October was a tumultuous month in Broncos country. It began with a close, yet very distressing win against Chicago. That game was followed by Denver’s embarrassment against the Jets and a loss in Kansas City that pushed the Broncos’ losing streak against the Chiefs to sixteen. The season, rightfully, seemed to have gone down the toilet. The Broncos looked primed for a fire sale at the deadline. There was chatter that the Sean Payton era in Denver might only last one year.

Fast forward to November, and the conversation around the Broncos has done a complete 180. The Broncos followed up their stretch of futility with back-to-back home victories, including a win against the Chiefs that brought that dreaded streak to an end. The defense looks like a completely different unit, the offense looks to be finding their footing, and fans in Denver have regained faith in their Broncos. So much faith, in fact, that fans believe that this team is ready to make a playoff run. The Broncos themselves seem to feel the same way, given the fact that they didn’t sell off a single player at the trade deadline.

So, at 3-5, can the Broncos really shock the world and grab a playoff spot?

Well, nothing is impossible, but it’s going to be harder than fans seem to think it will. When Broncos fans argue that the team can make a playoff push, they point to the seemingly weak upcoming schedule for Denver. The team’s next opponents include the Bills, Vikings, Browns, Texans, Lions and Patriots, in addition to two meetings with the Chargers and a regular season finale against the Raiders. On the surface, a lot of those teams have pretty glaring flaws. The Bills are having a disappointing season and just lost to Cincinnati, the Vikings have lost Kirk Cousins for the year, the Browns have offensive struggles, the Texans are extremely young, and the Patriots are a certifiable dumpster all around. As far as the divisional rivals go, LA still looks to be a team without an identity and have been hit hard by injuries, and Las Vegas just fired their head coach and GM. Easy money for Denver, right?

Not quite. For as many flaws as Denver’s remaining opponents have, the upcoming schedule certainly isn’t a cakewalk. The Bills are still really good and are coming off a loss to another really good team, the Bengals. Denver will certainly get their best punch. Minnesota is without their Pro Bowl QB, but Josh Dobbs just stepped in and did that(link), so they aren’t lying down by any means. Not to mention, Justin Jefferson may well be back for that game. People may see the Texans as a doormat given how poorly their last few years have gone, but they’re playing good team football and CJ Stroud is playing like a pro bowler. The Browns have an elite defense, the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL, the Chargers still have Justin Herbert and the Raiders just got a massive morale boost with a win in Antonio Pierce’s first game as interim HC. The point I’m trying to make here is that while Denver has emerged from the worst part of their schedule in better shape than expected, the drop in difficulty from here on out is not nearly as steep as some people seem to believe.

That said, if you really believe in these Broncos to complete their turnaround and get to the postseason, it’s not because you believe in the weakness of their opponents; It’s because you believe in the Broncos. There’s certainly reason to do so. The Broncos’ much-maligned defense has been very impressive these last few weeks, holding the Chiefs to a combined 28 points in their two meetings while holding the Packers under 20 as well. The turnaround has been so impressive that some are throwing around the E-word in regards to that unit.

Of course, it’s important not to get too high on the new-look defense. This IS still the same squad that got 70-balled by Miami, after all. Two good performances against the most potent offense in football are plenty exciting, but Green Bay is squarely in the argument for the worst offense in the league. It’s a really good stretch, but the sample size is so small that it’s hard to guarantee future success. 

The same general idea extends to Denver’s offense. Denver has had moments of brilliance at points this season, like the first half against Washington and portions of the GB game. The last KC game, as a 24-point outing, seems like it should also fit into that category, but last week’s game also outlines the biggest problem with Denver’s offense. Denver had some big plays and had an all-together really good day on the ground, but this was Russell Wilson’s pass chart on the day:

No, you did not miscount. That is a total of FIVE pass attempts beyond the line of scrimmage. That doesn’t mean Russell Wilson is a bad quarterback, or that the team doesn’t have any faith in him. The problem is that while this game yielded one of Denver’s best offensive outputs of the year, the methods with which they got there simply aren't sustainable. This type of game plan won’t fly against the Bills. It sure as hell won’t fly against the Browns. Denver has had some success with the passing game this season, but it has been maddeningly inconsistent. They have to not only emphasize their improving run game but also find some balance with their aerial attack.

The last few paragraphs probably sound like I’m completely out on the Broncos making the postseason. This isn’t the case. As I said, their upcoming opponents have some serious flaws and the Broncos have improved their play in several key areas. We wouldn’t be having this discussion if there wasn’t a legitimate pathway to the playoffs for Denver. What I’m saying is that while this isn’t impossible, it will be very difficult, and a lot has to go right for the Broncos to pull this off. A 1-5 hole is called a hole for a reason. Digging yourself out of that hole to get to the playoffs is something that very, very few teams have done before. 

But the biggest thing the Broncos have on their side is belief in themselves. When they sat at 1-5, with the season looking lost and trade rumors swirling, the team could have succumbed to negativity and given up. Instead, they rallied around each other and fought nail and tooth to stack wins. They just snapped a 16-game losing streak to their biggest rivals. The momentum is behind them, and they created that momentum by themselves. If they can prove that the last few weeks weren’t a fluke, then this team has a runway to do something historic.