Game-By-Game Breakdown/Predictions of the Cowboys’ 2023 Regular Season

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Dallas, Texas (PSF) - The following exercise is usually a fool's errand without being able to control for major injuries, but it is still a blast. Let’s break down the Cowboys schedule game-by-game and guess what their record will be in 2023.

Week 1 @ NYG (SNF)

Dak Prescott is the figurative (could he be the literal?) Dad of the NFC East. 27-7 in his career. 10-2 against the Giants. So-so opposing QBs have helped both stats, and there is no denying that. Speaking of, Daniel Jones won’t be able to generate enough against the defense. I have no reason to trust these Giants wide receivers against the Dallas secondary, and because of that, this one has all the makings of a disaster for Big Blue. If Eli Manning comes back for a classic Week one cameo against the Cowboys on SNF, I’ll consider picking them. In the meantime:

Cowboys: 28 

Giants: 10

RECORD: 1-0

Week 2 v. NYJ

Everything in my soul tells me to pick the Jets here. Aaron Rodgers has spited the Cowboys too many times in too many ways for me to ever feel comfortable about playing against him. The Jets defense matches up beautifully against the Cowboys offense. Sauce Gardner should be able to neutralize CeeDee Lamb. This game will come down to D.J. Reed against Brandin Cooks and Lamb in the slot, along with special teams. Give me a couple of field-position-shifting returns by Kavontae Turpin and a Greg Zuerlein miss as the difference here. Low-scoring affair.

Cowboys: 19

Jets: 17

RECORD: 2-0

Week 3 @ AZ

Be careful here and check the history of the last five games in Glendale for the Cowboys. The city has been a veritable house of horrors for them at times. The Cardinals are setting up as one of the worst teams in the league, but I can easily envision a scenario where this game goes south for the Cowboys in a wacky manner, especially if Kyler Murray can play. If he doesn’t, I still have trepidation, but expect the better team to win.

Cowboys: 42

Cardinals: 13

RECORD: 3-0

Week 4 v. NE

The Patriots are in a rough spot because of the strength of their division, but this team will be a tough out for anyone. The roster is sneaky-good throughout and Mac Jones is a steady hand at QB. Dak’s first start against Belichick went poorly (212 yards, no TDs, 1 INT), while the second was one of his best games (445 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT). Expect this to be somewhere in the middle, but for it to not be enough. 

Patriots: 20

Cowboys: 17

(OT)

RECORD: 3-1

Photo by Scott Strazzante/The Chronicle

Week 5 @ SF (SNF)

Yeah, this one will be fun for the fans (and the NFL’s ratings). I want to say that a Dak revenge game narrative is easy to visualize, but this 49ers defense is freaky-pants. After the nightmare in Santa Clara in January, I still can’t say the 49ers offense scares me, no matter who plays QB. 

Realistically (and you can say this for like 50% of NFL games…nothing of what I’m about to say is compelling), the Cowboys were a couple bounces away from heading to Philadelphia last season (hi Trevon Diggs INT drop and George Kittle tip-drill over the middle). Gimme the Cowboys to exact some semblance of revenge.

Cowboys: 24

49ers: 16

RECORD: 4-1

Week 6 @ LAC (MNF)

The little west coast excursion ends with another primetime, storyline laced game. Chargers Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore against his old employer. Moore got hired into a beautiful situation with Justin Herbert and weapons out the wazoo. I expect them to move the ball against an elite Dallas defense. I expect the Cowboys offense to be able to run the ball well here. Two offenses? Moving the ball? Did somebody say shootout? No, nobody verbalized it, but I did just write it. Give the Chargers a win at home.

Chargers: 34

Cowboys: 30 

RECORD: 4-2

Week 7 (BYE WEEK)

Week 8 v. LAR

I just realized this game will mark three California foes in a row…there is no way that happens often. In the midst of the SAG-AFTRA strike, Hollywood needs a few people to play roles in a newer film about a subpar (or over par…I’m talking like octuple bogey here) NFL defense. Luckily, one of the teams from LA looks ready to fill that role. 

Save Aaron Donald and a couple others, this Rams defense has the potential to be historically poor. They are flat-out gutted after the departure of Jalen Ramsey and a dearth of valuable draft capital. Matt Stafford, like Aaron Rodgers, seems to enjoy spiting the Cowboys when he wants to, but not even he will be able to save them here. 

Cowboys: 30

Rams: 10

RECORD: 5-2

Photo by Smiley N. Pool/Dallas Morning News

Week 9 @ PHI 

Ah, this will be fun…isn’t it always? Man, I love Philly fans. Going to a game at the Linc as an NFC East rival is easily one of the top-10 experiences you can have as an NFL fan. Good fun aside, give the reigning NFC East champs and Super Bowl runners-up their flowers. This was a great team last year that did a solid job of reloading for this year. 

Are they maybe less proven on the front-7? Sure. Does James Bradberry scare me at all as a #2 corner? No he does not. Has the safety room been downgraded a bit? I think it is fair to say. That said, it isn’t hard to envision a scenario where the Eagles buck the NFC East’s “no repeat winners since a while ago” trend. In fact, if I was a betting man, I’d say it is more likely than other scenarios. Season split incoming, but make it a funkier one than usual…Cowboys win at the Linc.

Cowboys: 26

Eagles: 21

RECORD: 6-2

Week 10 v. NYG

Random fan: “Yo, is that Eli Manning coming out of the tunnel?…oh wow it is…hi Eli! How are you? Are you ready to play the Cowboys again?”

Eli Manning: “Sorry, I’m just here to spectate and support my old franchise. Daniel should be able to get the job done.”

Cowboys: 38

Giants: 17

RECORD: 7-2

Week 11 @ CAR

The Panthers are a promising team…I like some of the weapons around Bryce Young and the defense looks like it’ll be top-15. Are they going to go to the playoffs this year? Who knows…I would assume that by this point Young will have fully entrenched himself over the “future hall of famer” Andy Dalton, but unless Young has a meteoric rise to greatness in his rookie year, this will be a win for the Cowboys. Carolina’s defense keeps them in the game.

Cowboys: 16

Panthers: 10

RECORD: 8-2

Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post

Week 12 v. WSH (Thanksgiving)

The Thanksgiving turnaround is always tough on these guys’ bodies, but I hearken back to a DNA test the Commanders took back in 2016 while being featured on the Jerry Springer show (RIP to my great Uncle [not actually]). The test results were quite frankly stunning — Rayne Dakota Prescott was the father of the franchise. 9-2 against them in his career, 19 TDs, 4 INTs. The Washington defensive line should have a bounce-back year. I’m excited to see what Sam Howell can do as he assumes the starting role. He played games with the Dallas secondary in his lone start last year. Cowboys win ugly.

Cowboys: 22

Commanders: 16

RECORD: 9-2

Week 13 v. SEA (TNF)

We stan Geno Smith here. His time at WVU was a blast to see on Sportscenter highlights. His redemption arc was one of the best stories of 2022. The Seahawks had a really good draft…more weapons for Geno and more insurance on the defensive side of things.  This should be an elite secondary. Aside from Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspooon, I like Mike Jackson and Coby Bryant as the 3rd and 4th CBs. Jamal Adams (when healthy) and Quandre Diggs are about as safe as you’ll get at the safety spot. Seahawks make enough plays offensively to win.

Seahawks: 34

Cowboys: 28

(OT)

RECORD: 9-3

Week 14 v. PHI (SNF)

Now that we’re finally at this game, recanting what was said in the week nine prediction feels appealing. A random broom just spawned and it feels like an omen. Just kidding, Philly is too good of a team. Give really good teams credit.

Eagles: 27

Cowboys: 19

RECORD: 9-4

Week 15 @BUF

Rumblings of a classic Cowboys late November/early December collapse will start about here, and they should, because they will be 9-5 after this game. Don’t worry, it will end up being moot in reference to them making the playoffs, but everything about this setup feels wrong. December in Buffalo, Josh Allen, and a super good Bills defense. I’d love to be wrong here (we’ll need to see the injury situation for both teams come this game), but let’s go Bills here.

Bills: 23

Cowboys: 14

RECORD: 9-5

Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Week 16 @ MIA

Look for the Cowboys to get back on track here. The weather should be 10x more favorable than the week prior (unless it is monsoon time in South Florida), but this will still be a fight. The speed that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle provide will be a particular issue for this secondary. The personnel in the safety room won’t be fast enough to keep up over the top the whole game, nor will the CBs. No coverage packages will be able to keep both contained the whole game. If the Dolphins score under 14 points, give Dan Quinn a statue in Dallas. Track meet on the way in this one.

Cowboys: 35

Dolphins: 30

RECORD: 10-5

Week 17 v. DET (Saturday)

You have to love what Dan Campbell is building over in Detroit. Watch for them and Chicago as surprises in the NFC. Elite offensive line, a safe QB in Jared Goff, and weapons all around him. A Motown playoff appearance feels likely this year. Still, a straight up roster-to-roster comparison here will net the obvious— the Cowboys are a better team. The defense caused Jared Goff real issues in last year’s 24-6 win, and they’ll do it again here

Cowboys: 24

Lions: 13

RECORD: 11-5

Photo by Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

Week 18 @ WSH

Similar spot as last year— you go into Washington with the division still technically alive and you are likely battling with the Eagles. Last year, Dak Prescott had what we’ll call a “District of Columbia Fiasco” that slammed the door shut even if the Eagles had lost. Whether you are locked into a playoff seed or not, Mike McCarthy has shown he will play his guys in Week 18. If Dak plays, he won’t have one of the worst games of his career like the year prior, and the Cowboys end the regular season on a high note.

Cowboys: 29

Commanders: 16

FINAL REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 12-5