Can Anyone Win This Division? AFC East Predictions
Photo Courtesy: Mark Konezny, USA TODAY
In the 2023-24 season, the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills had the division crown on the line for the AFC East in Week 18. The starts of these two teams seasons could not have been more different as the Bills were 6-6 going into Week 13 while the Dolphins were 9-3. Down the stretch, however, the records flip-flopped, culminating in a 21-14 win for the Bills in the final game of the regular season and taking home the AFC East title.
While last year’s dramatics were certainly spectacular, there is a strong possibility the 2024-25 season will produce even more fireworks. Whether it is the return of an old veteran in Aaron Rodgers or a fresh-faced rookie in Drake Maye, Tua Tagovailoa becoming one of the highest-paid players int the entire league or Josh Allen marching for that elusive MVP title, the AFC East will have storylines all throughout the division.
Is it even possible to rank these teams at this point given so many changes and uncertainty? Well, it may not be, but we’re sure going to try!
1. Miami Dolphins| 2023-24 Record: 11-6| 2024-25 Prediction: 11-6
Photo Courtesy: Sportingnews.com
As mentioned previously, the Dolphins had quite tumble down the stretch, losing three out of their last five games and handing the division crown over to the Bills. To make matters worse, this loss meant that Miami had to travel to Kansas City to play in freezing temperatures in one of the most hostile environments the NFL has to offer. Not exactly ideal for a team from the sunshine state.
With that finale in mind, there was one main focus for the Dolphins this offseason: what should they do with Tua? That question was answered as the team opted to give their franchise QB a 4-year, $212.4 million extension. With that matter of business settled, the Dolphins are in a much better position to focus on the 2024 season without any potential distractions.
Mike McDaniel has created one of the top offenses in the NFL, thanks largely in part to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. A nice surprise last year was the breakout of running back De’Von Achane alongside the continued rise of RB Raheem Mostert. This one-two punch out of the backfield, alongside two top WR targets, has allowed the McDaniel to implement plenty of pre-snap motion and give the offense an advantage over the defense. Issues may arise if the offense is unable to have the offensive linemen stay healthy. Additionally, the Dolphins do not have the best outlook for the WR3 slot. Although Odell Beckham Jr. has been dominant before, he is no longer the player he once was. Luckily for Miami, they just need him to take some pressure off and make enough big plays to keep the offense moving.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins are in a similar situation where their defense will be solid enough, as long as there are no injuries. With uncertainty around defensive ends Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips’ health already, however, there’s reason for concern, which is largely why I am giving them the same record as last year.
2. Buffalo Bills | 2023-24 Record: 11-6 | 2024-25 Prediction: 10-7
Photo Courtesy: NFL.com
The Bills proved to be a team of resilience last season. With the production of Stefon Diggs falling off, a mediocre record over halfway through the season, and firing their offensive coordinator midseason, there was reason to believe the Bills were dead in the water. Then, miraculously, they turned their season around and rattled off 5 straight wins to end the season. To be honest, if not for the Kansas City Chiefs finding themselves similarly, the Bills may have been the AFC representative in the Super Bowl.
The Bills are returning many players and will finally have a chance to be healthy this season. With Josh Allen at QB, this team will always be competitive and have the potential to make the Super Bowl. With young TE Dalton Kincaid, alongside Dawson Knox, second-round pick in this year’s draft WR Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and the possibility for veterans like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Curtis Samuel to deliver promising games, the offense has shaped up decently following the loss of Stefon Diggs.
Defensively, the return of Matt Milano will be paramount to the success on that side of the ball. Ed Oliver has been a consistent force on the defensive line, and his presence alone can create double teams, leading the way for some other gap to be exploited.
The defense is not completely solid, and it was clear last year that when some injuries racked up, things really got out of hand. I will continue to believe in Josh Allen’s ability to lead this team, but I do not see them winning the AFC East again.
3. New York Jets | 2023-24 Record: 7-10 | 2024-25 Prediction: 9-8
Photo Courtesy: Michael Owens, Getty Images
The New York Jets were one of the biggest disasters last season, following an offseason of promise following the Aaron Rodgers acquisition. When Rodgers went down just seconds into the first game of the regular season, however, expectations were tapered. Former number two overall pick Zach Wilson continued the disappointing start to his career and was eventually replaced by Tim Boyle, a QB who only started a handful of games in college. Breece Hall put up over 1500 yards of total offense, but outside himself and WR Garrett Wilson, this offense was practically unwatchable.
The defense was the saving grace of this team. With studs at every level including Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, Jermaine Johnson and Sauce Gardner just to name a few, this defense held down the fort. The defense allowed under 300 yards of total offense a game on average, while holding teams below 20 in nearly a third of their games, and they still only came out with a 7-10 record overall.
This team continues to be a QB away from being something potentially dominant. With Rodgers returning (and one of the best signings of the offseason in backup QB Tyrod Taylor) this season that is certainly a possibility, however I am a bit skeptical still. I still gave the team a few more wins and I think they’ll be able to get some tiebreakers to go their way potentially giving them the number seven seed in the playoffs, but I do not see them as a legitimate contender yet, mainly because it is hard to trust a 40-year-old QB coming off an Achilles tear.
4. New England Patriots | 2023-24 Record: 4-13 | 2024-25 Record Prediction 6-11
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The New England Patriots have had quite the fall from grace since Tom Brady left the organization in 2019. Even with one of the best coaches and minds this game has ever seen, the Patriots could not find their way in 2023 and cut ties with Bill Belichick this offseason. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were a mess, the WR room is abysmal, the offensive line is gross, the list goes on and on. There was not much of anything to like on this team offensively last year.
For the 2024 season, the offensive stink remains much of the same. Rhamondre Stevenson is a solid RB, Cole Strange has turned out to be a good offensive lineman and Hunter Henry has finally developed into a serviceable tight end. However, the team’s top WR options are Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster and second-round pick Ja’Lynn Polk. There’s really not a lot to be enjoyed there.
The big shiny name coming into this offense is QB Drake Maye out of North Carolina. Taken with the third overall pick, Maye comes into a situation where he can learn behind longtime journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett. This situation should be fortunate for Maye, who I still expect to take over starter duties by midseason.
Defense, similarly to the Jets, is where this team finds its strengths and reason to watch. Matthew Judon continues to be a dominant force in the LB position, Jabrill Peppers has developed into a top safety in the league and Christian Gonzalez will be back healthy after starting a dominant rookie season at CB before getting injured.
This team may not be anything special, but I am still giving them a few more wins based on the fact their defense has been so good and also their quarterback situation has improved immensely, even if Brissett starts every game all season.
