Why the Detroit Lions’ Rebuild Won’t Take As Long As You Think
New Lions GM Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell are experiencing firsthand just how difficult turning a franchise around can be The Lions have lost 8 consecutive games dating back to last season and are one of only two remaining winless teams in the NFL (Jaguars). Lions’ fans understand they are in the first year of a rebuild and are willing to go through the growing pains in hopes of winning their first playoff game in 29 years. The slow start should not come as a surprise to many since Holmes and Campbell are inheriting a Lions team that was 13-29-1 under previous the previous regime of GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia.
Bob Quinn was named the Lions GM in 2016 and struggled to consistently build the team through the draft. Of his five drafts (2016-2020), Quinn hit on 3/5 first rounders, offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow, and tight end T.J. Hockenson. The verdict is still out on cornerback Jeffery Okudah. However, Quinn found little to no success in the following rounds. Of his second-round picks, 4/5 are currently not on the team and only 6/27 fourth to seventh rounders remain on the team. Very little success can also describe head coach Matt Patricia’s tenure. Known for his defensive prowess, the Lions defense ranked in the bottom-8 in every defensive category which resulted in three straight last place finishes in their division.
The new regime made it clear about their intentions to rebuild after they sent Matthew Stafford to LA for two 1st-round draft picks. Brad Holmes has experience building through the draft and has brought the same strategy to Detroit. Before even using one of their additional first round picks however, many Lions fans believe that their rebuild has been accelerated thanks to Brad Holmes first draft earlier this year. Many fans and NFL executives believe tackle Penei Sewell will become a generational talent and will make the offensive line of Detroit their greatest strength. With defensive end Romeo Okwara missing the remainder of the season due to a torn Achilles, rookie defensive ends Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill will get more playing time as will rookie linebacker Derrick Barnes.
The biggest question about the Lions rebuild is who will be their future quarterback? Jared Goff hasn’t played poorly through his first four games, especially when you think about the talent, or lack thereof, at the receiver position. Through four games, Goff has a QBR of 96.8 and has completed 68% of his passes. Though a rookie would have trouble duplicating those numbers in their first season, does Jared Goff have the upside and ability of some 2022 quarterback prospects? Potential first rounders Malik Willis out of Liberty, Spencer Rattler out of Oklahoma, and Matt Corral out of Ole Miss have looked good but not good enough to warrant a top-3 pick. Since the Lions restructured Goff’s contract resulting in his guaranteed salaries to end after 2022, the Lions would only carry a dead cap of $10 million if they were to trade/cut him in 2023, and $5 million if they trade/cut him in 2024. This structuring will allow the Lions to select their future quarterback while having the option to have them sit behind Goff for a year or two to learn.
If the Lions choose to use their lower 2022 first-round pick on a quarterback, or wait until 2023, they will have an intriguing set of players to choose from with their higher first-round pick which is projected to be top-5. With injury and uncertainty surrounding their cornerbacks, the Lions could opt for LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. or Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. to play alongside rookie corner Ifeatu Melifonwu and hopefully Jeffrey Okudah. If Detroit is to obtain the first overall pick, highly touted pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux out of Oregon would be a substantial addition to the defensive line.
The Lions main strengths are their offensive line, running backs, and tight end. Since the run game has been productive thus far, you can make the argument that they are one receiver away from having an effective and consistent offense. Once they find their receiver and if the Lions decide they are content with Jared Goff at quarterback for the time being, they should take a page out of the 2020 Panthers and use all your draft picks on defensive players. Aside from their two first-round picks in the 2022 draft, the Lions should also yield an extra third-round compensatory pick due to Kenny Golladay signing with the New York Giants last offseason. This would result in the Lions having 5 of the top 100 picks in next years draft!
The Lions are in a prime position these next two drafts with a total of four 1st-round picks and the options to either use the picks to build depth or trade them to move up or down. Similar to his first draft, Brad Holmes has shown his willingness to trade picks and won’t hesitate to strike a deal if the right one comes along. Both Holmes and Dan Campbell are determined to turn the Lions franchise around which should make their fans excited for what the future has in store.