.
Shannen Horan: I still stand with my Super Bowl prediction being the 49ers and Ravens and the Ravens winning. The only head coach I think is on the hot seat from the eliminated teams is Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has been with the team for 17 years, but tensions have risen in the last couple of years. How he acted at the press conference makes fans suspect that his future with the Steelers is questionable. With so many head coaches on the market, this could be the year the Steelers look elsewhere.
Joe Frescott: There is only one team that should move on from their head coach after being eliminated this past weekend: the Dallas Cowboys. After getting embarrassed against a young Packer team and not advancing past the Divisional round of the playoffs for three straight seasons, Mike McCarthy’s time as head coach of Dallas SHOULD be coming to an end, although recent reports indicate he will remain at the helm next season. The Cowboys have had too much talent in recent years to not perform come playoff time, and failing to win games when it matters the most falls directly on the head coach. Outside of McCarthy, I wouldn’t be opposed to the Eagles letting go of Nick Sirianni, although I believe his success outside the second half of this season is enough for him to keep his job. Coaching carousel aside, my Super Bowl prediction remains the 49ers over the Ravens by a score of 34-31.
Paul Vozzella: It does not seem right to fire a coach after a trip to the playoffs. However, it is not every offseason that a candidate like Bill Belichick comes around.
Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin are confirmed to be coming back next season.
Nick Sirianni seems to be on the hot seat, but Belichick also seems to be on the verge of accepting a job with the Atlanta Falcons. Had Belichick still been up for grabs, I think Sirianni would get the boot. Luckily, his job security stays safe.
As far as the Super Bowl goes, there’s no doubt in my mind anymore that the 49ers make their run. After seeing the Bills performance last week, they are playing team football at an elite level. I think NFL fans are in for a San Francisco-Buffalo matchup come February.
Austin Loring: The Steelers, Cowboys and Eagles should all fire their head coaches, but we know none of them will. Nick Sirianni has lost his locker room and put out a football team in the playoffs that looked like it did not even want to go out and play for their sorry excuse of an egotistical head coach. It should not matter his past successes because his collapse at the end of the season is enough to fire 28 out of the 32 coaches in the NFL. The Cowboys and Jerry Jones must love insanity because they continue to stick with the same old year after year, expecting something new to come about it. Until Jerry stops hiring yes men, this team will never make it to an NFC Championship game or the Divisional round of the playoffs. The Steelers continue to show that they love mediocrity with keeping Tomlin around when he should have been let go after the embarrassing loss to the Cleveland Browns a few years ago. Steelers fans should be expecting more years of 9-8 incoming because that is all Tomlin and his coaching staffs/trees are good for.
Thanks for reading! Join us again next week for Championship Weekend, as the Super Bowl image starts to solidify further.
