Denver, Colorado (PSF) - At the time, March 8, 2022 was billed as one of the biggest days in the history of the Denver Broncos. Russell Wilson arrived in Denver without warning, and his impact was felt immediately. The jerseys flew off the shelves. Season tickets were bought en masse. Adam Schefter called the Russell Wilson trade “one of the biggest in NFL history.” For the first time since Peyton Manning’s retirement, there was legitimate faith that the Denver Broncos were ready to compete for another Super Bowl.

A year and a half later, the conversation couldn’t be more different. Wilson is now fighting to save his career, and instead of following up a playoff run, the 2023 Broncos are coming off one of the most unsuccessful years in team history. After starting last season with the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl, the Broncos instead finished with a dismal 5-12 record. To have such a disappointing year was painful enough in its own right, but the most concerning part of the Broncos nightmare season was the play of their franchise quarterback.

To understand just how horrific Russell Wilson’s 2022 was, one has to look beyond the field. Wilson’s year contained a wide array of failed experiments and embarrassments outside of football. First there was the dangerwich. Then the bathroom saga. Then the high knees on the plane. He did get a massive contract extension from Denver before the season- but said contract has led to Wilson receiving even more slander. The off the field debacles, combined with his subpar play, made Wilson low hanging fruit for NFL fans and players The low point of Wilson’s 2022 campaign may have come when the Ravens- a team that would later beat the Broncos- took shots at Wilson for exercising on the team’s flight to London.

That said, Wilson’s play between the white lines is much more of a concern for the Broncos and their fans than anything else. It was far and away Wilson’s worst season thus far, and he looked nothing like the future Hall-of-Famer who redefined the quarterback position in Seattle. Among qualified QBs, Wilson was 30th in completion percentage, 20th in touchdown passes, 27th in QBR, and took 55 sacks to go with 11 interceptions. It was most certainly Wilson’s Annus Horribilis, but his play requires some critical context. First and foremost, he dealt with some rather serious injuries last season, including a hamstring injury and a concussion that cost him one game each. He also played through a shoulder injury that many Broncos fans have pointed to as a potential explanation for his inaccuracy. Russell Wilson’s 2022 also cannot be examined without discussion of his coaching staff. The Nathaniel Hackett hire was an unmitigated disaster for Denver, and despite his reputation as a bright offensive mind, his offense was disheveled and did not put any player in a position to succeed. Many of Wilson’s issues last year were independent of scheme and purely personal, but no quarterback could have succeeded in the 2022 Broncos offense. 

Enter Sean Payton. 

The Broncos have replaced Hackett with one of the most respected offensive minds in NFL history in the former Saints coach. Payton’s path to Denver was certainly not a streamlined one, with rumors that his interview was mediocre and he wasn’t Denver’s first choice. Regardless of what the hiring process for Payton looked like, the Broncos lie in his hands now. That means that the schematic issues of last year won’t be a problem this season, and Payton has had no problems installing his culture and philosophy so far. Payton was brought in to do two things: Win some games, and fix Russell Wilson. Given Payton’s history of offensive success and Wilson’s offseason work and health, Broncos fans seem to feel pretty good about their new coach’s odds of accomplishing those goals. 

But if he doesn’t?

Well, then Denver has some decisions to make.

When Russell Wilson came to Denver, the fan response wasn’t as extreme and joyous as it was simply because of Wilson’s reputation or because of how good the team looked on paper. Broncos fans were ecstatic for Wilson because his arrival seemed to signal the end of a horrifying era of Quarterback Mediocrity for the Broncos. Now of course, the Broncos struggles in the post-Peyton Manning era don’t hold a candle to the likes of the post-relocation Browns or essentially the entire history of the Jacksonville Jaguars. But when put under a microscope, the last seven years of Broncos quarterbacking certainly qualifies as one of the worst stretches in modern football history.

Funny enough, the carousel started with Mark Sanchez in 2016. After the Super Bowl victory and Peyton Manning’s retirement, it seemed all but certain that Brock Osweiler, who had spent the last four years in Denver as a backup and spot starter, was going to re-sign with the Broncos and become their next starting quarterback. He had played very admirably the year prior when Manning missed time due to injury, and looked ready to take the next step towards stardom in Denver. Instead, the Broncos were blindsided when he signed a deal to become the franchise quarterback of the Houston Texans. Denver had to pivot to find their next quarterback, and signed the veteran Sanchez. In April of that year Denver made their true move for their franchise quarterback, and traded up in the first round of the draft to select Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch. Lynch was described as a “project” by analysts, and was expected to essentially redshirt his rookie year to develop and learn. This set up a quarterback competition between Sanchez and 2015 seventh-rounder Trevor Siemian. Siemian shockingly won that competition in preseason, and proceeded to play decent football that season. It wasn’t enough however, and the Broncos followed up their super bowl victory by finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs. It was a disappointing start to the post-manning era, but most Broncos fans weren’t worried about the immediate future of the team; Lynch was waiting in the wings, ready to take the reins the next year and become the franchise’s next young star quarterback. 

Lynch instead became the single biggest bust in Broncos history. He came out of Memphis billed as an exciting dual threat talent with a rocket launcher for a right arm, who needed time to develop his accuracy and feel for the game. Those things simply never occurred, and Lynch never came anywhere close to reaching his ceiling. Lynch lost a controversial quarterback battle with Siemian in 2017, and in the games he did play, he looked dreadful. The Broncos had one of their worst seasons in history that year, and Lynch would be cut after the 2018 preseason. 

After the disaster of 2017, the Broncos turned to the veteran market to solve their quarterback woes. In 2018 they signed journeyman Case Keenum, who was coming off a career year in Minnesota, to be their next starter. Keenum played relatively well that year, but it wasn’t enough to elevate a team with severe coaching issues and a declining roster, and the Broncos again floundered to a bottom-ten finish. Keenum was replaced again after that season when the Broncos traded for Joe Flacco in March 2019, and it looked like the Broncos were headed for another season of middling veteran QB play.

Then along came Drew Lock. The Broncos took Lock in the second round of the 2019 draft, and he didn’t enter his rookie season with much expectation. The consensus on Lock was that he had very good arm talent and playmaking ability, but needed time to develop. He wouldn’t play until week 12, when the Broncos had already fallen out of the playoff chase, but those last five games had Broncos fans convinced he was the savior they waited for.  He electrified fans with his arm strength, dazzled with his off-script skills, and immediately endeared himself to Broncos Country with his personality.

Going into 2020, Broncos fans were certain Lock was ready to ascend to stardom. Even with a complicated, pandemic-altered preseason, the expectations for Lock and his Broncos were extremely high. But it wasn’t meant to be. Lock had a painfully mediocre 2020 season, with as many bad moments as good ones. That Broncos team was devastated by injuries, and they once again found themselves with a top ten pick in the draft. Denver decided not to draft a quarterback with said pick, and instead went into 2021 with Lock and newcomer Teddy Bridgewater competing for the starting job. Bridgewater won said job, and once again, Denver’s dreams of having a franchise quarterback were shattered. Lock would only play that year in a backup role, only when the Broncos were completely out of the playoff race. That six game stretch in 2019 had proven to be Lock’s peak, and that offseason, he would be packaged in a trade for one Russell Wilson. 

The last seven years of Broncos football have been marred by losses, letdowns, busts and wasted talent. But it’s only when you read between the lines and dabble in hypotheticals that this era becomes truly painful. For example, it has long been rumored by Broncos media that if Denver didn’t outbid Dallas to trade up for Paxton Lynch, their fallback plan was to draft Dak Prescott, who has been a star in the NFL since his rookie year- for the team who wanted to jump Denver for Lynch. Furthermore, Denver didn’t prioritize quarterback in the 2017 draft because they believed they had their franchise talent on the roster in Lynch. If that wasn’t the case, they may have traded up to land one of the talents in that class. After all, that was the year that their division rival Chiefs- who had a lower pick than the Broncos- traded up to land Patrick Mahomes. Ouch.

The Paxton Lynch pick and it’s repercussions are just the tip of the iceberg. In 2018, Denver passed up the opportunity to draft Josh Allen. In 2020, thinking Lock was their future, they passed on Jalen Hurts. The amount of mistakes that the Denver Broncos have made over the last few years are enough to drive any football fan mad, let alone a fanbase that has known almost nothing but success for the last 40+ years. Russell Wilson was acquired to end this madness. He was brought in to stop the ever-running Broncos quarterback carousel. He was supposed to be the one to save the team from any more mediocrity at the game’s most important position. But the irony is, unless he plays like the player he once was, he could be the very reason that cycle continues. 

The 2024 NFL draft is a long time away, and a lot can change in eight months. But as it stands today, essentially every draft analyst agrees that this class contains two potential franchise quarterbacks, who are both likely to go very high in the first round. USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye have been compared to Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, respectively, and are seen as surefire NFL stars. They are the reason that there are only two sufficient outcomes for the 2023 Broncos: Ascend back to contention behind a rejuvenated Russell Wilson, or flounder to the point where they can draft one of Williams or Maye. It’s a harsh reality, but a reality nonetheless. Anything between these two outcomes is unacceptable because it leads to more of the same. In any instance where the Broncos improve on their 2022 season but don’t look like Super Bowl contenders, then they are stuck with a quarterback who could not make them a true threat and is likely to decline from that point forward, being on the wrong side of 35. If Wilson is bad enough that the Broncos must move on, but the team finishes with only a mediocre record, they likely are going back to looking for veteran stopgaps at QB instead of getting game-changing talents at the top of the draft. The Broncos have exhausted practically every option at QB over the last seven years. They’ve drafted developmental prospects. They’ve signed established veterans. They've traded for disgruntled superstars. If Wilson isn’t the answer, then the only option left for Denver is the nuclear option. There’s no sure thing in football, but a young, highly touted quarterback prospect is the only route Denver has not gone in this era. That has to be the next step.

But perhaps none of that matters. Perhaps Wilson recaptures that magic he had in Seattle, and leads the Broncos to the promised land. That’s certainly the happiest scenario for Denver, given how much the Broncos will be paying him whether or not he’s on the team for the next few years. But Wilson hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt, and Sean Payton will not give him a long leash if he isn’t up to par. He must show that he is who this franchise thought he was, and he must be the reason that they win games this year. In the event that doesn’t happen, the team will once again have to go back to the drawing board. It truly is all or nothing for these Broncos; Whether it is the former or the latter rests entirely in the hands of number 3.