Sturniolo’s “Win Now” Mock Draft
Chad Reuter of NFL.com recently posted an article where he posited the idea for a “Win Now Draft”, a redo of the NFL Draft where every player currently available in the league was up for grabs. I really like that idea, so let’s go through it on my end. For context, we’ll be using the 2023 NFL Draft order, but undoing all previous draft trades, every team has one pick per round, based on their ranking and record from last season. We’ll only be going through the first round of this draft, but Reuter’s article goes through a whole seven rounds, snake draft style. Let’s get started.
Chicago Bears - Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
Reuter’s Pick - Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
Mahomes is the best player in the NFL currently, and he has led his team to three Super Bowls in four years, winning two of them. In his time as a starter, the earliest Mahomes has been eliminated from the playoffs is in the AFC Championship. Additionally, he has two MVPs to his name, and is a perennial contender for the league’s passing crown, no matter his situation.
2. Houston Texans - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Reuter’s Pick - Joe Burrow, QB, Louisiana State
Okay, this is the first diversion from the path here. With the obvious first overall pick off of the board, we can start to diversify and think about scheme fit. With the way Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans wants to run his offense, he favors a rushing-based attack with the ability for heroic passing and air-raid when it comes down to it. Josh Allen’s physical traits and ability to fit that is what puts him over Burrow for me.
3. Arizona Cardinals - Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
Reuter’s Pick - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Again, we’re looking more at scheme fit and what the Cardinals can run an offense with. Hurts has familiarity with new Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon, and has been prepared by him to play a lot of diversified yet lethal defenses. That kind of trial by fire in practice will be able to keep Hurts at the top of his game, while also keeping him in a weak NFC.
4. Indianapolis Colts - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Reuter’s Pick - Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
What would the Colts do with a hard reset and the opportunity for a second chance with Andrew Luck? This kind of scenario is their chance to see what happens in that scenario.
5. Denver Broncos - Joe Burrow, QB, Louisiana State
Reuter’s Pick - Aaron Rodgers, QB, California
The Broncos will gladly pounce on a tumbling Burrow here. They get a quarterback that can help run their offense in a more Sean Payton style, while also having more than just a game manager’s ability at the quarterback position.
6. Los Angeles Rams - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Reuter’s Pick - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
This is the kind of player that is a tone-setter for what a team is going to look like for the future, a run-heavy offense with quarterback runs involved, led by a strong offensive line and stout defense. Jackson paired with Sean McVay would open up McVay’s creativity and his playbook to run pretty much whatever he wants, as Jackson can easily do it all on that offense.
7. Las Vegas Raiders - Aaron Rodgers, QB, California
Reuter’s Pick - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Oh, the tumultuous tale of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers goes to a system that can very easily conform to his playstyle and account for his age as well. The Raiders here think they can pull some talent and production out of Rodgers’ last couple of years, so he gets picked here.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Reuter’s Pick - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
This pick makes sense for Arthur Smith’s offense: He wants someone who can easily make plays and distribute the ball, but who can also escape the pocket and make something happen if a coverage breaks down. Herbert accounts for both of those traits, and is elite in both of them, having to do so in LA.
9. Carolina Panthers - Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Reuter’s Pick - Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
Gasp! Our first non-quarterback comes off the board. With the way things are looking, all of the top-tier and even second-tier quarterbacks have come off the board, and it’s a bit of a step down before starting to get value for the position again. That’s why Carolina pounces on the top talent at one of the next highest positions of value, pass rush. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will do nicely in that department.
10. New Orleans Saints - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Reuter’s Pick - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
This pick makes nothing but sense. The Saints under Dennis Allen have fielded teams that rely on their defense to win games, so getting one of the defensive greats of all time is something that has to be recognized and valued on this kind of board.
11. Tennessee Titans - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Reuter’s Pick - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The other position of value one must think about is protection of the quarterback. Trent Williams, even going into his age 35 season, is still the best offensive tackle in the league, so locking down protection before putting someone behind that protection is a priority for the Titans.
12. Cleveland Browns - Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
Reuter’s Pick - Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
This is the Browns we’re talking about here, they’re going to secure quarterback before anything else.
13. New York Jets - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Reuter’s Pick - Tyreek Hill, WR, West Alabama
The Jets are also going to be a team looking to lock down a quarterback, and they put their trust in a developing Justin Fields to do that.
14. New England Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Pennsylvania State
Reuter’s Pick - Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Bill Belichick gets his defensive star, a do-it-all, middle of the field quarterback of his defense, who can shift pretty much anywhere and be a huge threat to offenses around the league.
15. Green Bay Packers - Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Reuter’s Pick - Micah Parsons, LB, Pennsylvania State
The Packers love themselves a good cornerback. Gardner is likely the best in the league at that position right now, and with no other pick jumping out at them from the board at the current moment, they take their swing here.
16. Washington Commanders - Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Reuter’s Pick - Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
The Commanders base their entire team around their defensive line, so getting one of the best at the position if that’s still the philosophy is the best move here.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - TJ Watt, LB, Wisconsin
Reuter’s Pick - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Watt has been the engine to the Steelers’ defense since he was drafted. Given the chance, they’re going to keep him in Pittsburgh.
18. Detroit Lions - Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati
Reuter’s Pick - Justin Jefferson, WR, Louisiana State
This pick is going to be an offensive weapon, no matter how you slice it, the question is who? Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Travis Kelce are all on the board. I went for Kelce because of his proven production at a position with a bit more rarity when it comes to production; it’s going to be hard to find someone like Kelce later in this hypothetical draft, so the Lions just take him here.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Justin Jefferson, WR, Louisiana State
Reuter’s Pick - Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
I don’t love the way picking quarterback looks at this stage of the first round, with a couple of exceptions. This is not one of them. Jefferson will produce, no matter how low the ceiling of his quarterback is.
20. Seattle Seahawks - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Reuter’s Pick - Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cinncinnati
A shocker here, yes. This is very early for Geno to go, but given the massive improvements he made last season in Seattle, they will do a lot to make sure he’s still with them. Geno is the perfect quarterback to run that system, so getting him is a top priority.
21. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Reuter’s Pick - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Mike McDaniel works best when he’s with Tua, and Tua works best with Mike McDaniel. Easy pick up here.
22. Los Angeles Chargers - Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
Reuter’s Pick - Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
The best route runner in the league gives the Chargers another elite weapon for the foreseeable future, especially with the quarterbacks not looking fantastic on this state of the board.
23. Baltimore Ravens - Fred Warner, LB, Brigham Young
Reuter’s Pick - Ja’Marr Chase, WR Louisiana State
The Ravens have always excelled when their defense is powered by a middle-of-the-field defensive quarterback, and there’s none better in the league right now than Fred Warner.
24. Minnesota Vikings - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Louisiana State
Reuter’s Pick - Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati
Burrow and Chase won’t get so lucky as to be on the same team together once again, as they are split up here. Minnesota gets an elite weapon to build around.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Reuter’s Pick - Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
The Jags will definitely need a quarterback if they are to contend in a new-look AFC with the same coaches, and Watson is the best remaining on the board. After a third of a season back in the saddle, they will trust that Watson returns to his previous form here.
26. New York Giants - Tyreek Hill, WR, West Alabama
Reuter’s Pick - AJ Brown, WR, Mississippi
Getting the best receiver left on the board is what the Giants need to build around with an offensive-minded head coach.
27. Dallas Cowboys - AJ Brown, WR, Mississippi
Reuter’s Pick - Stefon Diggs, WR, Maryland
The Cowboys are always ones to look for the flashiest pick, and the best weapon on the board at this point is Brown.
28. Buffalo Bills - Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Reuter’s Pick - TJ Watt, LB, Wisconsin
The Bills struggled the most last season without a running game, so they get themselves a player that can take both a running back’s role and a receiver’s role.
29. Cincinnati Bengals - Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
Reuter’s Pick - Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
The Bengals were near the bottom of the league in sacks last season. Let’s take someone that had 15.5 sacks last season.
30. San Francisco 49ers - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Reuter’s Pick - Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin
This is a big swing, but imagine Kyle Shanahan’s offense with Bijan Robinson’s abilities in town.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington
Reuter’s Pick - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The Eagles have thrived in the past couple of seasons having their big weapon in AJ Brown, so being able to get another big-time weapon to utilize in Nick Sirianni’s offense is big for them.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Reuter’s Pick - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Everything starts at quarterback, and this is the closest player Andy Reid can find at this point of the draft to match the talent and capabilities of Patrick Mahomes.
