These last two weeks in the NFL have given bettors hell. Upsets have been prevalent recently and in turn that has made Vegas some pretty good money. But fear not, a new game slate gives everyone a sigh of relief and a fresh start. The ultimate goal is to take some of that money back this week and put it into our own pockets.

Primetime Games

Thursday Night Football- New England (-7) at Atlanta

This game has the biggest point discrepancy this week in terms of week 10 point differential for these two teams. The Patriots obliterated the Browns in Foxborough by a score of 45-7. Much like the Falcons bout with the Cowboys, this game seemed to be over before halftime. This Patriots defense is coming to form, and they have only allowed a total of 37 points in their last three games. I expect this trend to continue against a Falcons team who will not be able to establish the run game. Additionally, Atlanta most likely will be without their top skill position guy Cordarelle Patterson due to a sprained ankle.

My pick: Patriots (-7), 7 seems to be a lot to cover in primetime games this year so a money line bet would not be a bad idea either.

Sunday Night Football- L.A. Chargers (-5.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers

We never know what to expect with either of these teams. The Chargers offense seems to falter every other week and that trend continued last week, only putting up 20 points against an average rated Vikings defense. On the other side, the Steelers tied with the 0-8 Detroit Lions in a game where they were favored by a touchdown. That game was hideous to watch and I do not expect this matchup to be much different. This is a must win game for both teams, but I expect the front seven for the Steelers to stifle the Chargers for most of this game. I am not confident the Steelers will win but I think asking the Chargers to win by basically a touchdown is a tough task.

My pick: Steelers (+5.5)

Monday Night Football: Tampa Bay (-11) vs New York Giants

Two losses in a row to sub par teams for “Tom”pa Bay against the Saints and Washington. Is this a trend worth jumping on or an outlier? The last time these teams faced off was another primetime game where the Bucs squeaked out a two point victory. I expect this game to be just as close as I do not trust this Bucs secondary to stop anyone from throwing the ball all over the field. I am terrified of betting on the side of Daniel Jones instead of the GOAT himself, but until this Bucs defense starts playing to it’s potential, no one can be written off just yet.

My pick: Giants (+11), Giants moneyline isn’t a bad tease in a parlay if you want to swing the odds.

Sunday Slate

Buffalo (-7) vs Indy

Buffalo’s recent history shows that they beat up on terrible teams and play down to average team’s skill levels. This Colts team seems to slightly improve every week and since week 3, they have yet to lose a game by more than 6 points. I trust this running game to keep Josh Allen and the expolsive Bills off the field just enough to cover.

My pick: Indy (+7)

Baltimore (-4.5) vs Chicago

Lets pump the brakes on the “Ravens are done!” hype train. Yes, they lost to the Dolphins, but this was on a very short week where they seemed to be fighting back right from the start. I think that Bears O-line will struggle to hold up and I fully expect the Ravens to bounce back this week in Chicago with a commanding victory. I trust Lamar to do what he does best.

My pick: Baltimore (-4.5)

Browns (-11.5) vs Detroit

The Browns looked simply awful last week. Baker Mayfield doesn’t look right with that shoulder injury that he has been nursing, and I find it hard to believe this will be a blowout victory. They get an easy (on paper) game against the worst team in the NFL this week, so if they were going to bounce back this year, this has to be the week. Although the Lions have a 0 in the win column this week, they play hard and they showed the Steelers last week that you can’t take them for a joke. For all intents and purposes, this is a MUST WIN game for Cleveland. I do think Cleveland will win this game in regulation, however I do not think they can trounce this Lions team by 12 or more points.

My pick: Detroit (+11.5)

Tennessee (-10) vs Houston

The loss of Derrick Henry really hasn’t hindered this Titans offense. They’re sitting at 8-2 with a 3 game lead and they are rolling. A few states south, Houston are in bad company with the Lions as one of the worst all around teams in the league this year. I think the 10 point spread is pretty generous to a Texans team that has put up double digit points in only 4 games this year. I’m sticking with the Titans in this one, sorry Houston.

My pick: Titans (-10)

Green Bay (-2) at Minnesota

The Vikings, like the Chargers this year, are so hard to bet on. It seems when you bet for them, you lose money, but when you bet against them, they also lose you money! This game could go either way, and that’s represented well by the spread which is less than a field goal. Aaron Rodgers looked bad last week against Seattle, and the Vikings defense offers up a little easier of a matchup for the signal caller. However, Aaron Jones looks poised to miss this game and I think that has some big implication for struggles on the offensive side of the ball for Green Bay. Give me the Vikings in this one against the injury riddled pack solely based on continuing their momentum from the victory against the Chargers last week.

My pick: ML Vikings

Miami (-3) vs New York Jets

The Dolphins win against the Ravens on Thursday night last week was ugly. They completely eliminated the threat of any run from the Ravens in that one and honestly controlled the game for most of it. They will not blow you away with offensive prowess, but I think that defense has shown signs of life in the last few weeks. I expect this to be a slug fest but I trust Tua a little bit more than any Jet they put behind center in this one.

My pick: Miami (-3)

Philly (-1.5) vs New Orleans

The Saints were a 2 point conversion away from going to overtime against the 8-2 Titans last week and they were in it for the entirety of the game mostly due to that stout defensive front. The Eagles have struggled in games where their run game is inefficient and I think this is the toughest defensive front they’ve played in the last few weeks. I like Jalen Hurts but I expect him to struggle in this one.

My pick: New Orleans (+1.5)

Carolina (-3.5) vs Washington

Washington put together a 10 minute drive at the end of their Bucs game to put that one to bed in an impressive way. If you can run the ball that well, odds are you will win a high percentage of games. So why does the Football Team have a losing record this year? Because they are inconsistent. Heinicke doesn’t show up to play every game and he struggles against middle to top tier secondaries. I think Carolina, regardless of who is under center, continues their winning streak convincingly.

My pick: Carolina (-3.5)

San Francisco (-6) vs Jaguars

The Niners are in full focus mode being in the gauntlet that is the NFC West. They handed it to the Rams on Monday night last week, and I think this team finally has some identity to them. Kyle Shanahan coached a masterclass last week and it absolutely needs to continue for them to have a chance at making the playoffs this year. Although I do not like the 6 point line against a stingy Jags team, I fully trust they will come out with a win in a must win game for them.

My pick: ML 49ers

Cincinnati (-1) vs Las Vegas

Las Vegas suffered a bad loss to the Chiefs last week but they are playing the Bengals who suffered bad losses to the Browns and the Jets preceding their week 10 bye week. The Bengals showed signs of real promise early on in the year but those high expectations have tapered off dramatically of recent. When your defense gives up 34 points to a Jets team led by Mike White, you know you are in trouble. I think the Raiders loss Sunday night spoke more to the Chiefs revival and less to the Raiders incompetence. I expect Cincy to come out a little sluggish and struggle to come back in this one. I trust Derek Carr over Joe Burrow in this game.

My pick: Vegas (+1)

KC (-2.5) vs Dallas

Both of these teams put on impressive displays last week and this should no doubt be the game of the week. It seems a little disrespectful to the Cowboys, who are in control of the NFC at the moment, to put them as underdogs for this one, but how can you blame anyone for falling back in love with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. I expect this game to be a painfully close shootout and could offer up some intel on if either of these teams are real Super Bowl threats this year. With the return of Michael Gallup, Dallas seems to be humming loudly on offense and I actually trust this offense more than Kansas City’s. Give me Dallas for this one, but this is where I expect to be wrong whichever way I choose.

My pick: ML Cowboys

Arizona (-2.5) vs Seattle

The return of Russel Wilson was anti climactic as he looked totally outmatched in that matchup with the Packers. I don’t expect this trend to continue as he is a top 3 quarterback in the league when fully healthy so lets just chalk that one up as knocking all the rust off. Arizona needs Kyler Murray back and if he is a go I like them in this one because I think they simply have a deeper and more talented locker room than Seattle has nowadays. The Rams have crept back into a game behind the Cards and they will want to do everything they can to lengthen that gap between their rival. The Seahawks are nearly out of playoff contention and it seems as though the writing is on the wall for Russel Wilson’s soon departure so I will take the Cards for this matchup.

My pick: Cards (-2.5)

Check back in next week where I will go over where I missed and where I hit. Good luck to everyone who bets on any game this week in the NFL.